- Unemployment holds firm at 4.9%
- Vacancy numbers fall to 707,000 in the three months to July – the lowest level in 12 years (excluding lockdowns)
- Average earnings growth edged up slightly to 3.5%
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest UK jobs figures:
“Despite what has been described as a ‘Burnham bounce’, alongside surveys indicating some signs of stabilisation in the UK jobs market, the number of vacancies has fallen again, and is down to its lowest level since autumn 2014 if you strip out lockdown lows.
“Small businesses – the life blood of the UK economy – are buckling under the pressure of increased costs and changes to employment law have made the prospect of taking a punt on a new face increasingly difficult.
“Big jumps in public sector pay and the timing of those increases continue to influence the headline wage growth numbers, which edged up slightly in the three months to June. This is something Bank of England rate setters will be mindful of when they meet to discuss interest rates next month. But weakness in the UK economy is likely to counteract any concerns about pay, and market expectation of a rate hike in September has fallen back slightly following today’s jobs data.
“There had been expectation that the unemployment number may have edged back a fraction over the summer months as a plethora of sporting and music events lifted confidence. But the heat has made life difficult for many people and productivity has been impacted.
“The retail sector has struggled to get shoppers through the doors and it’s notable that this is the sector which has seen the largest downturn in jobs looking at early estimates for July.
“The UK economy has become increasingly front-loaded, with the start of the year delivering the lion’s share of economic growth before becoming bogged down in Budget speculation. Businesses will be hoping the new PM and his chancellor will be acutely mindful of this heading into the autumn this year.
“Uncertainty is a mood killer and the mix of foreign and domestic volatility means companies are unlikely to do much more than tread water until the ripples subside.”
