UK economy growth confirmed as fastest in G7 in first quarter, but impact of UK-US trade deal remains uncertain

Danni Hewson
30 June 2025
  • UK GDP grew by 0.7% in the first three months of 2025, unrevised from the previous estimate
  • Service sector a driving force for growth in Q1
  • Household expenditure increased by 0.4%, revised from the first estimate increase of 0.2%
  • The household saving ratio decreased by 1.1%

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest quarterly UK GDP figures:

“Confirmation that the UK economy delivered the fastest growth of any G7 country at the start of the year feels almost redundant.

“A mix of tariff woes and tax hikes have created a period of such uncertainty and instability that many businesses have simply pressed pause on their future plans, and in some cases taken the decision to cut labour costs in order to set them up for what might be down the tracks.

“A deal between the UK and US is gradually working its way through the small print and the motor sector has been able to ramp up exports in the last few hours.

“But there are still questions about steel and aluminium exports, and about the potential impact on British manufacturing of Donald Trump’s trade talks with other countries which could include commitments to shift some production to the US.

“The early growth spurt looks set to be an anomaly rather than the sustained expansion the government needs if it’s to pad treasury coffers without resorting to tax rises or further spending cuts.”

Danni Hewson
Head of Financial Analysis
Danni spent more than 19 years at the BBC, presenting and reporting on business news across a variety of programmes – including BBC Breakfast, BBC News Channel, BBC Look North and latterly Radio 5 Live’s flagship business programme ‘Wake up to Money’. She is now responsible for producing analysis and commentary across a broad range of subjects at AJ Bell, from financial markets, to economics and personal finance.

Contact details

Mobile: 07593 451 437

Email: danni.hewson@ajbell.co.uk

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