VOL 23 / ISSUE 48 / 09 DECEMBER 2021 / £4.49
SUPERSTAR SMALL CAP FUNDS How they pick winning stocks
WEIGHING UP RETURNS
UK stock market performance in 2021 versus rest of the world
Invest in good company abrdn Investment Trusts We believe there’s no substitute for getting to know your investments first hand. That’s why we look to analyse and speak to companies intensively before we invest in their shares and while we hold them. Focusing on first-hand company research requires a lot of time and resources. But it’s just one of the ways we aim to seek out the best investment opportunities on your behalf. Please remember, the value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may get back less than the amount invested. Request a brochure: 0808 500 4000
invtrusts.co.uk
Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, registered in Scotland (SC108419) at 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen, AB10 1XL, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Please quote 2704.
Contents EDITOR’S
CFA UK Publication of the Year CFA UK Journalism Awards 2019
News Provider of the Year (Highly Commended) CFA UK Journalism Awards 2020
05 VIEW
Are income funds chasing stuck in the mud firms?
06 NEWS
China crackdown on US listings to benefit Hong Kong Stock Exchange / Stock markets stage full recovery after Omicron fears / New listing rules aim to bring more innovative companies to London / BT could go down a different path for its sports arm / Thungela plots bumper dividend despite coal price retreat / Stocks relevant to efforts to licence vaping for medical use
10
GREAT IDEAS
New: 3M / Polar Capital Global Healthcare Trust Updates: Odyssean Investment Trust / Tharisa / Supreme
16
FEATURE
Investment firms lead in our latest earnings revisions screen
18
FEATURE
Stock markets in 2021: how have they performed?
20 FEATURE
Superstar small cap funds: How they pick winning stocks
27 FEATURE
How loss aversion can trip up investors
DANNI
29 HEWSON
INVESTMENT
Is the new Twitter boss maverick enough?
32 TRUSTS
Fundsmith success: Smithson doubles in value in three years
37 FUNDS
The most consistent top performing Asian funds
38 FUNDS
How Lindsell Train ran out of steam
41
ASK TOM
Can I carry forward old allowances and make a big pension payment?
42 EDUCATION
What happens to your personal pension when you die?
46 INDEX
Shares, funds, ETFs and investment trusts in this issue
DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT Shares publishes information and ideas which are of interest to investors. It does not provide advice in relation to investments or any other financial matters. Comments published in Shares must not be relied upon by readers when they make their investment decisions. Investors who require advice should consult a properly qualified independent adviser. Shares, its staff and AJ Bell Media Limited do not, under any circumstances, accept liability for losses suffered by readers as a result of their investment decisions. Members of staff of Shares may hold shares in companies mentioned in the magazine. This could create a conflict of interests. Where such a conflict exists it will be disclosed. Shares adheres to a strict code of conduct for reporters, as set out below. 1. In keeping with the existing practice, reporters who intend to write about any
securities, derivatives or positions with spread betting organisations that they have an interest in should first clear their writing with the editor. If the editor agrees that the reporter can write about the interest, it should be disclosed to readers at the end of the story. Holdings by third parties including families, trusts, self-select pension funds, self select ISAs and PEPs and nominee accounts are included in such interests. 2. Reporters will inform the editor on any occasion that they transact shares, derivatives or spread betting positions. This will overcome situations when the interests they are considering might conflict with reports by other writers in the magazine. This notification should be confirmed by e-mail. 3. Reporters are required to hold a full personal interest register. The whereabouts of this register should be revealed to the editor. 4. A reporter should not have made a transaction of shares, derivatives or spread betting positions for 30 days before the publication of an article that mentions such interest. Reporters who have an interest in a company they have written about should not transact the shares within 30 days after the on-sale date of the magazine.
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
3
Never from concentrate We don’t think it’s a good idea to squeeze all your income from just a few stocks. So we launched the FP Octopus UK Multi Cap Income Fund on 26 November 2018 to blend small, medium and large UK companies. The result? The best performing fund, in the IA UK Equity Income sector, over three years. The value of your investment, and any income, can fall or rise. You may get back less than you invest. Smaller companies can fluctuate more in value and they may be harder to sell.
12 months to 26 November (%)
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
26/11/2018 26/11/2021
FP Octopus UK Multi Cap Income Fund S Acc
28.0
6.3
24.8
n/a
n/a
69.8
IA UK Equity Income Sector Average Fund Total Return
18.2
-9.9
9.2
-3.5
12.5
16.3
FTSE All-Share Index Total Return
15.7
-9.6
10.7
-1.5
13.5
15.8
Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Fees are deducted from capital which will increase the amount of income available for distribution. However, this will erode capital and may hinder capital growth. Before investing you should read the Prospectus, the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and the Supplementary Information Document (SID) as they contain important information regarding the fund, including charges, tax and fund specific
risk warnings and will form the basis of any investment. The Prospectus, KIID and application forms are available in English at octopusinvestments.com. Issued by Octopus Investments Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 33 Holborn, London, EC1N 2HT. Registered in England and Wales No. 03942880. CAM011620
Source: Lipper, 26/11/16 to 26/11/21. Returns are based on published dealing prices, single price mid to mid with net income reinvested, net of fees, in sterling.
EDITOR’S VIEW
Are income funds chasing stuck in the mud firms? High yields can be a sign of a business lacking growth or making the wrong capital allocation decisions ‘(UK income funds) prioritise dividends over any other kind of return from a company and therefore by definition penalise growth.’ This powerful statement is from an article by Paul Marshall from asset manager Marshall Wace. Published in the Financial Times, it has stirred a debate on whether investors should look more closely at how funds generate income. A typical income fund will invest in a company that is generating a lot of cash which is mostly paid out as dividends. That is an attractive proposition for many investors, particularly those in retirement who rely on their investments to replace part of the salary they enjoyed during their working life. Marshall says while UK income fund managers are trying to protect the income of pensioners, their strategy leads to investing in companies which might lose out longer term by handing out cash rather than investing it back in the business. ‘This is a form of financial decadence, discouraging capital investment and stifling growth and productivity,’ he adds. One problem with the UK market is that many of its largest companies are growing very slowly or have highly cyclical earnings. They’ve already conquered their industries and perhaps lack inspiration to try new things or improve efficiency. They are generating cash but, in Marshall’s view, are thinking about dividends first and then seeing what else they can do with any money left over. A cynic might say they are so focused on dividends as it is a way of keeping investors interested in their stock. Cash should only be paid out if a business has no other use for that money, and the pandemic might have acted as the catalyst for boardrooms to rethink their capital allocation priorities. We’ve already
seen a lot of companies rebase their dividends at a lower level and the consensus among income fund managers is that this was a good move as it helps make dividends more sustainable. It has also led some companies to think more about reducing debt to better cope with any future crises. Nonetheless, dividend cuts haven’t always gone down well. Many investors faced with this situation have bid down the share price even though the decision by a company to reinvest more money could provide greater benefits down the line. Vodafone (VOD) is a good example; the dividend was cut in 2019 but the share price has subsequently followed it down. Investors may be getting nearly the same yield as before, but the shares are worth a lot less. Increasingly people in retirement are staying invested in stocks and shares for longer. They hope the value of their portfolio continues to grow as well as generating income, and this combination of capital growth and dividends is certainly more important to pensioners than a few decades ago. Whether a fund has the words ‘income and growth’ or just ‘income’ in their name, if you want growth and dividends, look for one with a total return mandate as this implies the manager is trying to deliver both capital gains and income. Just remember that dividend growth can be more attractive longer term than high yield as the former can represent a company going places rather than one stuck in the mud. By Daniel Coatsworth Editor
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
5
NEWS
China crackdown on US listings to benefit Hong Kong Stock Exchange Didi’s delisting from the US is a watershed moment for Chinese companies thinking about joining the stock market
T
ensions between America and China have escalated in recent months. This has been due, in part, to a Chinese preference for its companies to list closer to home coupled with reports that it is intending to ban companies from listing on foreign exchanges. The Biden administration has exacerbated this situation by placing a dozen Chinese companies on a trade blacklist. And the US Securities and Exchange Commission has signalled its intention to force Chinese companies to delist if they fail to comply with government audits. This pressure between the two global superpowers has culminated in ride hailing company Didi delisting from the New York Stock Exchange only months after it first joined. This marks a disconcerting acceleration in China’s decoupling from American capital markets. In June Didi launched its $4.4 billion initial public offering on the US market, the largest listing by a Chinese company in America since Alibaba in 2014. The timing of the IPO was unfortunate in two key respects. First, it completed just before the Communist party celebrated its Centennial. This proved to be a point of consternation among Chinese officials, who suggested the group had ignored national security concerns relating to its veritable plethora of mapping and associated data. Second, it coincided with a concerted attempt by Chinese authorities to mitigate the influence of China’s largest technology companies. This was initiated in November 2020 when President Xi Jinping at the last minute prevented the dual listing of Ant Group on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. The share price reaction to Didi’s delisting announcement is indicative of the level of concern
6
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
felt by US investors. The group’s share price has more than halved since the June IPO price of $14 to its current level of $6.50. This forced delisting has the potential to weigh on the share prices of more than 240 Chinese groups with a total value of over $2 trillion listed in the US. These include some of China’s most significant corporations such as JD.Com, Alibaba and China Life Insurance. Chinese authorities seemingly want to ban public companies going public on foreign stock exchanges via the use of ‘variable interest entities’ or VIEs. These are legal structures often based in tax havens that have facilitated the US listings of Chinese companies such as JD.com and Alibaba. Hong Kong Stock Exchange may prove to be a natural beneficiary of this process as more Chinese companies may now select it as their preferred listing location. Didi has already confirmed plans to list on this exchange and Western fund managers are likely to switch their holdings in dual listed names such as Alibaba from the US to the Hong Kong shares. [MGar]
NEWS
Stock markets stage full recovery after Omicron fears Investors appear to have decided the new Covid-19 variant won’t derail economic growth
S
tock markets hate uncertainty, and the arrival of Omicron has created an information vacuum which is likely to persist until scientists and economists get to grips with the likely health and economic effects caused by the latest variant of concern. On 26 November, the so-called fear gauge, the VIX index, spiked higher as investors scrambled to hedge their portfolios, sending US markets down by around 2%. UK and European markets dropped by more than 3% with travel related shares and economically sensitive stocks, such as banks, taking the brunt of the fall. British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) dropped by as much as 20% and Lloyds (LLOY) dropped by close to 10%. Commodities like oil and copper sank as markets moved to price in lower global growth, while interest rates dropped. Comments from Moderna chief Stephane Bancel prompted another sell-off in markets on 1 December after he predicted a ‘material’ drop in effectiveness from current vaccines against the new variant. Fed chairman Jay Powell added to uncertainty on the same day after he surprised markets by saying the US central bank would discuss an increase in tapering (removing stimulus) at the December meeting, which sent bond yields higher and prices lower. Elevated volatility saw the VIX index climb from 18.58 on 24 November to 31.12 on 1 December. Historically, large spikes in the VIX index have been associated with ‘market capitulation’ and higher future stock prices.
Sentiment already appears to be shifting. The VIX has since dropped back to 22.02 and at the time of writing (7 Dec), the FTSE 100 index had recovered all its losses since the variant first dominated the headlines, and was trading slightly above pre-Omicron levels.
The index has been helped by a strong rebound in index heavyweights Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.). After falling as much as 15% on Omicron worries oil prices have staged a recovery rally following a meeting of oil producers’ cartel Opec+ (Dec 2) where Saudi Arabia and its allies agreed to press ahead with efforts to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day each month. Opec+ also hinted it would adjust production if necessary, which seems to have provided support to prices. Brent Crude has risen by around 8% to $71.70 per barrel since the meeting. Before the Opec+ meeting several countries including the US, China and the UK had indicated they would release supplies from their strategic oil reserves to help curb prices. [MGam] 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
7
NEWS
New listing rules aim to bring more innovative companies to London The downside is that small investors may have less of a voice
I
n a bid to improve the attractions of the UK stock market as a venue of choice, the Financial Conduct Authority has introduced new rules for companies wanting to float their shares in this country. Firms can now list with a dual class structure within the London Stock Exchange’s premium listing category to ‘encourage innovative, often founder-led companies onto public markets sooner and so broaden the listed investment landscape for investors in the UK’. The free float, or amount of shares an issuer is required to have in public hands, will be reduced from 25% to just 10%, ‘reducing potential barriers for issuers’ according to the regulator. Lastly, the minimum market value threshold for both the premium and standard listing segments of
the market will rise from £700,000 to £30 million to give investors ‘greater trust and clarity’ about the types of company with shares admitted to different markets. The FCA’s director of market oversight Clare Cole says the changes are designed ‘to meet the needs of an evolving marketplace, helping support new types of companies and giving investors more choice with appropriate protection’. While raising the minimum market capitalisation would help liquidity, reducing the available free float requirement to 10% and permitting a dual share structure will surely give small investors less of a voice. According to the UK Listing Review, between 2015 and 2020 London only accounted for 5% of the global IPO market. [IC]
BT could go down a different path for its sports arm A new agreement could scupper the proposed £600 million sale to streaming service DAZN BT’S PROTRACTED £600 million sale of its sports channels to streaming service DAZN could be off after reports emerged that the UK telecoms group was in separate talks with Discovery. The US broadcaster, which already operates the Eurosport channels, is thought to have proposed a joint venture with BT. BT Sport has rights to some
8
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
Premier League and exclusive Champions League football, plus Ashes cricket. Discovery holds a long-term agreement to show the Olympic Games in Europe. In the UK, DAZN is largely known for its boxing coverage, and the acquisition of BT Sport would bring considerable opportunity, and sports rights, to the unprofitable broadcaster. BT has itself been the subject
of takeover speculation in recent months after French telecoms billionaire Patrick Drahi built a 12.1% stake in the business. The UK business is a possible target for Deutsche Telekom, which owns a little more than 12% in BT itself. Takeover interest in the European telecoms sectors has ignited in the wake of private equity firm KKR tabling an offer to buy Telecom Italia. That move has prompted analysts to speculate where buyers might spot hidden value elsewhere in the sector given the lacklustre multi-year performance of its constituents. BT shares have rallied almost 30% since October, hitting 173.45p. [SF]
NEWS
Thungela plots bumper dividend despite coal price retreat The coal producer faces volatile commodity prices and growing investor backlash against companies that are ‘anti ESG’
D
espite observing a recent moderation in thermal coal prices, £518 million coal producer Thungela Resources (TGA) is on track to deliver a bumper maiden dividend – with a recent trading update (6 Dec) giving the shares a significant lift. The South Africa-based operator, spun out of Anglo American (AAL) in June, has seen benchmark coal prices moderate from $210 per tonne in October to $141 by the end of November though the discount at which its own coal sells to this price has narrowed. The fourth quarter is also seeing an improvement in export equity sales. These had been affected by failings at state-owned rail
operator Transnet, which has been struggling to get production to port. Mindful of coal price volatility, the company wants to maintain a significant cash buffer but with 8 billion rand or £377 million on the balance sheet at the end of November it has plenty of funds available to distribute to shareholders. It has committed to pay at least 30% of free cash flow as dividends and will announce its first payout alongside full year results in March 2022. Despite the post-update rally for the shares, Thungela’s valuation remains highly discounted. Based on Liberum’s forecasts it offers a 2022 dividend yield of 12.8% and a free cash flow yield of nearly 60%. This low valuation reflects the market’s increasing emphasis on avoiding fossil fuels, as sustainable investing grows in popularity and as governments move to phase out coal usage. [TS]
Stocks relevant to efforts to licence vaping for medical use The market has been slow to pick up on the news with the big vaping companies yet to react THE UK COULD soon be the first country in the world to licence e-cigarettes or vapes as a medicinal product available on prescription in an effort to help people stop smoking. The news from the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Authority sent shares in medical cannabis firm Kanabo (KNB) soaring more than 6%, although the rest of the sector
barely flickered and the large tobacco companies, who have invested billions in new products including vaping, were also unmoved. To get a licence, products would need to meet the MHRA’s standards of safety, quality and efficacy for medicinal products, following which doctors could decide on a case-bycase basis whether prescribing an e-cigarette to NHS patients would
help them to quit smoking. June Raine, chief executive of the MHRA, says: ‘The evidence is clear that e-cigarettes are less harmful to health than smoking tobacco and that nicotinecontaining e-cigarettes can help people quit smoking for good. The updated guidance on licensing requirements is a strong first step towards availability of safe and effective licensed e-cigarette products.’ If approved, the news would be negative for UK sales of other products designed to help smokers stop such as NiQuitin, manufactured by pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). [IC]
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
9
Buy 3M on the cheap before the market mood changes The maker of essential items is diversified, cash generative and undervalued
T
ruly excellent companies are seldom available on the relative cheap but US industrial giant 3M is a rare exception. The share price has been on the backfoot since August and that has left the business trading on multi-year lows on a price to earnings basis. It is dealing with some company-specific issues, but we believe these are largely transitory. On the assumption that 3M justifies our faith and demonstrates recovery, we believe there is substantial scope for the stock to re-rate higher over the coming 12 months or so. 3M, whose history goes back to 1902, manufactures and markets more than 60,000 products that range from adhesives to abrasives, automotive aftermarket products, medical protective gear and tapes. Some of its well-known products and brands
10
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
3M (MMM) $177.2
BUY Market cap:
$102.1 billion
include Nexcare, N95 respirator masks, Post-it, Scotch, ScotchBrite, Scotchgard, Thinsulate and many more day-to-day essentials. The shares are listed in the US and 3M is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices. MAIN ATTRACTIONS The company’s sheer scale and diversity remain two of its
chief attractions, developing and manufacturing all over the world. Innovation is another draw for investors. 3M’s corporate strapline is ‘science applied to life’ and research and development activities are right at the heart of the business, allowing 3M to design many proprietary products. ‘It developed the N95 masks 20 years ago for industrial purposes but was able to scale that up during the pandemic,’ says James Dowey, co-manager of the Liontrust Global Dividend Fund (B9225P6) which features 3M in its portfolio. 3M’s business model that throws off a lot of free cash, more than $6.6 billion in 2020 despite the pandemic shutting down manufacturing for several weeks. Analysts estimate a similar $6.5 billion free cash flow for 2021, and that’s after slashing
net debt by around $500 million to a forecast $1.45 billion. Such a powerful cash generating machine has seen 3M increase its annual dividend for 64 years in a row, even upping the payout during the teeth of the pandemic. It yields 3.3%. WHY HAVE THE SHARES BEEN WEAK? There are two main reasons for the recent share price sell-off. The first is ongoing litigation. 3M is facing thousands of claims that earplugs sold to the military designed to prevent hearing loss didn’t work. Rulings so far have been mixed with 3M prevailing in some trials, not so in others, leading to multi-million-dollar awards. Ringfenced funds for potential future payouts should limited the long-run damage. The other issue is cost inflation and 3M should be able to pass these onto customers. This is a
global issue impacting businesses of all shapes and sizes as raw materials and staff wages rise. A large part of 3M’s cost base is chemicals while it is also exposed to the Chinese automotive industry facing a shortage of microchips. Yet with vast scale comes tremendous pricing power, says Storm Uru, the other comanager of Liontrust Global Dividend Fund. He says there is often a one or two quarter time lag in terms of passing on extra costs, which has dragged on market sentiment in terms of 3M’s shares. This should be worked through in early 2022. LATEST EARNINGS 3M released third quarter earnings on 26 October 2021 showing revenue up 7.1% at $8.94 billion, and earnings per share of $2.45, both beating forecasts pitched at $8.65 billion and $2.21 respectively. Yet the share price still lost 2% on the day, an indicator of just how negative the market has felt towards the stock lately. During the quarter, the group returned $1.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Chief executive Mike Roman made a
point of flagging broad-based organic growth, and strong margins and cash flow. This leaves 3M on the cusp of what we believe will be a shift in the market mood towards the stock. Bear in mind this is a company running on operating margins of 22%, with 45%-plus return on equity and return on investment in the mid-teens. The 2022 price to earnings multiple is 17, a PE that hasn’t been consistently this low in about seven years. If we imagine that the PE returns to a level like 22 – this is perfectly realistic given it was in the 25-26 ballpark three years ago – it would imply a share price of more than $245 by the end of next year, simply based on existing 2023 earnings forecasts of $11.18 per share. UK investors will have to complete a W-8 BEN form for tax reasons to buy the shares, but this is a fairly simple process. [SF]
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
11
Buy cut-price Polar Capital Global Healthcare for defensive growth Performance is improving and the medium-term outlook for the sector looks positive
W
hile it may be slightly out of favour with investors at present, healthcare is a good addition to any portfolio. It tends to be relatively insensitive to what’s happening in the wider economy and demographic drivers, particularly in the West, are likely to underpin demand in the years to come as we emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. Investment Trust Polar Capital Global Healthcare (PCGH) trades at a 7.2% discount to NAV whereas International Biotechnology (IBT) and Worldwide Healthcare (WWH) trade at modest premiums. This likely reflects the historic underperformance of the Polar Capital vehicle, which struggles against its peers on a 10-year view; however, the last 12 months have seen a marked uptick in performance. This has been helped by large cap stocks, where the portfolio is focused, outperforming small caps and biotech plays with stretched valuations – a reversal of the trend heading into the pandemic. The trust’s innovations portfolio, which can account for as much as a fifth of its total holdings, has also been restructured so it is no longer as
12
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
exposed to high-risk UK micro caps which had proved to be a drag on performance. Managers James Douglas and Gareth Powell are focused on several themes which they believe can underpin durable medium-term growth. These include companies offering products and services which allow for the more efficient delivery of care without compromising on its quality, outsourcing of non-core activities and preventative medicine through vaccines and diagnostics. The most notable feature of the portfolio is the modest representation for pharmaceutical stocks – a 20.8% allocation as of 29 October 2021, compared with 36.7% for the MSCI All Country World Healthcare benchmark. The trust instead has a higher allocation than the benchmark to healthcare equipment, facilities, supplies and distributor businesses. The trust was launched in 2010 with the intention of being wound up in January 2018. This date was extended to March 2025 at which time the directors are required to propose liquidation or lay out new plans. The mandate was changed
POLAR CAPITAL GLOBAL HEALTHCARE TRUST
BUY
(PCGH) 293.2p Net assets: £416 million
in June 2017 to focus more on capital growth, where previously there was an emphasis on income; the yield is now a mere 0.7%. Ongoing charges come in at 1.09% which is comparable with other trusts in the healthcare space. ‘After a challenging period following the 2017 restructuring, the trust has become overlooked – with the market failing to notice the strong turnaround in performance,’ said analysts at Stifel in September. ‘The team appears to have rectified performance, and it is now the cheapest healthcare trust by some margin.’ [TS]
ODYSSEAN INVESTMENT TRUST (OIT) 156.5p
Gain to date: 60.5%
Original entry point: Buy at 97.5p, 10 September 2020 A TAKEOVER APPROACH for Clinigen (CLIN:AIM) provides another boost for shareholder Odyssean Investment Trust (OIT) and extends the trust’s formidable run of selecting takeover targets. Having attracted the attentions of activist Elliott, shares in specialist pharmaceutical products and services group Clinigen spiked on news (2 Dec) it is in talks with Triton Investment Management over a possible offer. It becomes the seventh company in Odyssean’s portfolio to receive a bid since November 2019. Running a concentrated portfolio of smaller companies, Odyssean’s managers Stuart Widdowson and Ed Wielechowski have proven expertise in picking companies that could prove attractive to private equity or strategic trade buyers. Results for the six months to September 2021 revealed a 13.5% rise in Odyssean’s net asset value per share, exceeding the 9.1% increase for the MSCI ex IT plus AIM Total Return index. ‘More impressively,’ explained chairman Jane Tufnell, ‘this performance has been delivered with an average net cash position in the portfolio of 22%, demonstrating the underlying strength of the performance of the portfolio companies.’
SHARES SAYS: Odyssean Investment Trust remains a buy. [JC]
THARISA (THS) 117.6p
Loss to date: 10.9%
Original entry point: Buy at 132p, 28 October 2021 PLATINUM GROUP METALS and chrome miner Tharisa (THS) may have drifted lower amid recent price weakness for its products and Covid-related concerns in South Africa but we think the shares will regain momentum as evidence piles up of its improved cash flow in 2022. On 2 December the company reported a record pre-tax profit of $185.3 million for the 12 months to 30 September, up 144.5% year-on-year on a 46.9% increase in revenue as margins improved. Free cash flow totalled more than $100 million and the dividend was up 157% to a record level. The company also ended the year with a strong balance sheet, with net cash of $46.6 million. As the Vulcan processing plant is brought on stream operating costs are expected to come down and the company’s carbon footprint is also expected to reduce. CEO Phoevos Pouroulis tells Shares the company is geared up to manage Covid risks despite the emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa. This reflects the fact the open pit Tharisa mine is ‘socially distanced by the nature of the operations’, with clinics and track and tracing also set up on site.
SHARES SAYS: Stick with Tharisa. [TS] 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
13
SUPREME (SUP:AIM) 200p
Gain to date: 6.7%
Original entry point: Buy at 187.5p, 27 May 2021 OUR ‘BUY’ CALL on Supreme (SUP:AIM) is 6.7% in the money and we remain enthused by the fast-moving consumer products maker’s growth and income potential. Strong first half results (7 Dec) demonstrated the resilience of the batteries, vaping and vitamins specialist, with sales up by 9% to £61.1 million and pre-tax profit powering 25% higher to £8.5 million, driven by organic growth, acquisitions and new product launches; cashgenerative Supreme also declared a maiden dividend of 2.2p per share. Gross margin improved from 25% to 30%, driven in large part by faster growth in highermargin vaping and sports nutrition categories,
which the group mostly manufactures itself. Encouragingly, Supreme expects adjusted EBITDA for the year to March 2022 will be ‘at least in line’ with market expectations following a good start to the second half and has ‘consciously invested in additional stock of key lines and raw materials’ to provide shelter from any near-term supply chain disruption. Following the results, Berenberg noted that NHS prescriptions will be positive for its vaping business and the sports nutrition and wellness division is ‘growing nicely’.
SHARES SAYS: Keep buying at 200p. [JC]
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ENTERPRISE TRUST www.icg-enterprise.co.uk ICGT Disclaimer No part of the information contained herein may be reproduced or redistributed in any form, by any means without the prior express written consent of ICG Enterprise Trust plc (“ICGT”). The information and any views contained herein is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument, is not to be relied upon in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities; and is provided solely as reference material for background purposes. You should refrain from investing in ICGT unless you fully understand all the risks involved and you independently determine that the investment is suitable for you. ICGT is not your designated investment advisor. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgement of ICGT, who makes no representation or warranty, express or implied as to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of this document and accept no responsibility for any loss arising for any action taken or not taken by anyone using the information contained herein. This document is not to relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee regarding future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied is made regarding future performance.
ICGET40-FUT-210x297-Nov2021.indd 1
07/12/2021 09:41
FEATURE
Investment firms lead in our latest earnings revisions screen Retailers also looking smart but travel and leisure stocks have been hit by Omicron
O
ur latest review of the best and worst earnings revisions across the FTSE 350 throws up a few surprises in terms of sectors and individual stocks, particularly in the light of their relative performance. There are three distinct clusters of winners, split between investment, real estate and consumer discretionary companies. Among the investment companies, Molten Ventures (GROW) – previously known as Draper Esprit – is the clear winner with an average 30% upgrade for the next two years after it raised its earnings guidance last week. IP Group (IPO) and 3i (III) have average upgrades of 20.5% and 13.8% respectively. In the property sector, there are steady upgrades for commercial real estate firms
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| SHARES | 09 December 2021
Big Yellow (BYG), British Land (BLND), Hammerson (HMSO), Land Securities (LAND) and Tritax Eurobox (BOXE), which tallies with their strong performance of late. In the consumer sector, there are hefty upgrades for Marks & Spencer (MKS), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) and AO World (AO.), which in the case of the latter look completely at odds with the recent 12-month low in its shares. Individual stocks of note are equipment rental firm Ashtead (AHT), drinks firm Diageo (DGE), which has been making 12-month highs of late, and high street lenders HSBC (HSBA) and NatWest (NWG). Following the discovery of the new Omicron variant there are sizeable earnings downgrades for several travel and leisure stocks. Among the biggest casualties
are low-cost airline EasyJet (EZJ) with an average 27% downgrade for the next two years, and bus and rail firms FirstGroup (FGP) and National Express (NEX) with average earnings downgrades of around 30% and 19% for the same period respectively. More curiously, there are middling downgrades for several property firms, which seems at odds with the sector’s strong overall performance. Private rented accommodation provider Grainger (GRI) has seen its earnings forecasts cut by an average of 15% for each of the next two years, while central London developer Great Portland Estates (GPOR) and mixed-use property owner UK Commercial Property REIT (UKCM) are suffering high singledigit downgrades for both years. Ingredients firm Tate & Lyle (TATE) also features on the list
FEATURE
with an average 17% earnings downgrade, but in this case, it is due to the firm’s decision to sell off a controlling stake in its Primary Products business and focus on Food and Beverage Solutions, which has better margins and higher growth prospects, but means it incurs a drop in revenues and profits. By Ian Conway Senior Reporter
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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FEATURE
Stock markets in 2021: how have they performed? Valuations are not stretched when compared with earnings growth forecasts
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otation has been a hallmark of 2021 with the early part of the year seeing growth shunned for value, before whipsawing back again as the year progressed. As the Omicron strain keeps Covid-19 very much in the headlines it looks like volatility will remain elevated in global stock markets as we approach 2022. Pullbacks and shakeouts can be useful for investors, creating buying opportunities and helping the market to reset expectations. The past 12 months have seen three or four market shakeouts, the most recent on 26 November when the UK’s benchmark lost 3.6% in a day. The conventional wisdom says that investing in the UK has been a bit of a disaster in recent years and if you look at the divergence between the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 you can see why people might have come to that conclusion. This year’s 9.4% year to date performance of the FTSE 100 beats average long-range annualised returns of about 5% to 6% but that is less than half the near-23% of the S&P 500. For context, the MSCI World index is up 14.7% in 2021 and Euro Stoxx 50 is 15.2% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang
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Hong Kong’s Heng Seng has been impacted by China’s technology sector crackdowns
Seng, massively impacted by China’s technology regulations crackdown, has lost 15% this year. FTSE 100 IS NOT THE UK While the FTSE 100 is the UK stock market benchmark it is worth stating again that this
is anything but a measure of the UK’s economic health. It shows the performance of the biggest companies, but these are concentrated in a handful of sectors and they earn most of their profits in the rest of the world, not here in the UK. According to data from Fidelity,
FEATURE just 24% of the FTSE 100’s sales are domestic, compared with 51% of the FTSE 250. More than half of the value of the FTSE 100 is represented by commodities, financials and consumer staples. This was true in 2000, when an additional 30% of the index was in technology, media and telecoms stocks. TMT weightings have dwindled to next to nothing as companies have been taken over or gone out of business while the other stodgy sectors have grown more important. No wonder the FTSE 100 has gone virtually nowhere in two decades.
Yet the FTSE 250 tells a very different story. The mid-cap index’s 2021 performance has been broadly similar to its larger company cousin, up 10.6% year-to-date but has increased more than three-fold since 2000. Roughly matching the trebling in value of the S&P 500. Viewing UK stock market performance through this lens offers a far more compelling
case for investing your money in UK companies, but only if you ignored many of those big, boring businesses in the FTSE 100. HEATING UP BUT NOT OVERHEATED On the face of it investors of a cautious nature might look at the S&P 500 and pause for thought. The index has risen 4.5-times in 12 years, quite the epitaph for the wreckage of the financial crisis.
‘If you look at the history of bull markets, the shape of the S&P chart will look familiar,’ says Fidelity. Stock markets climb a wall of worry, grinding higher as investors slowly put their fears to one side. Then at some point in the process, they throw caution to the wind, the glass becomes half full and the trajectory of the chart moves closer to the vertical. ‘Exactly the same thing happened towards the end of the 1982-2000 bull run.’
On that basis, the good times might continue for a while yet and you can make a good argument that valuations are not yet at the eye-watering levels of 2000, especially when measured against the much more expensive bond market today. Investors need to look through the windscreen and not dwell too much on the rear-view mirror, and Goldman Sachs provides some encouraging data points. While in valuation terms the FTSE 250 looks more expensive than the FTSE 100, with a price that’s 17.7-times expected earnings versus 12.4 for the blue-chip index. But look at the forecast earnings growth and that looks more than justified – Goldman Sachs estimates that FTSE 250 earnings will grow fivetimes faster than those in the FTSE 100 (53% vs 9%). And it’s worth pointing out that the FTSE 250 index’s valuation multiple is much lower than the 21.6 for the S&P 500. By Steven Frazer News Editor
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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SUPERSTAR SMALL CAP FUNDS How they pick winning stocks
By James Crux Funds and Investment Trusts Editor
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mong the best kept investment secrets is the fact smaller companies typically outperform larger companies over the medium and long term thanks to characteristics ranging from innovation and faster organic growth to entrepreneurial management, agility in the face of change and the greater likelihood of a takeover bid. Within the UK’s small cap funds and investment trusts sectors is an elite cohort of collectives that have consistently outperformed over economic and stock market cycles, each 20
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pursuing a winning process that should pique the interest of investors. Using data from FE Fundinfo, Shares has uncovered the best-performing UK small cap funds and trusts of the past 10 years, a sufficiently long timeframe to include stock market ups and downs and therefore a good indicator of a fund’s consistency. In this article we reveal some of the secrets of their success, highlight key points of differentiation and the philosophies and processes that are enabling these portfolios to make money for investors.
10-YEAR STAR TURNS
CONSISTENCY COUNTS
Our table of top 10-year total return performers is headed up by a trio of investment trusts; Oryx International Growth Fund (OIG) has generated more than 740% return, the Dan Whitestonesteered BlackRock Throgmorton (THRG) is up by the best part of 600%, while Henderson Smaller Companies (HSL) has delivered a total return north of 500%. Steered by Christopher Mills and his team at Harwood Capital Management, Oryx International Growth’s success stems from an unwavering focus on firms with good prospects, active management and conservative balance sheets, a winning formula that continues to serve shareholders exceptionally well. The year to March 2021 proved another fruitful one for Oryx, with net asset value increasing 86% to £16.42 per share and the share price increasing 122% to £14.90. Despite this stellar long-run record, Oryx shares trade on an 8.7% discount to NAV.
Trading at a 9.5% NAV discount is Henderson Smaller Companies, which has a formidable longterm performance record since Neil Hermon was appointed lead fund manager in 2002. In the year to May 2021, the trust outperformed its Numis Smaller Companies Index ex-Investment Companies benchmark by 4.4%, marking the 16th year of outperformance in the 18 years Hermon has been managing the portfolio, and investors were also treated to the 18th consecutive year of dividend increase. Aiming to maximise shareholders’ total return by investing in UK-quoted smaller companies, the consistency of this outperformance reflects the quality of the investment style and approach of Hermon and his team, which also encompasses Indriatti van Hien and Shivam Sedani, a trio that looks for quality growth at the right price. Hermon says: ‘The (consistent long-term) performance has principally come from stock picking. Frankly, it’s the ability for us to find and
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select companies that will deliver great long-term returns for investors.’ He stresses that the consistency of the approach is key. He is on a quest to buy quality companies with above-average growth potential and defines the quality criteria by what he dubs the ‘4Ms’. He looks at a company’s business model; its economic franchise, competitive advantage and pricing power. Secondly, he assesses the management team. Next is money, by which he means the strength of the balance sheet and cash flow. Last is earnings momentum – the ability to beat market expectations and maintain earnings growth into the future. Pressed for prime examples of classic ‘4Ms’ in the portfolio today, Hermon highlights ESG-focused fund manager Impax Asset Management (IPX:AIM) and highflying media group Future (FUTR). ‘We look for those “4Ms” in the portfolio companies and it is a process that hasn’t changed over that 18 year period,’ explains Hermon. ‘It works very well. The average holding period of a stock in the portfolio is over five years, so we’re very much long-term investors. That’s been a key driver. Some of our best returns have come from those conviction positions that have been held for a long period of time.’ Capital growth, rather than income, has driven these returns, though Hermon likes his companies to pay a dividend and the avoidance of ‘blue sky’ or loss-making businesses had helped along the way. It is also worth noting that Henderson Smaller Companies actually has a mid cap bias; this reflects the fact Hermon is keen to ‘run the winners’ as they move up through the market cap ranks, as well as liquidity and benchmark weighting reasons.
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“We’re not small companies, we’re smaller companies. We have a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) process and philosophy, but we also have a bit of a value bedrock” - Neil Hermon -
‘We’re not small companies, we’re smaller companies,’ adds Hermon. ‘And we’re not a one trick pony – we can do well in both up and down markets. We have a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) process and philosophy, but we also have a bit of a value bedrock.’ THE WHITESTONE WAY BlackRock Throgmorton’s success reflects what manager Dan Whitestone argues is the company’s ‘unique toolkit relative to other trusts in the peer group, and proven investment process which focuses on stock specific alpha generation rather than taking top down macro views’. Over the past five years, Throgmorton has seen extremes of volatility, with a constant flow of macroeconomic headwinds, most recently the pandemic. Yet as Whitestone explains: ‘Given the focus of our investment process is bottom-up, we take little to no notice of these factors, but they serve as an important reminder to us that stock and industry specifics
triumph over short-term macro noise that often occupy the news headlines.’ This £947 million cap trust, trading on a 1.8% premium at the time of writing, aims to achieve long-term capital growth by investing in small and mid-cap growth companies which Whitestone thinks have potential to grow their earnings at elevated rates for many years and so have the potential to become much bigger companies. ‘These companies have strong management teams, with a protected market position, a unique and compelling product offering, and are well financed. And they are unlikely to be affected by the short-term vagaries of the market or political environment,’ he says. Companies in the portfolio range from industrial and electronic equipment supplier Electrocomponents (ECM) and luxury watch retailer Watches of Switzerland (WOSG) to communications tech developer Gamma (GAMA:AIM) and cutting-edge science tools designer Oxford Instruments (OXIG).
Whitestone invests in companies that are leading industry change. He says we are living in a world where advancements in technology are ‘accelerating many long-term secular trends and this is fundamentally changing the behaviours of both consumers and corporates influencing how, what and where they purchase goods and services.’ The BlackRock money manager also points out ‘we are witnessing accelerated market share shifts intra-industry either through product-led investment, or enhanced network and scale capabilities, or manufacturing models with lower cost unit economics which means that the pricing architecture of legacy incumbents can be undermined.’ This can be great for the winners but can
‘create catastrophic problems for the losers that aren’t able to adapt to the fast-changing landscape of the industry in which they operate in’. A significant point of difference for BlackRock Throgmorton is it takes short positions, where it would profit from a falling share price. ‘This means that the trust can not only capitalise on owning differentiated growth companies that see their share prices multiply over time, but also from shorts in companies that operate in challenged industries, with weak financial structures, that fall victim to industry change,’ says Whitestone. KEEPING ITS DISCIPLINE JPMorgan UK Smaller Companies Trust (JMI) is another uber-consistent trust. Being disciplined is extremely important to co-managers Katen Patel and Georgina Brittain. ‘Staying true to our process and focusing on the fundamentals of the companies within our investment universe in the face of perceived market sentiment changes or periods of heightened market volatility, has stood us in good stead over the long-term,’ says Patel, also flagging the use of earnings momentum as a key part of the investment process. ‘Spending our research time on businesses that have delivered better than expected operational performance has been really helpful. This allows us to focus on exciting early stage names and also businesses that are starting to show signs of a successful turnaround,’ he explains. Patel points out that the numbers are the most important variables looked at when deciding whether to buy or sell a stock. Companies are sold ‘when that stock becomes too large for our remit and/or when the company’s earnings momentum is decelerating. In such instances, we would rather sell the stock and reinvest it in something that will gives us better returns over the longer term,’ says Patel. ‘Exits require a quick decision and we try to remove emotions from these investment decisions. We keep our focus on the numbers, which makes it easy for us to be swift in our response.’ Patel continues to see attractive opportunities within the UK smaller companies space, noting their continued long-term outperformance 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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over large caps. ‘One company that we believe presents attractive growth opportunities is Halfords (HFD), which has very compelling ESG credentials; the company is focused on independent transportation – including bikes and e-scooters – and its commitment to championing all types of electric transportation, and to helping its customers make the transition from petrol and diesel cars to electric vehicles, is what makes us excited about its future.’
ROARING AHEAD Within the open-ended funds universe, Liontrust UK Smaller Companies (B8HWPP4) can be rightly proud of generating a 10-year total return of 485%. Managed by Anthony Cross, Julian Fosh, Victoria Stevens and Matt Tonge, this formidable record is a result of the fund’s tried-and-tested ‘economic advantage’ process, which seeks to identify companies with a durable competitive advantage that allows them to defy industry competition and sustain a higher than average level of profitability for longer than expected. Additional ingredients that make up its secret sauce, according to co-manager Stevens, include looking for managers with ‘skin in the game’. When applying the Liontrust economic advantage process to smaller companies, one of the key extra requirements the portfolio managers look for is a minimum 3% management equity ownership level. ‘An “owner-manager” culture not only aligns 24
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the interests of company management with ours as shareholders, but also encourages them to manage the business more conservatively,’ argues Stevens. She also explains that economic advantage in smaller companies is ‘created and maintained by talented individuals. Research demonstrates equity ownership motivates key employees, helps to secure a company’s competitive edge and leads to better corporate performance.’ Managing the risk of investment bubbles or fads is a further facet behind Liontrust UK Smaller Companies’ long-run success. You won’t find these fund managers investing in ‘jam-tomorrow’ stocks on lofty valuations with ‘little to underpin them other than a good story’, says Stevens. ‘Having a clearly-defined investment process helps combat emotional bias, enforcing evaluation of opportunities within a distinct framework,’ she continues. ‘We also manage this risk by avoiding loss-making companies, instead focusing on stocks which generate profits and cash flow to underpin their market valuation.’ Furthermore, all holdings are graded on risk factors ranging from financial and ESG risk to product dependency, customer dependency, pricing power, valuation and acquisition risk, and the resulting overall risk score determines that stock’s portfolio weight. ‘We invest a smaller proportion of the fund in riskier companies,’ says Stevens, ‘with a maximum weight of 4% in any single holding. This leads to lower overall portfolio volatility, while still allowing exposure to high-growth smaller companies.’ Holdings include patent translations-tointellectual property support services provider RWS (RWS:AIM), where long-run driving force and executive chairman Andrew Brode still owns 23% of the equity. According to Stevens, RWS is ‘rich in the intangible assets which our economic advantage process seeks out due to their ability to confer a sustained competitive advantage’. RWS boasts strong intellectual property through the know-how of its skilled translators, who often combine both a language and a scientific academic discipline, and its intellectual property advantage was ‘further strengthened through the acquisition of SDL, with its proprietary technology. ‘The company’s scale and coverage of overseas offices has also created a powerful distribution
“Eckoh has patented intellectual property, a sticky customer base affording it an embedded distribution network and enjoys recurring revenues of over 70% of turnover” - Victoria Stevens -
network, allowing RWS to service the needs of large global enterprise clients across all jurisdictions.’ One holding in the Liontrust fund is Eckoh (ECK:AIM), a provider of software solutions used in customer contact centres which has also developed a patented payment solution which enables customer payment information to be received in a secure way. Stevens says Eckoh is an example of a stock which possesses all three of the core intangible assets the economic advantage process seeks: it has patented intellectual property, a sticky customer base affording it an embedded distribution network and enjoys recurring revenues of over 70% of turnover. AMATI’S TEAM APPROACH Over the last 10 years, TB Amati UK Smaller Companies (B2NG4R3) has returned almost 360%, success which Amati Global Investors’ fund manager Anna Macdonald pins on the fact that ‘we run all our smaller companies products (the TB Amati UK Smaller Companies Fund, Amati AIM VCT and IHT portfolio service) as a team, pooling our knowledge and expertise.’ She says the smaller company fund gives investors ‘exposure to small and medium sized companies that we believe can deploy capital at
high rates of return. This requires management teams who have deep knowledge of their market segments and the personal skills and commitment necessary to develop a business successfully over the long term.’ In addition, she says: ‘We study different industries to understand how innovative approaches and technologies can create niches where smaller businesses will be able to find significant opportunities. Our ability to actively seek these opportunities, and hold them for the long term, drives our performance.’ Among the holdings is eyewear frames specialist Inspecs (SPEC:AIM), floated on AIM in 2019 by founder/CEO Robin Totterman. ‘He retains a significant stake in the business, something we consider a big tick in the box, as it confirms shareholders and managers are aligned,’ explains Macdonald. Making own brand and licensed frames for spectacles and sunglasses, Inspecs has grown organically and via acquisition to become a top five player in the market. It has diversified frame production away from China, a country where 90% of the world’s frames are made. Macdonald says the company also acquired ‘excellent distribution throughout Europe when buying Essenbach, a German competitor, in a significantly earnings accretive acquisition’. 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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THIS IS AN ADVERTORIAL
Managing money through a tumultuous cycle A clear focus on stock selection has helped the team at Brunner navigate a tumultuous year for both value and growth investors… Since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the assumptions that have driven markets for the last decade have been turned on their heads. For most of the post-recession period, growth stocks pushed global markets to record highs, while ‘value’ stocks languished on the other side of an ever-widening valuation gap. However, the last two years have been far from ‘normal’, as populations around the world have experienced successive wide-ranging lockdowns. One impact these lockdowns have had is to upset the apple cart for growth investors; with value stocks surging ahead in the latter half of 2020 and into 2021 as lockdowns were lifted and economies reopened. That trend has since reversed and markets are now painting a more nuanced picture, with neither ‘style’ dominating. This complicated context could lead to frustration for investors. Increasingly over the last ten years, fund managers have defined themselves by their style. But if these styles are going to fall in and out of favour, it’s hard to know where to look for returns without having to anticipate these rotations. A precise instrument This is where a stock-focused approach, which doesn’t favour either style, can come into its own. This has certainly been true for the team behind Brunner (BUT) over the last year. It is the fifth-strongest performing trust in the AIC Global sector over the 12 months to 26 November 2021, returning 20.5% - ahead of the FTSE All World Index return of 20.3% over the same period. This success has been achieved in part due to the team’s even-handed approach to the question of ‘growth versus value’. The team look for high quality, established, profitable companies across various sectors. They like growth businesses and will invest in them provided the valuation stacks up. Similarly, they reject the notion that value stocks are inherently low quality. In practice, this means that the team looks for businesses across a breadth of sectors, seeking to identify those that they believe exhibit sustainable growth and profitability on attractive valuations.
Healthy options The healthcare sector, BUT’s largest absolute and relative sector allocation, exemplifies this approach. They like the long-term, secular drivers of growth which support the sector – ageing populations, the rising middle class across the globe and a consequent demand for better healthcare provision, and the nature of businesses within it, which often have high barriers to entry and sticky customer relationships. Some parts of the sector have benefitted from the pandemic, such as vaccine producers and diagnostics providers, and the team has found opportunities here where they believe valuations are not too stretched. Other areas of healthcare have been punished by markets due to the impact of the pandemic on their operations, such as providers offering elective surgeries. The team believes there are strong long-term growth drivers for these businesses and that they should experience a recovery as economies normalise. Future cycles The team’s flexibility means that Brunner had exposure to some of the cyclical stocks that benefitted from the rotation away from growth earlier in the year. However, the managers emphasise that these companies are expected to deliver strong, secular growth beyond this rotational trend. An example is Assa Abloy, a Swedish conglomerate that is a world leader in entranceway security. It has high profitability and supplies the residential and commercial building trades – both of which were initially hit when the uncertainty of early lockdowns caused the markets to draw a pessimistic outlook for the sector but have since recovered on strong demand. The team expects the sector to maintain strong growth through the cycle. Similarly, travel and leisure has experienced mixed fortunes over the last eighteen months. Initial lockdowns suggested travel was off the cards for some time and businesses in the sector, such as Booking. com, suffered deep price cuts as a result. However, domestic travel has since recovered and flourished in many economies, with the company’s share price surging as the vaccine outlook became more positive in the latter half of 2020. As global travel continues to open up, the team expects the company to continue to experience strong growth.
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Brunner Investment Trust is a client of Kepler Trust Intelligence. Material produced by Kepler Trust Intelligence should be considered as factual information only and not an indication as to the desirability or appropriateness of investing in the security discussed. Kepler Partners LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales at 70 Conduit Street, London W1S 2GF with registered number OC334771. Full terms and conditions can be found on www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor
FEATURE
How loss aversion can trip up investors We explore the example of Centrica where emotions got in the way of facts
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ehavioural scientists have long known that investors’ biggest obstacle to achieving success is likely to be themselves. Science has shown that people are predictably irrational, especially when it comes to making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, in other words, when making investment decisions. In this article we explain one of the most powerful psychological factors that influences investors, loss aversion. We look at how pain from a past loss can create a mental block or bias which prevents investors from properly appraising new facts in an unbiased way. Under the well-known efficient markets hypothesis stock prices are supposed to reflect all publicly available information while new information is quickly assimilated. Over the last few decades scientists have discovered this neat description of investor behaviour has a few chinks. PAIN TRUMPS PLEASURE Let’s play a game where you must guess heads or tails in a coin toss, and it costs you £100 if you guess incorrectly. How much would you expect to be paid if you guessed correctly? Logically you would demand at least £100 and possibly slightly more, assuming a fair toss,
because the long-term odds are 50/50. Anything above £100 would provide you with a tidy profit over the long run. The surprising thing is that when investment strategist at GMO James Montier asked more than 600 fund managers the same question, the average response was just over £200. In other words, the managers needed to win twice as much to make the bet attractive. In general people hate losses somewhere between two and two and-a-half times as much as they enjoy gains. This is loss aversion in action. Losses hurt more than gains, and this seems to be hard wired into our brains and dates back millions of years.
LEARNING FROM PAST MISTAKES When Shares picked energy company Centrica (CNA) in December 2019 as a stock to buy for the year ahead, at the time we thought the shares had a good chance of performing well and a low chance of losing money. We believed the deleveraging of the group via the sale of oil and gas production assets and the renewed ambition of the British Gas retail division to be the lowest cost provider in the market would reenergise the company’s fortunes. However, the company was dogged throughout 2020 by operational issues as well as pandemic headwinds, and 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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FEATURE
the shares lost around half their value. While not the worst of our stock picks that year it did detract from the overall performance of our ‘stocks for 2020’ portfolio, but fortunately, we had some winners and ended up with an average gain of 4.8% in 2020 compared with an 8.7% loss for the FTSE All-Share. In the Autumn of 2021, Centrica popped up on one of Shares’ earnings revisions screens, indicating it was receiving stronger than average earnings upgrades from analysts.
The news flow at the time suggested the company was well positioned to pick up stranded clients from the failure of rival energy providers impacted by the spike in natural gas prices. Although it wasn’t clear how significant this might become, the shares appeared to be responding positively to the news. Probably because we were unduly influenced by the pain of making a bad call on Centrica in the past, we couldn’t quite reach a positive decision on the stock
and took a wait and see attitude. Well-respected economist and investor John Maynard Keynes said: ‘When the facts change, I change my mind, what do you do, Sir?’ We may have fallen victim to cognitive bias by placing less weight on the facts in front of us and instead wallowing in the pain of our past mistake. While we have been ‘waiting and seeing’, Centrica shares have gained 33% over the last two months. As Shares can attest to, it is hard to ignore the past and only focus on what is in front of you, but it is well worth the effort. Consciously focus on the salient facts and at least try to place less weight on prior information which may be out of date or less relevant. By Martin Gamble Education Editor
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DANNI HEWSON
AJ Bell Financial Analyst
Is the new Twitter boss maverick enough? The reaction to the departure of the social media giant's founder was revealing
DID HE JUMP OR WAS HE PUSHED? Behind the scenes there’s plenty of gossip that Dorsey’s departure wasn’t as amiable as it’s been presented. Was it really his decision or was he gently manoeuvred out of the door? Certainly, it is odd that he’s not retaining a place on the board. Thinking of a similar power shift at Amazon, which saw the new boss appointed from within just like at Twitter, Jeff Bezos still has his name firmly on the door. It’s comforting for investors to know the brains behind the operation is still keeping a watchful eye over their replacement. Instead Dorsey is making a clean break and initially investors didn’t seem unhappy to see him
Photo: Ryan Lash / TED
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ig tech and maverick bosses go together like copy and paste or fish and chips. So, what should we read into the fact that when the jungle drums started beating, when it became clear that Jack Dorsey (pictured) was indeed stepping down from his position as Twitter head, the share price went up? Before the announcement his last tweet had professed his love for the platform but in truth there were numerous investors who’d questioned his focus. Like many mavericks Dorsey enjoys variety and for the last six years he’d been effectively operating as a part time CEO after launching small business payment company Square which became a distraction. Square needed nurturing, it was new and shiny, and Twitter trudged on making money, sometimes making waves but not necessarily making the most of its opportunities. Unfavourable comparisons were made, particularly in terms of driving advertising revenue, with rivals like Google and Facebook.
go, in fact news of his departure saw the shares make double-digit gains. But as investors digested the new reality it wasn’t the crowd pleaser it seemed initially and by the end of the day the shares were down. The new Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal might be a safe pair of hands. Having previously been chief technology officer, he might have been behind ‘every critical decision that helped turn this company around’ according to the man he’s replacing. But a maverick? So far, the evidence doesn’t point that way. A LITTLE BIT OF CRAZY The thing about tech companies, the reason so many of the good ones have their founders at their helm is because they’ve started out as crazy ideas. A bright spark that took a little bit of crazy to make them work. Can you imagine Tesla without Elon Musk, Facebook without Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon without Bezos? The latter comparison is an interesting one because Amazon does now have a new man at the top. But in Andy Jassy Amazon investors trust, and, on the day he finally took over, the share price did a happy little dance. 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
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DANNI HEWSON
AJ Bell Financial Analyst
Jassy might have been plucked from within but he has maverick credentials in spades. He founded Amazon Web Services, the bit of Amazon that is now the company’s profit engine and is widely expected to be its driving force over the next decade. And even if Bezos is more focused on blasting through physical cloud layers than the tech version these days, he is still very much part of the brand. It might be better for Agrawal that Dorsey isn’t taking the same approach. Particularly as he’s given up the CEO reins before only to slide right back in. Agrawal has already been flexing his muscles, announcing the platform will both remove images of private individuals shared without their consent and the removal of almost 3,500 ‘state backed information operations’. Small but important steps, a show of strength and perhaps a taste of greater governance that critics have been crying out for. THE RISK OF IRRELEVANCE But neither of those things were enough to placate investors who’d been hoping for a dynamic new broom. There will be some thinking back to the 14 30
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years of irrelevance for Microsoft between its two visionaries – founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella – and wondering if the same fate will befall Twitter. Agrawal barely has his feet under the table so it’s incredibly unfair to write him off before he’s even had chance to change the paint colours in that corner office, but investors will want at least a few quick, colourful wins. Twitter might have got over the permanent ban of arguably it’s most prolific tweeter. Donald Trump’s absence from the platform didn’t hinder its fourth quarter earnings update and its stock reached record highs in the month that followed. But since then, there has been a dearth of excitement. The papers have been full of suggestions of how the new CEO can rejuvenate the platform. Introduce an edit button, clamp down on bots, create more lucrative subscription models, for example. But it’s policing hate speech and delivering greater transparency over the use of algorithms that will undoubtedly be right at the top of Agrawal’s very long to-do list. And there are no quick or easy wins there.
MON£Y & MARKET$ LISTEN TO OUR WEEKLY PODCAST Recent episodes include: Black Friday turns red as markets get spooked by Omicron Britcoin, cheapest cost of borrowing, US renewable energy and Einstein’s record auction Diageo’s drinks dominance, Shell shifts to UK shores, eco banking options, and Buy Now Pay Later aims to get clean
Listen on Shares’ website here You can download and subscribe to ‘AJ Bell Money & Markets’ by visiting the Apple iTunes Podcast Store, Amazon Music, Google Podcast or Spotify and searching for ‘AJ Bell’. The podcast is also available on Podbean.
Fundsmith success: Smithson doubles in value in three years The trust has been a strong performer and is sticking to a tried and tested strategy
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nvestors who backed Fundsmith’s investment trust Smithson (SSON) at launch October 2018 have now doubled their money. Their faith in the Fundsmith investment process has been vindicated, and proof they were right to put their money with Smithson despite it being run by a fund manager (Simon Barnard) who, at the time of launch, was unknown to the retail market.
Terry Smith defined the Fundsmith investment process in 2010 with the launch of the Fundsmith Equity Fund (B41YBW7), which has since gone on to deliver superior returns. The ‘buy good companies, don’t overpay, do nothing’ strategy worked for large caps, so Smith thought it could be replicated in the mid and small-cap space, being the premise of Smithson. Having debuted at £10 three
years ago, Smithson hit the £20 share price level on 10 November 2021. Impressively this performance has been delivered against the backdrop of the pandemic and a year just gone which has seen a rotation out of the quality names which Smithson targets and into value. It also proved that Terry Smith didn’t need to be behind the driving wheel to make the trust a success.
SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST
We seek out entrepreneurial companies changing the world in every way. We call it investing in progress.
Talking to Shares, manager Simon Barnard says: ‘We’re long-term investors with at least a 10-year time horizon. Even if there’s market rotation over two or three years – it might feel like a long time at the time, but it wouldn’t change our approach. ‘Ironically even this year when many commentators have been talking about a shift towards value we are only slightly behind the benchmark and haven’t fared badly in this environment.’
ADD SMITHSON CHART
LAYING THE FOUNDATIONS The foundations for Smithson’s success were laid early on. Before the trust was launched the team behind it spent a year analysing the universe of stocks – getting rid of the sectors which they didn’t like, including airlines, automotive firms, commodities-
Look at our portfolio and you will discover that we seek out companies revolutionising everything from how we all shop, eat and travel to how we bank and look after our health. By using our skills as actual investors in this way, we believe we can deliver exceptional growth for your portfolio. Join us and invest in progress. Over the last five years the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has delivered a total return of 350.0% compared to 83.1% for the index*. And Scottish Mortgage is low-cost with an ongoing charges figure of just 0.34%**. Standardised past performance to 30 September*
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
SCOTTISH MORTGAGE
30.3%
29.0%
-6.4%
97.8%
44.5%
FTSE ALL-WORLD INDEX
15.5%
13.4%
7.8%
5.7%
22.7%
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Please remember that changing stock market conditions and currency exchange rates will affect the value of the investment in the fund and any income from it. Investors may not get back the amount invested. Find out more by watching our film at scottishmortgageit.com A Key Information Document is available. Call 0800 917 2112.
Actual Investors
*Source: Morningstar, share price, total return in sterling as at 30.09.21. Index data source: FTSE Russell, full information can be found at bailliegifford.com/en/uk/legal. **Ongoing charges as at 31.03.21 calculated in accordance with the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) recommendations. Details of other costs can be found in the Key Information Document. Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Issued and approved by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited, whose registered address is at Calton Square, 1 Greenside Row, Edinburgh, EH1 3AN, United Kingdom. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is the authorised Alternative Investment Fund Manager and Company Secretary of the Trust. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The investment trusts managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited are listed UK companies and are not authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
a long way off from having a problem in terms of capacity,’ he adds.
related businesses, real estate and regulated industries such as utilities. That left 150 names which it went through with a fine-tooth comb, looking for high and sustainable returns on invested capital and margins, good free cash flow generation and strong free cash flow growth as well as evidence these metrics could be maintained over the next decade. This distillation process resulted in a concentrated portfolio. At present there are 31 holdings, and the emphasis is on capital gains rather than dividends. It invests in smaller-sized companies rather than outright small caps. The median market cap of Smithson’s holdings is a still chunky £9.9 billion. The ongoing charge is 1%. Barnard says the increased scale of the trust, now valued by the market at £3.3 billion, isn’t creating any problems just yet. If Smithson wanted to put 3% of its portfolio into a £2 billion 34
| SHARES | 25 November 2021
company, it would need to buy a £99 million stake. That is nearly 5% of the company, which is a meaningful purchase, and equally this could be a challenge to offload in one go. ‘We have been able to buy new positions and sell out of others which would be the main mark of any issues arising,’ insists Barnard. ‘Because of our closedended structure we’ll never be forced to sell anything. We’re
Rightmove features in Smithson’s portfolio
PORTFOLIO TURNOVER The ‘do nothing’ part of the strategy was initially fully reflected in the turnover in Smithson’s portfolio – as Barnard notes in 2019 it was 6% which ‘is very similar to Fundsmith Equity’. In 2020 it was more like 20% as the trust reacted to a volatile market. ‘We were very active around the March/April bottom in the market,’ says Barnard. ‘There was a lot which looked good value while some medical device names had doubled, so we trimmed our holdings there and put it into other names.’ Longer term the expected turnover rate is in the mid-single digits. Barnard dismisses the idea this is necessarily more difficult with smaller businesses despite their greater volatility. Barnard says this long-term perspective means it hasn’t pursued a policy of buying lockdown winners. However, there are a few investee
companies which have benefited during the pandemic and which he also believes have significant long-term potential. For example, this includes Danish firm Ambu which makes single-use endoscopes. Barnard says: ‘Pretty much all existing endoscopes are reusable and obviously in today’s world with increased focus on the risk of infections Ambu had very strong growth last year and is penetrating so many different types of procedures.’ The other name he highlights is Wingstop which sells chicken wings. It was well-positioned for lockdown having launched a delivery service three years ago. Barnard likes the fact it is a franchise business and can grow without using lots of capital and it is very profitable for individual franchisees – incentivising them to take on new franchises and helping to facilitate growth for the overall business. SELLING STRATEGY The ‘Do nothing’ part of the Fundsmith/Smithson investment strategy obviously has its limits
and Barnard highlights several reasons why the trust might sell a stock. These include something fundamental changing in the investment case or valuation, though so far Smithson has only trimmed positions on the latter grounds rather than exiting completely. And as Barnard concedes, sometimes they just get things wrong. He cites auto dealer software provider CDK Global which was in the portfolio at the trust’s launch. ‘We sold early on as when we got to know it better, we realised it wasn’t what we thought it was at the outset,’ Barnard says. As the table shows, of its main rival trusts only one has outperformed Smithson since its inception – Herald (HRI) – while its ongoing charges figure sits somewhere in the middle. Smithson is also one of two trusts currently trading at a premium. This no doubt reflects the pull of Fundsmith’s lofty reputation. In comparison, Herald has benefited from its focus on technology companies and is
a significantly more diversified portfolio than Smithson, with 355 holdings. Overall, Smithson has got off to a good start in its first three years, with decent market outperformance. Since inception the share price has risen by 93.6% to 30 November 2021, versus 45.7% from the MSCI World SMID index. Shares views Smithson as an ideal component of a diversified portfolio, providing exposure to mid-cap stocks via a successful and proven investment strategy. You’re paying for active management and so far, the fund manager has deserved their fees as they’ve added significant value. DISCLAIMER: Shares’ Editor Daniel Coatsworth has a personal investment in both Fundsmith Equity Fund and Smithson referenced in this article By Tom Sieber Deputy Editor
25 November 2021 | SHARES |
35
SIPPs | ISAs | Funds | Shares
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The most consistent top performing Asian funds Discover the collectives with eyes on the East which have delivered year after year
C
onsistency in performance is a very useful quality for a fund or investment trust to have, as this translates into the kind of steady returns which can really boost investors’ wealth. Shares has screened the funds and trusts universe to identify Asian-focused collectives which have been top quartile performers across three, five and 10 years. Quartile rankings are used to compare returns of funds in the same category. If a given fund category has 100 funds, each quartile will be made up of 25 funds. And the 25 funds with the highest returns will belong to the top or first quartile, while the next best 25 funds will inhabit the second quartile and so on. Baillie Gifford Pacific (0606323) has the standout performance among the openended funds. Fellow Baillie Gifford product Pacific Horizon Investment Trust (PHI), which pursues the same strategy, is the dominant name in the trusts space. Both are managed by Roderick Snell with a focus on growth companies and stock picking to deliver returns. The active share of the trust’s portfolio, or in other words how much it deviates from the benchmark, was 93% as at the end of October 2021. [TS] 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
37
How Lindsell Train ran out of steam Two star fund managers have come unstuck in 2021, can they regain their mojo in 2022?
I
t’s been a tough year for investors in Lindsell Train funds. What’s made significant underperformance this year particularly painful is that investors simply aren’t used to it, given the exceptional track record of the two lead managers, Nick Train and Michael Lindsell. The previous gains made by the pair for investors should cushion the blow of a dismal year, but it’s nonetheless unsettling when high flying fund managers come unstuck, and inevitably leads to questions about whether they’ve lost their mojo. LONG-TERM BUY AND HOLDERS The duo have a very long term buy and hold approach, following in the footsteps of Warren Buffett, who famously said his favourite period for holding a stock was forever. Lindsell Train is known for encouraging analysts to do antiquated things like ‘reading books’ and ‘thinking’, rather than simply mashing numbers through a spreadsheet. It even has a library in its office to facilitate such curiously old-fashioned methods. This approach, combined with a steadfast focus on businesses with wide economic moats (another Buffettism), has driven
38
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
exceptional returns for investors. Until 2021 came along. The two big flagship funds run by Lindsell Train have had a bleak year. Over the last 12 months, Lindsell Train UK Equity (B18B9X7) fund has returned 10%, compared to 17% from the FTSE All Share. Lindsell Train Global Equity (B18B9X7) has had an annus horribilis though, with the fund returning 3% for investors, while the global stock market has increased in value by 24%. This now leaves the fund slightly behind its benchmark index over five years, though it’s still comfortably ahead over the last decade.
WHAT’S BEHIND THE UNDERPERFORMANCE? There are a few trends which explain this weak recent performance. Certain areas of the market where Lindsell Train has no or low exposure have done well in the last 12 months, most notably energy and tech stocks. Lindsell Train does have a bit of exposure to tech, but one of its three picks in the area, Paypal, has not been having a good time of it recently. Generally speaking, the stocks Lindsell Train likes to buy are masters of their own destiny. When economic growth is very favourable, as it has been this year, companies like these that can grow in many conditions
fall out of favour, because corporate prosperity is plentiful. Investors are willing to shed their reliable all-weather waterproof in a heatwave. The Lindsell Train approach naturally leads to a portfolio which is skewed towards consumer goods giants like Unilever (ULVR), PepsiCo, and Mondelez. Supply chain bottlenecks and cost inflation are leading these companies to raise prices, and there are some doubts over whether consumers will stomach higher bills, or switch to cheaper unbranded substitutes. Mondelez, the maker of Oreo and Ritz Crackers, reckons it will have to raise prices in the US by as much as 7% next year. For many consumers already facing higher energy bills, that will really take the biscuit. Lindsell Train funds are also heavily invested in what have been called ‘bond proxies’. These are companies that are reliable growth compounders, including consumer goods giants, which have found favour with traditional bond investors, because exceptionally low yields have driven them to look
for alternative homes for their money. There is some concern in the market that potential interest rates rises could prove a headwind for these stocks, as that may tempt some investors back into their natural habitat of bonds. HIGHLY CONCENTRATED FUNDS Lindsell Train also run very highly concentrated portfolios, typically only holding 25 to 30 stocks. This helps amplify outperformance when things are going well, and works in the opposite direction when the chips are down. It’s a high octane approach to investment management and not for the faint-hearted, because it means big positions in a small number of companies. Just a few turning sour can therefore have a big effect on the portfolio as a whole. Investors need to be comfortable with this high conviction approach, which can mean big deviations in performance compared to the benchmark index. The big question facing investors is should they stay or should they go? The bear case is that Lindsell Train’s investment style has had its day in the sun,
and that rising interest rates will mean less demand for the reliable compounding stocks they favour. This assessment seems premature after such a short, admittedly painful, period of underperformance. Nor should it carry too much weight in a truly balanced portfolio that encompasses a range of fund manager styles. WHAT NEXT? Lindsell Train has a very particular investment philosophy which focuses on companies with robust brands, balance sheets and earnings streams, and this style can be expected to move out of step with the wider market, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. The managers have earned plenty of credit in the bank, which will likely mean most investors stay on board with Lindsell Train for now. As with any active manager though, it pays to make sure you don’t have too much of your portfolio riding on it. By Laith Khalaf AJ Bell Head of Investment Analysis
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
39
WEBINAR
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Midatech Pharma (MTPH) Stephen Stamp, CEO & CFO Midatech Pharma is a drug delivery technology company focused on improving the bio-delivery and bio-distribution of medicines. Driven by a team of scientists, engineers, and pharmaceutical development specialists, and led by an experienced management team, Midatech is progressing a pipeline of differentiated therapeutics in areas of high unmet need for the benefit of patients.
Wentworth Resources (WEN) Katherine Roe, CEO Wentworth Resources is an upstream oil and natural gas company. It is actively involved oil and gas exploration, development, and production operations. The company operating segments are Tanzania Operations, and Corporate.
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Can I carry forward old allowances and make a big pension payment? A reader wants to make a large contribution to their retirement savings and needs to understand the rules I recently sold my company shares and understand I can pay a larger pension contribution from the proceeds using the last three years’ annual allowances. How does this work in practice? Nigel Tom Selby, AJ Bell Head of Retirement Policy says:
The amount you can save tax-efficiently in a pension each year is capped at 100% of your earnings. So, for example, someone earning £30,000 could save up to £30,000 a year in a pension and receive tax relief on that amount. The maximum anyone can save in a pension each year without using ‘carry forward’ is £40,000. This includes any employer contributions plus tax relief. If you have no UK earnings you can still save up to £3,600 a year (including tax relief) in a pension. If you have accessed taxable income flexibly from your retirement pot, you will trigger the ‘money purchase annual allowance’ or MPAA. This will reduce your maximum annual allowance from £40,000 a year to just £4,000. Flexibly accessing your
pension includes taking an income through drawdown or taking an ad-hoc lump sum – although if you just take you tax-free cash you won’t trigger the MPAA. If you are a very high earner you might be affected by the annual allowance taper, reducing your annual allowance by £1 for every £2 of adjusted income you earn above £240,000, to a minimum of £4,000 for those with adjusted income above £312,000. It is possible to carry forward up to three years’ unused annual allowances into the current tax year. In order to use carry forward you must have used all your annual allowance in the current tax year and been a member of a pension scheme in the years you wish to carry forward (although you needn’t have made any contributions in those years). The amount you can carry forward is also controlled by your UK earnings in the current tax year. So, for example, someone with £60,000 of earnings who had already contributed £40,000 into their pension in the current tax year could carry forward a maximum of £20,000 of unused annual allowance from previous
tax years. If you have triggered the MPAA you are barred from using carry forward at all. If you were affected by the annual allowance taper in any of the three years from which you want to carry forward allowances, you will only be able to carry forward up to the tapered amount. For example, if in the previous tax year you didn’t pay into a pension and the taper reduced your available annual allowance to £10,000, this is the maximum you would be able to carry forward from that year to the current tax year.
DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION ON RETIREMENT ISSUES? Send an email to asktom@sharesmagazine.co.uk with the words ‘Retirement question’ in the subject line. We’ll do our best to respond in a future edition of Shares. Please note, we only provide information and we do not provide financial advice. If you’re unsure please consult a suitably qualified financial adviser. We cannot comment on individual investment portfolios.
09 December 2021 | SHARES |
41
What happens to your personal pension when you die? The options available and how to make sure your loved ones benefit
T
he rules on how you can pass on your defined contribution pension scheme funds when you die changed in April 2015. They are now very generous and there is lots of flexibility in terms of both who can receive your unused pension fund, and how they can take the money. WHO CAN I LEAVE MY PENSION TO? In simple terms you can leave your pension to whoever you like. Mostly commonly this will be your spouse, partner, or child, but could also include wider family members and even close friends. You can also leave funds to a trust or to a charity. Whoever receives your funds are called your beneficiaries. You don’t have to leave your pension all to one person, you can split it between beneficiaries if appropriate, for example between your children. HOW CAN MY BENEFICIARIES TAKE THE BENEFITS? Your unused pension fund can be paid out as a lump sum or used to provide an income. If your pension fund goes to an entity rather than a person, e.g. a trust or a
42
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
charity, then they can only receive the benefits as a one-off lump sum payment. For individual beneficiaries to have the income option, they need to be either what is called a ‘dependant’ or a ‘nominee’. Dependants and nominees have the choice of either taking the death benefits as a lump sum payment, using the funds to purchase an annuity, or leaving them invested within a pension as flexi-access drawdown, from which they can take income as and when they need it. The dependant or nominee will choose how they take the funds, you cannot control this. WHO ARE MY DEPENDANTS? Your spouse or civil partner will always be classed as a dependant, as well as someone in a financial relationship of mutual dependence. This could include a co-habiting partner If you have a child under the age of 23, they will also be classed as a dependant, as well as older children if they are physically or mentally impaired. If a child inherits your pension, then their parent or legal guardian will manage it until they turn 18. Withdrawals can be made for the benefit of the child, for example to pay school fees.
WHO ARE MY NOMINEES? A nominee is any individual you nominate who is not a dependant. Most commonly this would be an adult child or grandchild, but a nominee does not have to be a family member. If you were to die without making any nominations and you had no dependants at the time of your death, then the pension scheme administrator can make a nomination as appropriate. HOW DO I NOMINATE MY BENEFICIARIES? When you join a new pension scheme you should have been asked who you want to receive your benefits on your death. You can also change your nomination at any time. This is especially important if your circumstances change, for example if you get married or divorced, but it is good practice to review your nominations on a regular basis. Some platforms allow you to update your nominations online. Other providers may have a form to update nominations, otherwise you can write to them to give your instructions. Just make sure you get an acknowledgement so you know your instructions have been received. HOW ARE DEATH BENEFITS TAXED? If you die before your 75th birthday then your beneficiaries can usually receive the death benefits tax free. There are some exceptions – see the sections below regarding inheritance tax and the lifetime allowance. For the benefits to be free of income tax the scheme administrator must distribute the funds within two years of when they were informed of your death. For lump sum payments this means the payment must have been made within this two-year window. If a dependant or nominee has elected to take the death benefits as flexi-access drawdown or as
A defined contribution pension is also known as a personal pension or a SIPP (self-invested personal pension) an annuity then it means the funds need to have been moved into a drawdown arrangement in their own name, or the annuity purchased within the two-year window. Once funds are in the drawdown arrangement there is no time limit as to when they can take benefits – they can leave the funds invested to grow for as long as they like and just take income as and when they need it. If you are 75 or older when you die, or if you die younger but your death benefits are not distributed within the two-year window, then the death benefits will be subject to income tax. If your beneficiaries choose to take a lump sum, then this will be added to their income for the year and tax charged at the appropriate rate. If they use the funds for flexi-access drawdown, when they come to take income it will be subject to income tax under PAYE. Any lump sum payments made to an entity rather than an individual will be subject to the special lump sum death benefits tax charge of 45%. Most commonly this will apply when payments are made to trusts. There are exceptions for payments to charities if certain conditions are met. WILL THERE BE INHERITANCE TAX TO PAY? If you nominate beneficiaries and that nomination is binding on the scheme administrator (i.e. they must follow your instructions) then your pension will be included in your estate and inheritance tax may apply. For this reason, most personal pensions scheme rules do not allow binding nominations. This means that your death benefits are not usually included in your estate so inheritance tax will not apply. In most cases the scheme administrator will follow your wishes – they would need to have good reason not to – but they must have the ability to 09 December 2021 | SHARES |
43
exercise discretion. Inheritance tax may apply even where the scheme administrator has discretion if you increase contributions to your pension in the period before your death in the knowledge of ill-health, or if you transfer between pensions in the two years prior to death when you are in ill-health. ARE DEATH BENEFITS TESTED AGAINST THE LIFETIME ALLOWANCE? If you are over 75 or have already designated all your funds into drawdown in your lifetime, they are not tested again when you die. However, if you have funds you have not accessed and you die before 75 then these funds are tested against your remaining lifetime allowance on death. If you have any lifetime allowance protection, then this can be used to reduce or eliminate any lifetime allowance charge that may be applicable. Any lifetime allowance charge that arises will be payable by your beneficiaries, and they can use the inherited funds to pay it. It is worth noting that any funds they inherit are not tested against their own lifetime allowance. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MY BENEFICIARY DIES? If your beneficiary chooses flexiaccess drawdown and there are funds left when they die, those funds can be passed on again. However, it will be up to your beneficiary to nominate who they want the funds to go to on their death, this is not something you can determine. WHAT ABOUT DEFINED BENEFIT OR FINAL SALARY PENSION SCHEMES? Defined benefit pensions usually only allow dependants to receive a pension after the member dies. Some schemes will pay out a lump sum if you die before accessing your pension. If you have a defined benefit pension you should check with the scheme what payments can be made. 44
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
CAN I LEAVE MY PENSION TO CHARITY? The short answer is yes, however if you have dependants you should make sure they are looked after first. A ‘Charity Lump Sum Death Benefit’ can only be paid where you have no dependants and you have nominated your chosen charity before you die. If the payment qualifies then there is no tax to pay on the lump sum when it goes to the charity – even if you die after the age of 75. If you die before age 75 then the lump sum is not tested against your lifetime allowance. If you do have dependants, it doesn’t mean that you can’t leave your pension to charity, it just means it won’t qualify for the tax exemptions. In practice the scheme administrator would want to make sure there was adequate provision for any dependants before they would exclude them from receiving your pension. In most circumstances it may be more practical to consider gifts to charity where you have no dependants.
By Lisa Webster, Senior Technical Consultant, AJ Bell
14 2021 DEC
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INDEX Main Market Anglo American
AIM 9
Eckoh
25
AO World
16
Gamma
23
Ashtead
16
Big Yellow
16
Impax Asset Management
22
Inspecs
25
RWS Supreme
BP British Land BT
7 16 8
TB Amati UK Smaller Companies
25
Overseas shares
6
Electrocomponents
23
Amazon
29
FirstGroup
16
Ambu
35
Future
22
CDK Global
35
10
China Life Insurance
6
Grainger
16
Didi
6
Great Portland Estates
16
Discovery
8
Halfords
24
JD.Com
6
Hammerson
16
Moderna
7
HSBC
16
Mondelez
38
PepsiCo
38
Land Securities Lloyds
Telecom Italia
8
29
Wingstop
35
Investment Trusts
16 7
KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK Full-year results: 10 Dec: Nexus Infrastructure. 14 Dec: Chemring, Driver, Hollywood Bowl, RWS. 15 Dec: Avon Protection, Character Group, Jersey Electricity, Pressure Technologies. 16 Dec: IntegraFin. Half-year results: 10 Dec: SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust. 14 Dec: Goodwin, Purplebricks, Yourgene Health. 15 Dec: Currys, In The Style. Trading updates: 15 Dec: Condor Gold, 16 Dec: ITM Power. WHO WE ARE
3i
16
BlackRock Throgmorton
21
Molten Ventures
16
21
FUNDS AND INVESTMENT TRUSTS EDITOR:
National Express
16
Henderson Smaller Companies
16
35
James Crux @SharesMagJames
NatWest
Herald Investment Trust
Oxford Instruments
23
Tate & Lyle
16
Tharisa
13
Thungela Resources
9
Unilever
38
Vodafone
5
Watches of Switzerland
46
16, 23
| SHARES | 09 December 2021
NEWS EDITOR:
Tom Sieber @SharesMagTom
Steven Frazer @SharesMagSteve
EDUCATION EDITOR
CONTRIBUTORS
Martin Gamble @Chilligg
Danni Hewson Laith Khalaf Russ Mould Tom Selby Laura Suter
Daniel Coatsworth @Dan_Coatsworth
16
7
DEPUTY EDITOR:
EDITOR:
Marks & Spencer
Royal Dutch Shell
11
32
Alibaba
9
Liontrust Global Dividend Fund
Fundsmith Equity Fund
16
Kanabo
Funds
37
14
EasyJet
16
12
24
3M
IP Group
Worldwide Healthcare
Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund
24
16
7
16
37
Liontrust UK Smaller Companies
Diageo
International Consolidated Airlines
UK Commercial Property REIT
Lindsell Train Global Equity Fund
39
27
9
16
Baillie Gifford Pacific Fund
Centrica
GlaxoSmithKline
Tritax Eurobox
International Biotechnology
12
JPMorgan UK Smaller Companies Trust
23
Odyssean Investment Trust
13
Oryx International Growth Fund
21
Pacific Horizon Investment Trust
39
Polar Capital Global Healthcare
12
Smithson
32
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