World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% this year

Commodity prices are set to rise 23% this year as global shocks mount, World Bank reported on Wednesday in its latest commodity markets outlook.

The conflict in the Middle East has drawn down oil inventories and is set to push energy prices to a four-year high, the report noted.

The conflict in the Persian Gulf started late in February when the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate by hitting US allies in the region. Tensions have seen Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia trade strikes.

With oil stocks depleted, the world is more exposed to further supply shocks, World Bank reported.

Meanwhile, disrupted grain shipments and El Nino threaten harvests and food affordability, multilateral finance institution said.

Enery prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027, it said, predicting that Brent crude oil is forecast to average USD91 per barrel in 2026, up from USD69 in 2025, then ease to USD79 in 2027.

Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, a cumulative increase of 18%, as conflict disrupts grain shipments, El Nino threatens harvests, and high fuel and fertilizer prices increase agricultural costs, World Bank said.

Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 23% this year before declining by 7% in 2027, it estimated, adding that the forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies.

Energy prices could rise further if the conflict in the Middle East escalates and damage to Russia's oil infrastructure persists, while a very strong El Nino could combine to produce a food crisis that pushes more people into extreme poverty.

Fertiliser prices are set to rise 14% in 2026, after a surge in urea prices early in the year that has since eased, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027, World Bank said.

Metals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25% as prices of aluminium, copper, and tin all hit record highs, the lender said.

Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 40% in 2026 as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty, it said.

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