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With 2023 numbers now baked in, the 2024 outlook will be key to sustainable share price gains

UK housebuilders Persimmon (PSN) and Taylor Wimpey (TW.) have been on quite a run of late with shares in both jumping around 40% over the last two months.



A shift in interest-rate expectations since the middle of November has had a positive effect on mortgage costs, while house prices have perked up after months of decline which has combined to give the downtrodden sector a much-needed boost.

Both firms are due to release trading statements in early January (Persimmon on Wednesday 10 and Taylor Wimpey on Thursday 11) and investors will be keen to see whether the new-build housing market has bottomed out yet.

Seemingly against the odds, Taylor Wimpey has maintained a positive outlook since the summer when it guided for full-year operating profit and house completions to be at the top end of market expectations at around £470 million and 10,500 respectively.

The company also flagged receding input cost inflation and abating pressure on selling prices which should be positive for margins.

Persimmon provided a similarly positive outlook in November after chief executive Dean Finch insisted the firm could deliver 9,500 homes this year against a previous forecast of 9,000.

However, analysts seem less convinced judging by consensus earnings forecasts which have been revised down by around 35% over the last year according to LSEG data.


UK UPDATES

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

4 January: Next

10 January: Greggs, Persimmon, Sainsbury

11 January: Hilton Food Group, Marks & Spencer Group, Taylor Wimpey, Whitbread

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