December borrowing comes in lower than forecast as tax and NI receipts soar

Danni Hewson
22 January 2026
  • Public sector borrowing in December was £11.6 billion – £1.4 billion less than had been forecast by economists and down 38% compared with December 2024
  • Total spending increase of £3.2 billion was more than offset by £7.7 billion jump in receipts
  • But total borrowing for the financial year to December 2025 is still the third highest on record for the period at £140.4 billion

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest public sector finances:

“The significant fall in government borrowing in December will be a relief for the Treasury, especially since January’s numbers are likely to look even better with a surge in self-assessment receipts expected.

“Spending nudged up compared with the previous year, primarily because of increases to benefit payments and pay rises, but that was more than offset by an increase in the cash coming into the government’s coffers.

“Frozen tax thresholds coupled with chunky pay rises mean people have been paying more tax, and Rachel Reeves’ changes to employer National Insurance also helped total receipts shoot up by £7.7 billion.

“But zoom out to take in the full financial year to date and the picture isn’t quite as rosy, with total borrowing to the end of December at levels only seen twice before. The deficit is reducing, but the pace of the reduction is glacially slow. With further increases to benefit payments on the way in April, the pressure on the public purse is still uncomfortable.

“Stabilisation is one thing and if cost pressures can be kept in check the path forward looks less boggy than what’s behind us. But inflation is still sticky, interest on all that debt is up on the same period last year and growth remains sluggish.”

Danni Hewson
Head of Financial Analysis
Danni spent more than 19 years at the BBC, presenting and reporting on business news across a variety of programmes – including BBC Breakfast, BBC News Channel, BBC Look North and latterly Radio 5 Live’s flagship business programme ‘Wake up to Money’. She is now responsible for producing analysis and commentary across a broad range of subjects at AJ Bell, from financial markets, to economics and personal finance.

Contact details

Mobile: 07593 451 437

Email: danni.hewson@ajbell.co.uk

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