Russ Mould is AJ Bell's Investment Director. He has a Master's degree in Modern History from the University of Oxford and more than 30 years' experience of the capital markets.
He started out at Scottish Equitable in 1991 as a fund manager, where he had responsibility for the Nordic and Swiss equity markets. In 1993, Russ joined SG Warburg, now part of UBS investment bank, and worked there as an equity analyst covering the technology sectors for 12 years. He has also worked on IPOs and M&A deals. Russ was voted best analyst in the semiconductor sector in 2001 by Institutional Investor and reached the level of Managing Director in 2003 when he became head of UBS' global semiconductor research effort.
A member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (MSCI), Russ is responsible for providing written and video content for customers and clients. He also helps to build the company’s profile in print and broadcast media as part of AJ Bell's wider PR and brand team, working alongside the Investment Committee.
Russ joined Shares Magazine as technology correspondent in 2005 and took on the post of Editor in 2008. He was appointed as AJ Bell's Investment Director in 2013 following the company's acquisition of Shares' parent company, MSM Media. Russ regularly creates content across the AJ Bell website, including the Daily Market Update and Chart of the Week, and he hosts his own 'Breaking the Mould' weekly video series.
Outside of work, Russ is a qualified cricket coach, Italian speaker and avid fan of Doctor Who and NFL.
20 December 2017
Five themes that look set to shape portfolio returns in 2018After last week’s attempts to learn key lessons from 2017, this column will now turn its attention to the year ahead. In the (unfortunate) absence of a crystal ball, no promises or guarantees can be offered, but below are five themes which investors will need to think about when it comes to portfolio strategy in 2018 and beyond.
They are:
Central...
14 December 2017
Five themes from 2017 that could influence 2018There can be no denying 2017 was an eventful year and making money was not entirely straightforward, even allowing for Bitcoin’s surge into the stratosphere. Bonds generally struggled, commodities were mixed and equities provided the best returns, albeit with very wide performance gaps between the best and the worst geographies, sectors and stocks...
8 December 2017
Why commodities’ stale performance looks odd in 2017One intriguing trend of note this year is the turgid performance of the Bloomberg Commodities index, a basket of 22 raw materials, encompassing energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural commodities, ranging from grains to crops to livestock.
The Bloomberg Commodities index has meandered even as the Baltic Dry index has steamed...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter one: UKMarch 2019 is drawing ever nearer but the Brexit picture is still unclear, even after Prime Minister Theresa May’s intervention in the Brussels-based negotiations with her September speech in Florence.
November’s talks between David Davis, British Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, and Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter two: USAIt is hard to believe but President Donald J. Trump will be almost half way through his first term in office by November 2018, when he will face a test that may give a clue as to whether this will be his only four-year stint in the White House.
Americans in 36 states and three territories will be voting for their State Governors. More pertinently...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter three: JapanWith the Nikkei 225 and Topix stock benchmarks touching twenty-year peaks, the yen rising against the dollar and the economy putting together its best streak of quarterly GDP increases for a decade investors could be forgiven that everything in the Japanese garden is rosy.
The Nikkei 225 ended 2017 with a powerful run, aided and abetted by Prime...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter four: AsiaIt is hard to believe that the 19th Communist Party Congress in China, the fall and arrest of a President in Seoul and a hung Parliament in New Zealand could be so comprehensively overshadowed, but North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests managed precisely that in 2017.
The foreign policy of Kim Jong-un will remain front of mind for anyone with...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter five: Western EuropeWhile by no means conclusive in laying to rest the threat posed by anti-EU parties, the Dutch, French and German elections of 2017 are encouraging leaders in Paris, Brussels and Berlin to press ahead with greater political and economic integration, rather than loosen existing ties. Even as the Brexit negotiations grind slowly on, the next big test...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter six: Emerging MarketsElections in Mexico and Brazil will help to set the tone in Latin America in 2018, especially if those countries follow Argentina’s political drift to the right and its embrace of the market-friendly policies of President Mauricio Macri.
Politics also remains centre-stage in Eastern Europe, even if the result of March’s Presidential Election in...
30 November 2017
Three quick tests to make sure the US stock market isn’t a turkeyA relentless series of new all-time highs in benchmark stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite mean that America’s financial markets continue to write nearly as many headlines as its President.
Buoyed by hopes for growth-stimulating tax reform and ongoing faith in the US Federal Reserve’s ability to provide...
22 November 2017
How to assess whether infrastructure funds can be a useful portfolio assetThe concrete word “infrastructure” is regularly bandied about in conversations that cover the more nebulous term “productivity,” as economists and analysts alike try to fathom why certain economies and workforces seem to be more efficient than others.
But building new facilities or upgrading old ones can be expensive and time-consuming, so from...
16 November 2017
How to ensure rotation can keep portfolios fertile rather than fallowHe may have been in charge of foreign policy under George I, but eighteenth-century politician Charles Townshend is best known as ‘Turnip’ Townshend for his work in the field of agriculture. He introduced the four-crop field rotation system, as wheat, barley, clover and turnips were grown annually in order in enclosure. The system helped keep the...
9 November 2017
Why investors need to keep an eye on this most taxing of issuesThe kerfuffle caused by the Paradise Papers is unlikely to die down for some time as it shines a light on corporate behaviour that is not entirely flattering.
This column will not go into the ins and outs of the individual cases mentioned for fear of both entering a legal minefield and becoming embroiled in a debate which can be as much about...
26 October 2017
How to make sure portfolios do not get entangled in a web of technology stocksA couple of weeks ago this column mentioned a throwaway comment provided by a shrewd fund manager that: “There is no value in momentum [stocks] and no momentum in value [stocks].”
This issue has reared its head again, as this column has attended events hosted by
Schroders, Fidelity and M&G which have covered a range of topics from emerging...
18 October 2017
How to guard against a market crashMonday 19 October 1987 will live in the memory of investors as the day of Black Monday stock market crash. But this is not the only anniversary of note that has already been marked in 2017.
The Asian currency devaluations and debt crisis happened 20 years ago and we have just passed the tenth anniversary of the failure of Northern Rock.
Each date...
12 October 2017
Enter the DragonAt the start of 2017, India was the hottest topic in town when it came to Asian financial markets. Prime Minister Modi’s reform programme and falling interest rates were supposed to supplement helpful long-term demographics to provide strong corporate earnings and a soaring stock market.
For once, the consensus view was remarkably prescient. Mumbai...
5 October 2017
What oil stocks could be telling investorsFor all of the confusion over Brexit, the Bank of England’s plans for interest rates and the trajectory of the UK economy (which for choice looks to be losing momentum again), one thing does seem clear: the FTSE 100 is doing a very good job of going nowhere fast.
FTSE 100 has gone sideways for 18 monthsSource: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Perhaps...
27 September 2017
The lessons everyone can learn from JapanWith the Nikkei 225 and Topix stock benchmarks touching two-year peaks, the yen at a 12-month high against the dollar and the economy putting together its best streak of quarterly GDP increases for a decade, investors could be forgiven for thinking that everything in the Japanese garden is rosy.
Yet the Nikkei 225 has underperformed for the second...
14 September 2017
How to assess whether UK stocks can raise a gallop to the end of the yearAny investors who followed the old market maxim “Sell In May” will hopefully not feel too sore, as the FTSE 100 made awfully hard work of scratching out a 2% capital gain during the summer months.
But a gain is a gain and the index’s ability to make any progress at all in the face of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, heated rhetoric between North...
7 September 2017
How to get your kicks from the VIXNeither a natural disaster in Texas, nor elevated tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, the tardy pace of Brexit negotiations or soggy wage growth worldwide have stirred stock markets from their slumbers over the summer.
Across June, July and August, the FTSE 100 rose or fell by 1% or more in a single day’s trading just seven times – once...
16 August 2017
How to spot the next FTSE 100 profits accident – before it happens Unilever’s move to trigger management share awards off underlying earnings, the ongoing debate over the role of auditors in the wake of the accounting scandal at BT’s operations in Italy and shareholder protests over executive pay packets at Smith & Nephew, Burberry and Persimmon all flag the importance of how companies not just make a profit but...
3 August 2017
Why pricing power matters when it comes to picking stocksBack in May, this column looked at how to test whether a forecast dividend payment from a company was safe or potentially at risk of a cut, in the form of a check-list of financial ratios (see here).
But such research needs to dig deeper still.
We will now look at the operational characteristics of those companies which have the most consistent...
26 July 2017
Everything you wanted to know about Bitcoin (but were afraid to ask)Normally people get excited by lower prices and discounts as it makes things cheaper to buy. In the case of quoted securities it potentially makes them more profitable and safer to own, as disciples of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham will argue that buying at low valuation can both increase your upside and protect your downside.
But one of the...
20 July 2017
Share buybacks: pros and consIf a firm has a strong competitive position, which in turn grants it pricing power, there is a fair chance that the company will be able to generate consistently good operating margins and cash flow and therefore be able to return cash to investors.
And ultimately it is the ability to return cash to shareholders that separates share certificates...
13 July 2017
How to spot a share price collapse before it happensA profit warning, a decision to cut the dividend to zero and the sudden resignation of the chief executive mean shares in FTSE 250 index member Carillion are trading at 71p compared to more than 190p only a week ago.
To many investors, such carnage seems remarkable when six analysts cover the stock, according to the website www.brokerforecast.com...
6 July 2017
Food retailers seek to prove their value credentials – to both customers and investorsOne way in which “value” investors operate is to look at what has done badly and to see if there is potential for a change in fortunes, which could leave a stock or even a whole sector looking underappreciated, oversold and – ultimately – cheap.
One grouping which remains in the doldrums is the Food & Drug Retailers sector. This is dominated by the...
30 June 2017
Investments to watch when the oil price movesLast week we looked at the four indicators which could help investors to spot turning points in the oil price (which is currently hovering around $46 a barrel, using Brent crude as a benchmark, just above its year lows). They were:
US oil inventories US and global oil rig activity US shale oil output The oil futures markets and whether...
23 June 2017
Why oil’s latest slide matters to UK investorsOil prices are sliding to fresh lows for the year, despite May’s agreement in Vienna by OPEC and leading non-OPEC members (notably Russia) to stick to and extend the production cuts first announced last November by nine more months to the end of March 2018.
Oil is trading at new lows for 2017Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
This will be as...
16 June 2017
Why the tech sector remains a key sentiment indicator for global stocksNo sooner had America’s technology-laden NASDAQ Composite stock index crossed the 6,000 mark for the first time in late April than two of its leading members, Amazon and Alphabet, have seen their share price reach $1,000.
The numbers in themselves mean little in absolute terms but they do signal that technology is well and truly back in fashion...
9 June 2017
Hung Parliament may not hamstring FTSE 100(although oil, the dollar, metals prices and interest rates still could)
A dreadfully poor campaign, where the slogan “Strong and Stable Government” smacked far too much of Tory Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin’s uninspiring and unsuccessful “Safety First” campaign of 1929, has caught up with Theresa May and the Conservative Party and eroded its...
31 May 2017
Five ways to value a stockOne of the most important lessons of investing is to buy as cheaply as you can (with the ultimate aim of selling as expensively as you can, or even not selling at all, if you really pick a winner).
While they may sound like the blindingly obvious, investors can occasionally be seduced, especially when markets are rising, to forget this discipline....
24 May 2017
How to check whether ETFs are right for your portfolioLast week’s column noted the phenomenal rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the concept of passive investment. This is best exemplified by data from independent consultant ETFGI which shows that $197 billion flowed into ETFs worldwide in the first quarter of 2017. That compared to inflows of $70 billion in the same period in 2016 and was...
18 May 2017
4 reasons to include ETFs in your portfolioAccording to data from independent consultant ETFGI, global fund flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) came to $197 billion in the first quarter of 2017. That compares to inflows of $70 billion in the same period in 2016 and is enough to take total assets under management to $3.9 trillion.
It is easy to see why this trend is developing so...
11 May 2017
Four ways to test whether a dividend is safe or notThe swingeing dividend cut from Talk Talk and BT’s decision to abandon its plan to increase its shareholder pay-out by 10% a year are both timely reminders to investors of the dangers of over-reaching for yield in a low-interest-rate world.
BT’s shares held up relatively well on the news, albeit in the wake of a near 30% slide over the past 12...
5 May 2017
Why retailers may be looking to the pound for some reliefAt its core, stock-picking can be pretty simple stuff.
The key is to identify firms which are going to show the best profit and dividend growth. (The hard part is doing the research into companies’ business models, competitive position, financial strength and management acumen so you have a good grasp of the firms’ potential to consistently...
27 April 2017
Why the Conservatives power cap pledge may not short circuit the FTSEConfirmation from the Conservative Party that its manifesto will feature a commitment to cap certain power tariffs charged by the Big Six energy providers means that FTSE 100 Centrica and SSE are both among the list of the 10 worst performers in the FTSE 100 over the past week and the past month, while both are also in the bottom 15 on a three-...
19 April 2017
How to research commercial property fundsLast week this column looked at the UK commercial property sector and did so from the perspective of quoted property development and management companies known as Real Estate Investment Trusts (or REITs).
This was because commercial property stocks have begun to perform better after a lengthy period in the doldrums following the UK’s referendum...
13 April 2017
Three reasons why commercial property is back in the investment spotlightThe FTSE 100 is off to a decent start, showing a capital gain of 3% to date, but the FTSE 250 is up by nearly 7%. This suggests that the dominant post-referendum theme of ‘pound down, stocks up’ is proving less powerful in 2017 than it did in 2016, as the more domestically-focused mid-cap benchmark is doing better than its better-known mega-cap...
5 April 2017
Three themes to draw from the start of 2017The markets cannot always be right (not least as it would be impossible for investors to make money from them if all securities were always appropriately priced and valued) but their views must always be respected.
As such, it is worth pondering what lessons can be drawn from the price action witnessed in the first quarter of 2017, to see what the...
29 March 2017
Why valuation and cash flow matter more than politics when it comes to long-term share portfolio returnsShare prices have so far responded negatively to the abandonment of a vote on President Donald Trump’s healthcare plan (24 March).
The first real political setback for the Trump reform programme offers a timely reminder that long-term investors in stocks are better served by focusing on company cash flows and valuation than second-guessing what...
23 March 2017
How positive earnings and dividend momentum underpin FTSE 100’s gainsAt the time of writing the FTSE 100 sits just above the 7,300 mark, a fraction below the new record-highs north of 7,400 reached earlier in the month.
One reason for the fresh gains may be positive momentum in corporate earnings and dividend forecasts.
Ultimately it is profits and cash flows that dictate long-term returns from securities, either...
17 March 2017
What to look for as the fund management industry continues to consolidateThe initial flurry of excitement regarding Standard Life’s plan to acquire Aberdeen Asset Management for £3.8 billion in stock is fading, as investors question whether the industrial logic is strong enough to justify the swoop that will create a £660 billion asset manager.
Aberdeen’s shares have slipped to 269p, below the 286.5p offer price...
9 March 2017
Spring budget 2017: a round upGiven that Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond had already declared his intention to move the Budget from Spring to Autumn no-one was expecting him to do too much.
From an investment perspective he lived down to low expectations and there were no changes to pensions tax relief. Investors are likely to be grateful on both counts.
The economic...
9 March 2017
Retailers face up to the twin threats of a weak pound and ‘peak stuff’The first fall in non-food retail sales for six years in the three months to February, according to data from the BRC-KPMG monthly survey (7 March), helps to explain why the UK’s General Retail stocks continue to perform so dismally, even as investors remain generally upbeat on the prospects for future growth and equities in general.
The FTSE All...
2 March 2017
Big house builders need to reassure on growthIn these income-starved times of record-low interest rates and depressed bond yields it is hard to believe that a FTSE 100 stock would barely move when the management team affirms dividend plans that equate to a 7.7% yield for 2017.
But shares in Taylor Wimpey yawned at exactly such an announcement at the end of last month (28 February), mirroring...
23 February 2017
Investors in FTSE 100 banks face a choice between growth and yieldDeadlines mean this document must be written just before Friday’s full-year results from RBS and Standard Chartered but the figures published from the other members of the Big Five FTSE 100 banks make for instructive reading and continue to move share prices.
Barclays and Lloyds appear to be in investors’ good books.
A higher dividend from Lloyds...
14 February 2017
Why the big lenders banks remain a bankable indicator for the wider health of marketsOne of this column’s key themes for 2017 is the health of UK banks and why this is important to any investors with exposure to the UK equity market.
The Big five quoted names – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Chartered – represent around 15% of aggregate FTSE 100 pre-tax profit and dividend payments, according to...
9 February 2017
How to tell whether the yield curve is about to throw the markets a fastballFor all of their ongoing enthusiasm for the reflationary ‘Trump’ trade, stock markets have stopped going up and bond markets have stopped going down on both sides of the Atlantic, at least for the moment. To further muddy the waters, the dollar has weakened and gold poked its head back above the $1,200-an-ounce mark.
Despite the misgivings voiced...
3 February 2017
Time to see whether the “three steps and a stumble” rule will apply or not in 2017While markets were spot on when they put just a 4% chance on a rate rise from the US Federal Reserve at its first policy meeting of the year last Wednesday (1 February) the American central bank is still targeting three interest rate increases, of 0.25% each for 2017.
That would take the Fed Funds target rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% from its...
26 January 2017
How to assess whether China will offer anything to crow about in the Year of the RoosterFirst of all this column would like to wish all of its regular readers kung hei fat choi, offering good wishes as China’s Year of the Rooster begins on Saturday 28 January.
Roosters are reportedly punctual and trustworthy and since this is a Fire year among the Chinese elements, those born in the coming 12 months will supposedly be good at managing...
