Daily market update: FTSE 100, Fresnillo, Greggs, BrewDog

Despite an initial sanguine response to the Iran conflict seen on Wall Street on Monday, UK stocks recorded a meaningful drop on Tuesday morning.

Asian markets were weak as concern grows about rising energy prices, and US futures suggest investors across the Atlantic are also starting to become more alarmed about the situation in the Middle East. The suspension of LNG production in Qatar is a particularly sensitive pressure point and has seen gas prices surge globally.

The longer oil and natural gas prices remain elevated, the greater the risk of a meaningful impact on inflation which could mean higher interest rates, an event that’s typically negative for equity markets.

BP and Shell are continuing to benefit from the spike in oil but their heavyweight status in the FTSE 100 isn’t enough to spare the index from pain as miners and financial stocks took a hit.

Quality assurance outfit Intertek picked a bad day to deliver mixed news – with investors ignoring the better-than-expected earnings per share and strong margins to focus on a worse-than-expected organic revenue growth.

Amid all the drama, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement may struggle to get many eyeballs. The plans will likely have been finalised weeks ago although that hasn’t prevented calls for a move on fuel duty to try and mitigate the impact of surging energy prices.

Fresnillo

It’s not often that record profits are greeted with raspberries by the market, but the lukewarm reception afforded Fresnillo’s latest results follows an extremely strong run for the precious metals miner.

One negative is the drop in production in 2025, with volumes expected to come under further pressure in 2026 and costs expected to rise.

Fresnillo has benefited hugely from the substantial increases in gold and silver prices and has seen expenses come down, partly down to lower output but also efficiencies and favourable exchange rate movements.

However, as the first few weeks of 2026 have shown, precious metals markets are fickle beasts and future profit growth will likely require the company to start getting more gold and silver out of the ground.

There may also be a modicum of disappointment at the lack of a special dividend to reflect an extraordinary year for Fresnillo – even if the ordinary dividend has been hiked substantially and the company has gone over and above its policy of paying out 50% of profit.

Fresnillo is swimming in cash like a veritable Scrooge McDuck but wants to keep some of these riches on hand to enable it to invest for future growth and to give it scope to target M&A – an approach which has some logic.

Greggs

Greggs’ profit has deflated like an undercooked cake. The new financial year has also got off to a slow start, leaving investors wondering if the once-loved food seller has gone off the boil.

The company is optimistic that easing inflationary pressures will translate into greater consumer spending and that the public will choose to buy more of its sweet and savoury goods. The spanner in the works is what’s happening in the Middle East and how that has caused energy prices to soar.

There is a real threat of a new inflation spike and that could stop shoppers in their tracks. If it costs more to fill up the car with fuel and to heat the home, cutting back on sausage rolls and donuts to save money is an easy decision to make.

Greggs continues to spruce up its menu but there is a nagging feeling its proposition is becoming stale. Consumer tastes constantly evolve and competition is plentiful. Eating habits are also changing amid greater interest in living a healthier and fitter lifestyle, as well as rapid take-up of weight-loss drugs which curbs people’s appetites. Greggs might expect to keep ticking along, but the big unknown is the pace of future growth.

Greggs’ store rollout plan suggests it expects the nation to be feasting on its goods all day long, but the past few years’ worth of trading and financial figures suggest that’s no longer a given.

BrewDog

BrewDog’s rescue deal emphasises the risks of using crowdfunding schemes to invest in companies and how it is very different to buying shares on the stock market.

Crowdfunding is often dressed up with the promise of perks such as money-off discounts, but what many people miss is the fact they’re potentially locked into the investment for a long time and might be in the dark as to what’s going on.  

In the case of BrewDog, it only had occasional ‘trading days’ where crowdfunding investors could sell their shares outside formal fundraisings. The last time this happened was 31 August 2022, which meant any investor seeing signs of trouble in the business in recent years couldn’t do anything about it unless they found a willing buyer for their stock privately.

In contrast, investing in companies on the stock market means there is a clearer exit path. You can sell to another investor during stock market hours, although there is no guarantee there’s always a willing buyer and/or someone prepared to pay what you want.

Crowdfunding is very different to retail investing on the stock market. With crowdfunding, there is less transparency into a company’s accounts and often little insight into its latest trading strength or weakness. That compares to companies on the stock market who have an obligation to publish accounts every six months, and many will provide trading updates once a quarter.

The success rate of crowdfunding is open to question. Crowdcube, one of the UK’s leading crowdfunding platforms, says only around 5% of businesses using its website to raise money have ‘exited’, meaning they’ve been taken over or floated on a stock market.

BrewDog going into administration before its takeover by Tilray means its ‘Equity for Punks’ crowdfunding investors have lost everything. While the same would apply to a company on the stock market going into administration, investors in quoted companies might have had a chance to cut some of their losses if they bailed out following warning signs, rather than have their hands tied and then lose everything.