It has been quite the year for Japan. The country has received a rare visit from the world’s most famous living investor, Warren Buffett, who sees big opportunities in that part of Asia.

Japan has just had its biggest stock market flotation in five years with the listing of Rakuten Bank (5838:TYO), whose shares soared by 40% on the first day.

One of the country’s major stock indices, the Nikkei 225, is up 10% year to date, making it the best performing Asian market and even better than the UK’s FTSE 100 which is up 6% and an 8% gain from the S&P 500 in the US.

That is impressive for a place considered to be ‘stagnant’ by investors. Ignoring the region might be a mistake as there are reasons to be optimistic about Japan.

‘Japan shares have been underperforming every other market for pretty much 30 years, the yen went down last year, so it has been a dreadful place to invest,’ says Simon Edelsten, manager of the Mid Wynd International Trust (MWY). That is quite a surprise from someone with 11% of their portfolio invested in the country.

He says there are now good reasons to be optimistic. ‘Valuations are low. You get a lot of company for your money in terms of assets. You are not just relying on growth and growth valuations which dominate American equity investing. Second, China’s economy is reopening and they buy a lot of stuff from Japan.’

Wage inflation and lingering concerns about supply chains could drive greater spending from various part of the globe on automation which suggests Japan’s world-leading robotics companies could be in demand.

Edelsten also believes Japanese society has reached a point where you can take over businesses. Over the years, company bosses have batted off takeovers in the belief they would not bring any benefits. However, the Japanese political establishment has worked out that you cannot let the economy drift.

There is now pressure on Japanese companies to improve profitability and embrace change if it yields better results. Alongside that shift, companies are being more shareholder-friendly and paying more attention to dividends and share buybacks.

Whereas inflation has been a big problem in parts of the world, it is only just picking up in Japan and has led to one of the first significant wage hikes in a long time. That should trickle down to greater consumer spending and an improved domestic economy.

While higher wage costs put pressure on corporate profit margins, there are hopes that workers might be more productive thanks to higher pay and the long-awaited reopening effect – note that Japan only permitted residents to stop wearing masks as of March 2023. There is also the scope for Japanese companies to pass on extra costs through higher selling prices.

The most surprising thing about Japan in the past decade or so, according to Edelsten, is that the level of earnings growth is exactly the same on a local currency basis as the S&P 500. While US stocks with strong earnings have commanded a higher earnings multiple on the stock market, Japanese stocks with the same earnings growth have got progressively cheaper.

It is rare to have combination of stronger earnings and weaker valuations, suggesting that investors might have the opportunity of lifetime.

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