- Underdog Eagles win Super Bowl LIX
- Winners hail from the National Football Conference (or NFC)
- America’s S&P 500 index has traditionally performed better after an NFC win
- However, Eagles’ last win in 2018 coincided with the launch of Trump tariffs and a down year for US stocks
“The Philadelphia Eagles may have disappointed those who wanted to see the Kansas City Chiefs become the first team to win the Super Bowl for three years in a row, but investors with an equally keen sense of history may have been pleased to see the one-point underdogs prevail with ease,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. “This is because of the so-called ‘Super Bowl’ rule, which states that America’s S&P 500 stock market index tends to do better when the NFL championship is won by the team that hails from the National Football Conference, or NFC – and the Eagles hail from that side of the league.
“As a result of the merger between two rival competitions in the 1960s, the National Football League (NFL) is split into two conferences, National (NFC) and American (AFC), whose winners meet in the Super Bowl to decide the overall champion.
“The US stock market, as benchmarked by the S&P 500 index, has, on average, performed better in years when the team from the NFC has won and less well when the team from the AFC has claimed the Super Bowl and the players have won their championship rings.
“Before last night’s game, each side of the league had won the Super Bowl 29 times.
Source: NFL, LSEG Datastream data. First Super Bowl played in January 1967. Average returns based on calendar year of each game.
“This effect has become a little less pronounced over time, but it is noticeable nonetheless, even if the US stock market took victories for the AFC’s Chiefs in the last two seasons in its stride, judging by how the S&P 500 racked up a gain of more than 20% in each of 2023 and 2024.
Source: NFL, LSEG Datastream data. First Super Bowl played in January 1967. Average returns based on calendar year of each game.
“After the early dominance of the NFC’s Green Bay Packers, the 1970s saw the AFC’s Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers and Oakland (now Las Vegas) Raiders rule the roost, with only the NFC’s Dallas Cowboys getting in the way. Yet from an economic perspective, those teams ruled the field after an oil price shock, galloping inflation and soaring interest rates made the 1970s difficult years for investors.
“Come the 1980s, the Paul Volcker-led Federal Reserve had begun to tame inflation and cut interest rates, while Reaganomics’ supply-side reforms were also helping to drag America out of its post-Vietnam funk. As it happened, the NFC dominated that decade, as the team now known as the Washington Commanders, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers bagged multiple Vince Lombardi Trophies, thanks in no small part to their remarkable coaches, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells and Bill Walsh (and Andy Reid, Kansas City’s coach, hails from the ‘coaching tree’ of Super Bowl winners who worked directly under the 49ers’ Walsh or coaches who were in turn tutored and mentored by him).
“The NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl won the title on 13 straight occasions between 1985 and 1997, as Dallas and Green Bay established fresh dynasties in the 1990s, when benign inflation, low interest rates, globalisation, the Greenspan put and the rise of technology stocks gave US equities a further boost – although the AFC got its slice of the action as the Denver Broncos, under quarterback John Elway, ended a rotten run of three Super Bowl defeats to win back-to-back titles as the technology bubble inflated in 1998 and 1999.
“AFC teams, in the form of the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots (for Tom Brady’s first win), then copped the downdraft as the bubble burst and the S&P 500 plunged in 2001 and 2002, although it was the NFC’s New York Giants who were kings of the NFL hill when the Great Financial Crisis struck in 2008.
“Since then, the Patriots, Broncos, Steelers and Chiefs have returned to the summit, giving the AFC a chance to shine as US equities have forged a long bull run and close up the historic stock market performance gap between the two conferences – but the difference is still large enough to keep watchers of the Super Bowl rule interested.
“Sports fans who follow the NFL will remember Philadelphia’s last win in Super Bowl LII in early 2018 for many reasons, not least as they defeated the Patriots in a high-scoring game that did not feature a punt, and ultimately stopped New England from what would have been a treble of Super Bowls of their own.
“Investors will remember that game too, but possibly for different reasons. President Trump announced his first round of tariffs on China in 2018 and the US stock market lost momentum. The S&P 500 posted a relatively rare down year after a one-fifth tumble that autumn, as it became clear that the tariffs had taken a chunk out of US corporate profit margins and American company profits failed to live up to expectations as a result.”
Source: NFL, LSEG Datastream data. *Packers’ wins as part of the pre-1967 National Football League classified as National Football Conference (NFC). **Jets’ and Chiefs’ wins as part of the pre-1967 American Football League (AFL) classified as American Football Conference (AFC).
