There may not be any big geopolitical news to rival last week’s Greenland drama, but internal tensions in the US are helping to keep precious metals prices elevated.
Gold has moved through $5,000 for the first time – showing investors are still seeking out the traditional haven for some insurance against what remains a febrile backdrop.
In less than 18 months bullion has more than doubled in value – buoyed by central bank demand, global turmoil, dollar weakness, and the diminished appeal of other popular defensive assets.
The odds of another US government shutdown look to have increased as Democrats say they will block the federal spending package over the fallout from the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
Japanese shares slumped as the yen increased on speculation authorities in Japan and the US were planning an intervention in the market to curb weakness in the currency. A weaker yen is typically good news for a corporate world and economy heavily reliant on exports.
The FTSE 100 was higher, lifted by its contingent of gold miners. Stocks with US exposure were among those to trade on the back foot.
Regardless of the political backdrop, this week is a crunch one across the Atlantic. Most of the big US tech names are set to report and the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its latest decision on interest rates amid swirling speculation over who will replace current chair Jerome Powell later this year.
Ryanair
Ryanair’s third quarter profits have taken a nosedive after suffering a multi-million-euro competition fine in Italy. Even putting that fine aside, profits have still declined in the period. Ryanair doesn’t seem too worried, with an upgrade to full-year traffic guidance and fare growth.
Running an airline is all about getting as many bums as possible on seats, selling extras, and keeping costs low. Ryanair is good at all these things, and it has form in riding out short bursts of turbulence. The downward trend in the oil price works in its favour and it has locked in a big chunk of its fuel requirements for the next financial year at a much lower price than the current year.
Spire Healthcare
Private health care provider Spire effectively stuck a ‘for sale’ sign on itself with the strategic review it launched in September, and it now appears to have flushed out some interest in the form of private equity names Bridgepoint and Triton.
The clock is ticking ahead of a deadline for either party to announce a firm intention to bid on 21 February – although there is scope for an extension if necessary.
Bridgepoint has links with current Spire CEO Justin Ash, who ran dentistry chain Oasis Dental Care when it was the owner.
A previous takeover deal for Spire back in 2021 – which would have seen Aussie operator Ramsay Health Care take the company over in a £1 billion deal – fell apart despite being recommended by the board, thanks to opposition from major shareholders.
If the speculated £1.5 billion price tag in this latest sale process is right then it looks like that opposition was warranted, although this might be optimistic given where the share price is languishing right now.
The more recent shareholder pressure to launch a review of the business reflects the stock’s miserable performance and investors may welcome the opportunity to check out of Spire should it arise.
Russ Mould: Investment Director
Russ Mould is AJ Bell's Investment Director. He has a Master's degree in Modern History from the University of Oxford and more than 30 years' experience of the capital markets.
He started out at Scottish...
