- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has confirmed CPI inflation of 3.8% for September, meaning the state pension is set to rise by the July earnings growth figure of 4.8% in April 2026 under the triple lock (Source: Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2025 | ONS)
- The triple lock guarantee means the state pension will rise by the highest of average earnings growth, inflation or 2.5%
- With September’s inflation figure confirmed at 3.8%*:
- The full ‘new’ state pension should increase from £230.25 per week (around £11,973 per year) to £241.30 per week (around £12,548 per year) in April 2026
- The ‘old’ state pension should increase from £176.45 per week (around £9,175 per year) to £184.90 per week (around £9,615 per year)
- Assuming the personal allowance remains frozen, the full state pension will exceed the personal allowance of £12,570 by 2027/28 if the benefit increases by the minimum 2.5% in April 2027
- Government could face increasing pressure to address concerns over long-term sustainability of triple lock
Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, comments:
“The state pension should rise by an inflation-busting 4.8% from next April in line with July’s earnings growth figure, with September’s CPI inflation figure confirmed at 3.8%. While pensioners will be in a mood to celebrate, this sizeable uplift to the state pension is likely to engorge projections of future government spending and presents a dilemma for the Treasury.
“Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension rises annually by the highest of average earnings growth in May to July, September’s inflation figure or 2.5%. With earnings growth for the three months to July coming in at 4.8%, the state pension should increase to around £12,548 from April 2026 – putting it above £12,000 for the first time and within inches of the frozen personal allowance.
“The amount of money government spends on the state pension is already set to soar over the next few years, and the sustainability of the triple lock may once again come under scrutiny as a result of this latest bumper increase. If, as is expected short of a policy intervention, the triple lock sees the state pension increase above the personal allowance of £12,570 in April 2027, then the government will come under increasing pressure to either unfreeze the personal allowance or consider whether it can stand behind its promise to uphold the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament.
“Removing the freeze on the personal allowance would come at significant cost to the Treasury at a time when the chancellor’s fiscal headroom is already strained at best, while an overhaul of the triple lock would come with huge political risk before the next general election. Needless to say, it’s a headache Starmer and Reeves could do without ahead of a crucial Budget in November with economic and political pressure building both within the Labour Party and outside of it.”
Source: AJ Bell, HMRC*.
Source: AJ Bell, HMRC.
*Annual figures based on weekly state pension multiplied by 52 to provide a rough estimate.
