- 62% of all analysts’ recommendations on FTSE 350 stocks are ‘buys’ entering 2024 and just 7% are ‘sells’
- This makes sense as the UK’s underperformance of its global peers means the market is getting cheaper (in relative and absolute terms)
- Analysts’ top picks beat the market in 2023 (but the least popular stocks did even better)
“As we enter 2024, 59% of all analysts’ recommendations are buys and just 8% are sells for constituents of the FTSE 100, the highest and lowest scores over the past ten years, respectively. For the FTSE 350 index 62% of all recommendations are positive ratings and just 7% negative ones, again the highest and lowest percentages since 2015,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. “Momentum players may feel inclined to stick with US equities and join the herd in running with the so-called Magnificent Seven. Contrarians may instead take to heart Mark Twain’s maxim that, ‘Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority it is time to pause and reflect,’ and ponder whether the analysts are on to something as they champion the unloved, and thus potentially undervalued, UK stock market.
Source: LSEG Datastream data, analysts’ consensus, London Stock Exchange. 2024 Data as of 9 January 2024
“Analysts have become progressively more bullish over the past three years. While this does not look so smart in terms of the UK market’s sluggish overall performance, it makes sense, as the FTSE 100 and FTSE 350 continue to lag their global peers and thus become progressively cheaper on a relative basis (and an absolute one, as earnings and dividends continue to grow).
“One way to assess which path may be the best one to follow is to study the efficacy of analysts’ stock recommendations over time and back-test the results.
“The bad news is the analysts’ top picks failed to beat the FTSE 100 index in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022, despite all of their diligence. However, they did do in 2023 (to repeat 2019’s success), thanks to thumping gains from CRH, 3i and JD Sports Fashion.
“This suggests there may be some truth in the idea that the huge flows of money into passive instruments such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mean there are opportunities for skilled stock-pickers.
“Sceptics will counter by saying that the least popular FTSE 100 stocks with analysts, as ranked by the percentage of ‘sell’ ratings attributed to them, went up more than the most popular ones and the index overall in 2023.
“This is not to poke fun. It just shows how hard picking individual stocks can be, even if it is your full-time job. Markets will tend to do what causes the greatest degree of surprise and analysts do not intentionally set out to sit on the fence. Their views and research shape the debate and help to form opinion, but markets will price in what the prevailing consensus is pretty quickly. What analysts try to do, and investors must do, is assess what the possible upside and downside surprises to the consensus could be, which is more likely, and what the impact upon a stock could be. Only then can risk and reward be properly measured.
“To further the case for the defence, the least popular names in the FTSE 100 did badly, with an aggregate total return of minus 20.5% against the plus 4.7% provided by the benchmark index. Knowing which names to avoid can be every bit as valuable as knowing which names to buy.
Source: LSEG Datastream data, analysts’ consensus, Marketscreener, London Stock Exchange. 2023 ratings data as of 6 January 2023.
“Analysts will take less satisfaction from how their labours worked out across the FTSE 350. When it came to the broader index, the most popular selections marginally underperformed the index and the least popular ones outperformed hugely.
Source: LSEG Datastream data, analysts’ consensus, Marketscreener, London Stock Exchange. 2023 ratings data as of 6 January 2023.
“No analyst sets off with the intention of joining the consensus. It just so happens that their views shape that consensus and almost by definition the consensus is priced in quickly, so if anything unexpected happens (as it tends to) then share prices will diverge from the anticipated path.
“The ultimate conclusion still probably has to be that broker research needs to be treated with a degree of caution (assuming that investors can get their hands on it in the first place), certainly in the cases where stocks seem universally popular.
“Anyone prepared to pick their own stocks rather than pay a fund manager or index-tracker fund to do it for them simply must do their own research on individual companies before they even think about buying or selling any of its shares.
“In sum, Warren Buffett seems spot on with his observation that, ‘you cannot buy what is popular and do well.’
“The stunning performance of the Magnificent Seven in America will put that to the test once more in 2024 and, closer to home, investors might like to know which stocks are most liked – and disliked – by analysts at the start of 2024. The two tables below list the names which investors may wish to analyse in greater depth, or simply avoid altogether, depending upon their view of the value of the research provided.”
Source: LSEG Datastream data, analysts’ consensus, Marketscreener, London Stock Exchange. Data as of 9 January 2024.
Source: LSEG Datastream data, analysts’ consensus, Marketscreener, London Stock Exchange. Data as of 9 January 2024.
