Each quarter, AJ Bell takes the forecasts for the FTSE 100 companies from all the leading city analysts and aggregates them to provide the dividend outlook for each company.
- Aggregate dividend forecasts for the FTSE 100 in 2024 and 2025 are still going down and 2018’s all-time high of £85.2 billion is still just out of reach
- Analysts expect just 1% dividend growth in 2024 to £78.6 billion before a 7% increase in 2025 to £83.9 billion
- FTSE 100 firms have already unveiled plans for £38.5 billion in share buybacks in 2024, after £52 billion in 2023, with £3 billion in special dividends from HSBC on top
- Add in £10.8 billion of forecast dividends from the FTSE 250 and £38.2 billion of live or completed takeover offers and the FTSE 350 is offering £169.1 billion in total cash returns (dividends, plus buybacks, plus takeovers) on its £2.5 trillion market capitalisation for a ‘cash yield’ of 6.8%.
- However, investors must keep watching the (negative) momentum in FTSE 100 aggregate dividend forecasts and political developments once the general election is concluded.