magazine archive
magazine archive
Russ Mould
What just happened with gilts and why Adam Smith nailed it
Thursday 06 Oct 2022It will be of little or no consolation to investors, but the UK is not the only country whose economic foundations are coming into question. The Bank of England has had to intervene in the gilt market, ostensibly to support the value of defined benefit pensions and more generally to bring order to...
The ‘Rule of 20’ is back and it tells us a lot about current markets
Thursday 22 Sep 2022The old saying that buying higher-risk investments guarantees higher returns is one of investing’s biggest fallacies. If buying higher-risk assets ensured higher returns all the time, then they would not be high-risk, would they, because of the certain premium returns? The best way to get the best...
Bond and currency markets will be first test for new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss
Thursday 08 Sep 2022The stock market may well have its say on Liz Truss’ first new policy initiatives as prime minister, but the response of the government bond – or gilt – market and the pound may be more telling, at least in the very short term. Financial markets express their faith – or lack of it – in a country...
Five key tests of the markets’ tone for investors to monitor
Thursday 25 Aug 2022The summertime blues are nowhere to be seen. Share and bond prices are advancing, and oil and commodity prices are ebbing to help take the edge off inflationary concerns and permit markets to convince themselves that central banks are planning a policy pivot, in the form of interest rate cuts,...
Why commodities hold the key to the FTSE 100
Thursday 11 Aug 2022The UK’s first-half results reporting season is drawing to a close, and investors may be feeling they can breathe a sigh of relief. As in the US more firms are beating or meeting expectations and disappointments look relatively few and far between. Smith & Nephew ( SN. ) and Rolls-Royce ( RR...
What is top of the agenda in the latest US earnings season?
Thursday 28 Jul 2022The US second-quarter earnings season is about to reach full throttle. According to research from S&P Global’s Howard Silverblatt, at the time of wrting 31 members of the S&P 500 index have already reported earnings. Of those, 22 beat earnings expectations, while just nine missed and 21 did...
What a new mid-term prime minister means for UK stocks
Thursday 14 Jul 2022In the end Boris Johnson might – just – outlast Theresa May as prime minister, but financial markets are already wondering who will come next and what policies they will bring with them. So far, the UK’s leading stock market indices and sterling are taking the latest ructions in Westminster in...
The key things that could tell you if a US recession is coming
Thursday 30 Jun 2022US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell in his testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee in Washington declared a risk that America is heading into a recession. This represents refreshing honesty, especially for the head of an organisation with an unbroken record of failing to accurately predict any...
US earnings estimates are being slashed as more bad news piles up
Thursday 16 Jun 2022The Federal Reserve, like so many other Western central banks, remains on the horns of a dilemma. The US central bank can either let inflation run unchecked and run the risk that damages the economy as consumers’ pockets and corporations’ margins feel the pinch, or it can raise interest rates to...
Why oil shares seem unshaken by the windfall tax
Wednesday 01 Jun 2022Bruce Kovner may not be the best-known hedge fund manager in the world but, as the founder of Caxton Associates, he is one of the most successful. He gives little away in public, but it is worth tracking down his few pronouncements and one of this column’s favourites is his comment, ‘What I am...