Antofagasta cuts copper production outlook but earnings beat forecast

Antofagasta PLC on Thursday delivered mixed news for investors in its first-half results, with earnings ahead of expectations but debt higher, while the miner also lowered its annual copper production outlook after severe weather in Chile disrupted output.

In response, shares in the London-based copper miner focused on Chile were down 6.1% at 3,782.95 pence each in London on Thursday morning, the worst performing stock on the FTSE 100 index, which was down 0.4%.

Mining stocks were a soft feature on London's blue-chip index on Thursday, occupying the top five spots in the fallers list, as metal prices weakened.

Pretax profit increased 72% to USD2.00 billion in the first half of 2026 from USD1.16 billion a year prior.

Revenue was up 18% to USD4.48 billion from USD3.80 billion, in line with company-compiled market consensus.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose 27% to USD2.84 billion from USD2.23 billion, beating consensus of USD2.78 billion.

Earnings per share increased 62% to 85.9 US cents from 52.9 and rose 81% on an underlying basis to 85.9 cents from 47.4, with the underlying result ahead of 77.0 cents consensus.

Antofagasta lifted its dividend by 81% to 30.1 cents per share from 16.6, ahead of the 28.0 cents expected by consensus.

The half-year results benefited from an increase in the average realised copper price of 36% on-year during the period.

"We continue to advance our major projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres towards the completion of commissioning in 2027, which are collectively expected to deliver a 30% increase in copper production and strengthen the long-term resilience of our portfolio," Antofafasta said in a statement.

But the company lowered its full-year copper production outlook, after the Los Pelambres mine in Chile was temporarily shutdown due to exceptional adverse weather conditions.

Antofagasta now expects copper output in the range of 625,000 to 655,000 tonnes for the whole of 2026, its outlook cut from 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes previously. Copper production was 653,700 tonnes in 2025, down from 664,000 in 2024.

Los Pelambres has resumed operations, but inspections have identified the need for repairs to certain pipeline platforms and water management systems, the company said.

Copper production was 285,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, principally driven by lower output at Los Pelambres and Centinela, also in Chile.

Capital expenditure in the half-year was USD1.67 billion versus USD1.62 billion, and full-year guidance was left unchanged at USD3.4 billion.

Cash flow from operations increased to USD2.77 billion from USD1.81 billion a year ago.

Net debt at the end of the period was USD3.97 billion, rising from USD2.75 billion at the end of 2025, and higher than USD3.25 billion consensus.

The increase reflected a balance of strong cash flows, capital expenditures, payment of dividends and the recognition of Centinela's new water infrastructure as a new lease, due to this asset commencing operations.

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