Property sales look in rude health, but are likely to get weaker

Sarah Coles
29 May 2026

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, comments:

“Property completions were in relatively rude health in April, but we can expect them to look decidedly more feeble in the coming months.

“The annual rise looks impressive, but that owes an awful lot to stamp duty changes a year earlier. In April 2025, stamp duty thresholds returned to the levels they’d been at before the cuts in the 2022 mini-Budget. We saw the usual effect as people rushed to complete ahead of the changes, boosting sales figures in March 2025 and cutting them in April 2025 to their lowest number since lockdown in June 2020.

“The monthly figure is a closer reflection of how the market was faring, with sales dropping very slightly from a particularly strong March. April’s monthly sales figures were still the fifth highest we’ve seen over the past three years.

“April completion figures reflect sales agreed at the start of the year, most of them before the Iran war pushed mortgage rates up and confidence down. The fact that so many property sales made it through to completion despite everything that was going on in the wider world, demonstrates how much resilience there is in the UK property market. However, we can expect to see more weakness creep in over the coming months.

“Back in February, the average two- and five-year fixed rate mortgages were charging less than 5%. By May they were charging more than 6%. What’s more, at the start of the year there was every expectation that interest rates would fall during 2026, whereas now the next move is widely expected to be a rise. It has persuaded buyers to think twice, and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has been reporting steep falls in agreed sales in both March and April.

“For anyone contemplating buying their first home at the moment, the slowing of the market brings some opportunities. For those who are keen to go ahead, there could be more room for negotiation and driving a hard bargain. Meanwhile, for those who decide to pause their plans, there’s an opportunity to keep building their deposit, so their eventual mortgage becomes more manageable. If you qualify for a Lifetime ISA, you can put in up to £4,000 in the current tax year and the government will top it up by up to £1,000 – which is a decent leg up onto the property ladder.”

Sarah Coles
Head of Personal Finance

Sarah Coles is head of personal finance. She’s passionate about helping people get to grips with their money, so they have more freedom to do the things that really matter to them in life. She regularly provides insight and analysis for the press, writes columns and articles and appears on TV and radio. She covers everything from savings and investments to pensions and tax. Sarah is an award winning former financial journalist, spending almost 20 years working for publications from Bloomberg to Moneywise and AOL Money. She has worked as a financial spokesperson for the past nine years, and most recently won Headline Money’s Expert of the Year award.

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