magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
Is China about to face its Minsky moment as country’s property crisis intensifies?
Thursday 24 Aug 2023Upon finding James Bond crossing his path for a third time in quick succession, in Miami over cards, Kent for golf and then Geneva, Auric Goldfinger finally senses trouble and tells 007, ‘Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it is enemy...
The US economy has kept powering ahead but can it continue?
Thursday 10 Aug 2023Regular readers of this column will know (or even bewail) its status as a bit of a trainspotter, quite literally when it comes to transport stocks. Owners of planes, ships, trucks and trains are right at the front line of the economy, because when things are going well their services are in demand...
Why the US 10-year treasury yield is so important for investors to watch
Thursday 13 Jul 2023With celebrations for the US Independence Day holiday of 4 July just dying down, it feels an appropriate time to revisit the US equity market. The timing fees particularly opportune as the S&P 500 is now in a new bull market, at least if you use the definition of a 20% gain from the last major...
Why real interest rates matter for the performance of shares
Thursday 29 Jun 2023For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the Bank of England’s 13th straight interest rate hike last week (22 June), the nominal base rate of 5% is still some way below the post-1970 average of 6.4%. Even more tellingly, the real rate of interest – adjusting for inflation – is still minus 3.7...
Reasons why the market could be too pessimistic about oil demand
Thursday 15 Jun 2023‘You cannot buck the market’ is taken as axiomatic by many investors and it may be that Saudi Arabia is finding this out the hard way, as it attempts to bend the oil price to its iron will. A fresh production cut from Riyadh, and an extension to the decreases initially agreed in April through 2024...
Copper/gold ratio: what does it mean and what is it telling us?
Thursday 01 Jun 2023This column’s regular readers will know of its faith in ‘Dr Copper’ and the commodity’s status as an economic indicator. If copper prices are firm, the economy is usually doing well and vice-versa. Equally, this column takes a keen interest in gold, in the view it is not so much a hedge against...
Have we reached the peak of the US market’s appeal as a listing venue?
Thursday 18 May 2023One issue which continues to bedevil the UK market is the number of firms who are considering switching their main listing from the London Stock Exchange, usually to New York, and the potential newcomers who are opting to float stateside rather than on this side of the pond. This is leading to much...
Nasdaq rally: is this a brave new dawn or a big bear trap?
Thursday 04 May 2023It was the worst-performing major equity index in 2022 and, so far, it has been the best in 2023. Is the Nasdaq back? It is tempting to think so, especially after the meaty rally in stocks such as Meta Platforms (META:NDQ) and Microsoft (MSFT:NDQ) following their first-quarter results. In addition...
Do gold stocks have the Midas touch right now?
Thursday 20 Apr 2023Any readers who share Warren Buffett’s opinion that gold is an inert, useless lump can turn over the page right now. The Sage of Omaha has long since asserted that an alien invader would dismiss the purportedly precious metal as worthless were they to trip over an ingot upon their arrival from...
Five ways to spot if inflation, deflation or stagflation is coming
Thursday 06 Apr 2023Whatever the outcome of the banking wobble, which for now seems contained to US regional lenders and one badly run Swiss institution, one possibility is that it constrains lending and credit growth and hits the wider economy. Amid the wider loss of trust, senior loan and credit risk officers may...