Lunchtime market roundup: Stocks up but doubt cast on energy ceasefire

Stocks in Europe were higher on Monday afternoon, as earlier optimism on the back of an initially lower Brent price persisted, despite oil climbing again on doubts about an energy truce involving Russia.

The FTSE 100 index traded up 71.75 points, 0.7%, at 10,623.80. The FTSE 250 was up 60.06 points, 0.3%, at 24,273.84, and the AIM All-Share was down 1.09 points, 0.1%, at 776.44.

The Cboe UK 100 was up 0.7% at 1,054.18, the Cboe UK 250 rose 0.2% at 21,159.25, and the Cboe Small Companies added 0.7% at 18,937.10.

In European equities on Monday, the CAC 40 in Paris was up 0.3%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt climbed 0.7%.

The US observes Columbus Day on Monday. The Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association in the US has recommended a Treasury market closure on Monday as a result. Equities will trade as normal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are called up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite is called down 0.1%.

Sterling was largely flat at USD1.3235 on Monday, against USD1.3233 at the time of the London equities close on Friday. Against the euro, the pound climbed to EUR1.1830 from EUR1.1818.

The single currency fetched USD1.1183, down from USD1.1195. Versus the yen, the buck was slightly higher at JPY158.60 from JPY158.36.

Brent rose to USD105.58 a barrel early Monday, from USD104.86 late Friday afternoon. It had fallen as low as USD102.33 on Monday, however.

Russia refused to say on Monday whether an agreement had been reached with Ukraine to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, a day after US President Donald Trump sowed confusion with his unilateral announcement that an "energy ceasefire" had been reached.

"Contacts are continuing. As soon as we have anything to say on this matter, we will be sure to let you know," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Asked separately about Kyiv's call for a 60-day complete ceasefire to enable it to hold elections, Peskov told reporters: "We don't want a ceasefire, we want long-term peace."

French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said he had not noticed "any energy truce on the Russian side".

The earlier oil price fall contributed to a decent start to the week for European equities nonetheless. Banking stocks were among those climbing in London.

HSBC was up 2.1%, while Standard Chartered climbed 1.7%.

"Banks have faced headwinds in recent weeks as investors feared a steady increase in interest rates could make it too expensive for many businesses and consumers to borrow money, thereby curbing growth opportunities for the sector," AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould commented.

"Should energy-related inflationary pressures not be as intense as previously feared, it could lead to the Bank of England avoiding big interest rate hikes over the coming year. Markets are currently pricing in four quarter point hikes by next July."

Recruitment firms were on the decline. Hays shed 7.6%, Robert Walters was down 4.8% and Michael Page fell 4.6%.

Hays said its first quarter went in line with expectations, as the decline in net fees slowed.

However, it noted activity in the permanent recruitment sector is "mixed with sustained strong growth in North America but ongoing fragility in Northern Europe".

GlobalData added 5.1%. Mike Danson, the firm's founder and chief executive, is willing to mull an offer for one of more of the data, analytics, and intelligence firm core divisions, The Times reports late Friday.

In 2023, Inflexion Private Equity Partners LLP bought a 40% stake in the company's healthcare division.

"The market cap is less than £500 million at the moment. If somebody came along and they said, we'll buy one unit for the Inflexion-type valuation, it would be fairly transformative," GlobalData CEO Danson told The Times.

Elsewhere in London, ActiveOps warned financial 2028 revenue and earnings will be significantly below market expectations after the loss of a major contract.

The Reading, England-based provider of decision intelligence software for service operations said it has been notified by a major customer that it does not intend to renew its contract when it falls due next March. This reduces previously anticipated FY28 revenue by around £3.8 million.

"Whilst notification of this non-renewal has only just been received and details are yet to be formally agreed, the board has adopted a prudent approach and removed the associated revenue in full from its FY28 expectations," the firm said in a statement.

As a result, ActiveOps expects FY28 revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to be "significantly" below market expectations reflecting both the potential customer loss and lower new business activity.

Shares plunged 45%.

Stellantis and Renault rose 2.2% and 1.8% in Paris, while Volkswagen was up 0.5% in Frankfurt. The EU will cap imports of hybrid vehicles from China to 350,000 a year, a senior EU official said on Monday, after Brussels and Beijing agreed to the limit in a bid to avert a trade war.

"This will cut by more than half the current exports to the EU, which we estimate are likely to reach up to 800,000 units in 2026," the official said.

The cap will apply from 2027 for a period of four years, and will rise by six per cent annually from the second year onward.

Meanwhile, Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD is considering France for one of two new factories in Europe, which has charged tariffs on Chinese EV imports since 2024 to try to protect its automakers from low-cost competition.

Gold fell to USD4,177.14 an ounce early Monday, from USD4,189.88 at the time of the London equities close on Friday.

Focus as the week progresses turns to the US. Major banks kick off the third quarter earnings season from Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is a US consumer price inflation reading. Also likely to grab attention, finance ministers and central bankers meet in Bangkok this week for the annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will make an appearance on a panel session this week, analysts at UBS noted.

"We expect a hotter headline but cooler core CPI in September. This, plus Warsh's comments, could shape expectations for the FOMC's October meeting decision," UBS analysts said.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 80% chance the US central bank leaves rates unmoved later this month. The odds of a hike in December currently stand at 86%.

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