Another pre-Budget blow for the chancellor as borrowing higher than expected in October

Danni Hewson
21 November 2025
  • Borrowing for October comes in at £17.4 billion – £3 billion more than forecast by the OBR in March
  • Since the start of the financial year borrowing stands at £116.8 billion – £9 billion higher than the same period last year
  • Though borrowing in October was down £1.8 billion compared with the same month last year, it’s still the third highest for the month since records began after 2024 and 2020

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest public sector finances:

“Today’s figures will come as no surprise to the chancellor, but they are a timely reminder of the perilous state of the government’s finances.

“The pressure is on to dig into the scrabble bag and come up with enough high scoring tax measures that she can cover the increasing costs of benefits, wages and persistently high debt interest.

“Last year’s hike to employer National Insurance has helped, but Rachel Reeves needs to go much further if she’s to create the kind of headroom needed so the country isn’t treated to another repeat performance next year. With income tax back on the prohibited list, she’s going to have to get creative and it will take months, if not years, to fathom if her sums add up.

“Today’s surprise uptick in the energy price cap will add to pressure to deliver cost of living support to the most vulnerable, and she’s already intimated that she will ditch the two-child benefit cap. Those measures will only increase the burden on the Treasury’s depleted coffers and money markets will be watching closely to see if this Budget will include cost savings as well as tax increases.”

Danni Hewson
Head of Financial Analysis
Danni spent more than 19 years at the BBC, presenting and reporting on business news across a variety of programmes – including BBC Breakfast, BBC News Channel, BBC Look North and latterly Radio 5 Live’s flagship business programme ‘Wake up to Money’. She is now responsible for producing analysis and commentary across a broad range of subjects at AJ Bell, from financial markets, to economics and personal finance.

Contact details

Mobile: 07593 451 437

Email: danni.hewson@ajbell.co.uk

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