It has been easy to miss UK companies delivering better than expected earnings and upgrading full-year outlooks in the last month of volatile market trading.
Yet despite the turmoil, in some cases, these positive bits of news led to double-digit share price increases and prompted analysts to upgrade their earnings estimates.
This is interesting because studies have shown that firms seeing increases in forecast earnings tend to outperform over time as investors adjust expectations.
For example, a 2006 study by Livnat and Mendenhall showed the combination of an ‘earnings surprise’ (earnings ahead of analysts’ expectations) with ‘revision momentum’ (analysts raising future estimates) is a powerful factor in driving stocks higher.
Why is outperformance persistent?
Researchers believe there are behavioural factors which explain sustained outperformance rather than a ‘once only’ price spike.
Investors tend to follow the adage that ‘one swallow does not make a summer’ and are slow to update their outlook. They usually wait for further evidence, just in case the initial earnings revision was a fluke.
Secondly, revisions tend to come in ‘clusters’ like the proverbial number nine bus. Once one analyst upgrades, others tend to follow, creating several months of upwards revisions.
The table shows a selection of UK companies which have delivered better than expected earnings updates in 2026.
Raspberry Pi - from doghouse to top of the class
Single-board computer maker Raspberry Pi was down in the dumps as recently as February with the shares trading at 12-month lows of around 257p.
Investors were worried that demand from AI data centres would divert production of memory chips away from consumer electronics uses and raise prices, impacting demand for Raspberry Pi’s low-cost computers.
Those fears proved to be a boon rather than a constraint after the company delivered a better than expected 25% increase in full year profits in late March.
The memory chips used in around two-thirds of the company’s products increased in price by a factor of seven over the prior year, which the company was able to pass on through supportive channel partners.
The company said that while sales momentum has continued, second half visibility was limited.
The shares gained 47% on 31 March and are up 74% so far in 2026, but remain below the £7.70 highs of January 2025, showing how volatile the shares have been over the last year.
Trustpilot - turning threat into opportunity
Trustpilot shares gained nearly a third on 17 March after the ratings company allayed fears that AI could make its business obsolete by replacing manual searches.
The company almost tripled pre-tax profit in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), a measure of cash flow, coming in significantly ahead of analysts’ expectations.
Profit margins expanded to 15.5%, demonstrating the company could effectively scale operations into higher profitability.
CEO Adrian Blair noted a ‘dramatic rise’ in the use of Trustpilot data by AI models as a primary source to authenticate business reputation.
Analysts have subsequently nudged up their financial 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by 15% and 27% respectively, suggesting they now see AI search as a new source of traffic rather than a threat.
Saga sees plain sailing
Over 50s travel and insurance group Saga raised its 2026 full year profit outlook at the end of January driven by ‘strong’ demand for ocean and river cruises.
Full year results on 15 April came in roughly in line with the upgraded guidance and the company said it was tracking ahead plans to achieve its medium-term goals.
While noting that global travel had been hit by the war in the Middle East Saga reassured investors that it has ‘minimal’ exposure to the region.
The shares gained as much as 8% on the results to scale new seven-year highs of 630p, taking 2026 gains to 63%.
After years of being weighed down by heavy debts management confirmed the company had passed ‘peak’ debt levels will plans to further reduce net debt to equity, a measure of financial leverage, to two times by 2030
This means that a greater proportion of future profits will be available to distribute to shareholders.
New highs for Volex
Volex shares scaled new highs after upgrading full year earnings on 27 March and confirming that it does not anticipate any near-term impact from current Middle East tensions.
The maker of mission-critical applications and power solutions said it continued to trade well and now expected full year results to be ‘significantly’ ahead of market expectations.
The board said it is considering moving the firm’s listing to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange.
Martin Gamble: Shares and Markets Writer
Martin Gamble is Shares and Markets writer at AJ Bell. He was previously the Education Editor of Shares Magazine. He has been with the business since 2019.
Martin graduated from the University of Kent in...
