When supermarket giant Tesco (TSCO) posted its first quarter trading update, chief executive Ken Murphy made a reference to ‘changing customer behaviour as a result of the inflationary environment’.

His comment reverberated through the market, unsettling investors who had come to rely on the grocery sector as dull but dependable – after all, whatever else is happening in the world, we all must eat.

Murphy was essentially describing how the sharp rise in inflation is having a profound effect on how and where we spend our money.

SMALLER BASKETS

Two things have become apparent since last summer according to the monthly ‘till roll’ data provided by consultancy Kantar Worldpanel.

The first is that the volume of items we’re buying at the supermarket has been falling as prices have been rising.

While the underlying strength of sales has been hard to pin down due to the pandemic – which drove a huge spike in consumption in 2020 and a subsequent fall in 2021 on a comparable basis – the data from Kantar has shown a steady fall in the number of items in the typical family shopping basket.

Since grocery inflation turned positive in the 12 weeks to early September 2021, sales by volume have steadily fallen whereby in the latest period to mid-June they were down over 10%.

They were flat in the same period last year, so we aren’t comparing a weak period with a particularly strong period; we are seeing a fundamental change in shoppers’ behaviour.

VALUE PROPOSITION

The second obvious change in spending, which pre-dates the pandemic but has accelerated sharply since the economy reopened, is the rise in popularity of the discount retailers Aldi and Lidl.

Frustratingly for investors, you cannot buy shares in these companies as they are privately-owned businesses. 

What makes Aldi and Lidl’s success noteworthy is the fact they saw very little benefit whatsoever from the channel shift to online during lockdown because they didn’t offer the type of delivery and click and collect services enjoyed by the likes of Tesco, Asda and Morrisons.

Aldi launched click and collect on a very limited basis in late 2020 and it temporarily offered small basket grocery orders via Deliveroo during the pandemic, but the latter was stopped in early 2022. Lidl remains an in-store proposition only.

From being something of a curiosity to most people 10 years ago, the German duo have steadily raised their joint share of the UK grocery market from a little over 11% five years ago to nearly 16% today.

Sainsbury’s (SBRY) has a 14.9% market share, Asda is at 13.7% and Morrisons at 9.6%.

With a 27.3% market share, Tesco may still take nearly one pound in three at the tills, but Aldi and Lidl between them are taking another pound in every six that we spend on groceries.

TRADING DOWN

Referring to the 8.3% year-on-year increase in grocery prices in the month to mid-June, which marked the highest level since April 2009, Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said inflation ‘makes for difficult reading and shoppers will be watching budgets closely as the cost-of-living crisis takes its toll’.

According to Kantar’s own research, the average annual grocery bill is expected to rise by £380 this year, over £100 more than its previous estimate in April, demonstrating just how steep recent price rises have been.

As a result, shoppers are taking steps to manage rising prices, says McKevitt.

‘Shoppers have swapped branded items, which have declined by 1%, for own-label products,’ he adds. ‘Sales of these lines, which are often cheaper, have risen by 2.9%, boosted by Aldi and Lidl’s strong performances, both of whom have extensive own-label repertoires.

‘We can also see consumers turning to value ranges, such as Asda Smart Price, Co-op Honest Value and Sainsbury’s Imperfectly Tasty, to save money and together all value own-label lines grew by 12%.’

There is a certain irony in the surge in popularity of the discounters. Although they would never admit it, the fact their prices are so low to start with means they can raise them by more than the mainstream supermarkets and relatively speaking still appear to offer good value.

That value for money image, reinforced by clever marketing comparing the price of a trolley full of items with the same items at Tesco or Sainsbury’s, means Aldi and Lidl continue to attract shoppers looking to make their money go further.

FACING THE CHALLENGE

A survey in March by environmental campaign group Hubbub showed a quarter of shoppers were buying more own-brand products and nearly a fifth were buying more tinned and frozen goods to avoid having to shop so often.

According to Tesco’s Murphy, the biggest shift to own-brand sales has been in staples such as pasta, bread and baked beans which have seen some of the biggest price increases.

Not only do the supermarkets need to work out how to beat the discounters, but big branded food, drink and household goods companies need to think about how they are going to keep customers buying their products.

Tesco has the advantage of its Clubcard, which rewards loyal customers with special discounts, so it can push greater volumes through its stores and online.

Retail Gazette cites analyst Bryan Roberts as saying Tesco’s Clubcard is ‘the best loyalty programme in the world right now’.

Another shift in shopping behaviour is customers setting themselves strict budgets to make sure they only buy the essentials.

Asda chairman Stuart Rose says shoppers are worried about spending. ‘They say £30 is one limit and if they get to more than £30 that’s it; it’s the same with petrol.’

Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s, says the chain has noticed an increase in sales of frozen goods, which are cheaper and last longer than fresh produce, as shoppers look to make their money go further.

‘People are looking at making sure they don’t incur any waste and don’t buy products they may not use,’ explained Roberts.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Food and household goods firms are facing sharp increases in their own costs and are planning – or at least hoping – to raise prices themselves in the second half of this year.

Research by investment bank Berenberg showed over half the packaged food and consumer goods companies under its coverage had seen an increase in input prices since March.

The most notable price rises in foodstuffs this year have been in palm oil, barley, wheat, whey powder, corn, soybeans, sugar and skimmed milk powder, according to the bank’s research.

It also found manufacturers’ branded products tended to sell at an average price premium of 160% to supermarket own-brand products on an equivalent unit basis.

In certain categories, brand loyalty is relatively high and the risk of consumers trading down is low, which means some firms should be able to pass on moderate price increases and protect their margins.

When it comes to buying infant formula, baby food or pet food, for example, we tend to stick to the brands we know and trust, which is good news for Swiss firm Nestle (NESN:SWX) which makes all three products.

On the other hand, when it comes to buying staples like pasta and rice, or bottled water, snacks, yoghurts, cooking ingredients and even breakfast cereals, we are much less brand-conscious and are happy to trade down.

That is bad news for French firm Danone (BN:EPA), which owns the Evian and Volvic water brands as well as being one of the world’s leading makers of yoghurt. It is much less likely to be able to raise prices if it wants to avoid customers deserting its brands.

In terms of fresh prepared food, Bakkavor (BAKK) makes own-brand products for the supermarkets and has been able to pass through price rises without affecting volumes.

In the ingredients market, Tate & Lyle (TATE) seems to be insulated as it supplies sweeteners and other solutions to food and drink manufacturers, who without its ‘special sauce’ wouldn’t be able to sell their own products.

Unfortunately, for the makers of household goods such as laundry cleaners, dishwasher tablets, household cleaning products or even personal products such as deodorants, research suggests we are quite happy to seek out a value alternative if we need to save money.

That is obviously bad news for firms like Unilever (ULVR) and Reckitt Benckiser (RKT), which have seen sharp rises in the price of commodities such as ethanol used in their personal hygiene and home cleaning products.

In addition to headwinds in personal and home care, Berenberg sees Unilever’s large exposure to ice cream as another area of concern as it is particularly vulnerable to consumers trading down.

Given the firm’s reliance on raising prices to avoid a decline in the value of its sales, Berenberg says to avoid Unilever’s shares for now.

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