Russ Mould is AJ Bell's Investment Director. He has a Master's degree in Modern History from the University of Oxford and more than 30 years' experience of the capital markets.
He started out at Scottish Equitable in 1991 as a fund manager, where he had responsibility for the Nordic and Swiss equity markets. In 1993, Russ joined SG Warburg, now part of UBS investment bank, and worked there as an equity analyst covering the technology sectors for 12 years. He has also worked on IPOs and M&A deals. Russ was voted best analyst in the semiconductor sector in 2001 by Institutional Investor and reached the level of Managing Director in 2003 when he became head of UBS' global semiconductor research effort.
A member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (MSCI), Russ is responsible for providing written and video content for customers and clients. He also helps to build the company’s profile in print and broadcast media as part of AJ Bell's wider PR and brand team, working alongside the Investment Committee.
Russ joined Shares Magazine as technology correspondent in 2005 and took on the post of Editor in 2008. He was appointed as AJ Bell's Investment Director in 2013 following the company's acquisition of Shares' parent company, MSM Media. Russ regularly creates content across the AJ Bell website, including the Daily Market Update and Chart of the Week, and he hosts his own 'Breaking the Mould' weekly video series.
Outside of work, Russ is a qualified cricket coach, Italian speaker and avid fan of Doctor Who and NFL.
18 March 2016
Chancellor opens alphabet soup of ISAs and sours on sugary drinksThe Treasury seemed to resemble a colander rather than a Government department in the run up to this year’s Budget, at least judging by the number of apparent leaks on the big decisions running up the opening of that famous red box, but Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne still came up with a few big surprises.
From a personal finance point...
18 March 2016
Emerging markets start to show signs of lifeRegular readers will be (perhaps painfully) aware for this column’s penchant for quoting the old market maxim: “You can have good news and cheap stocks, just not both at the same time.” It may be pertinent to look at a possible current example of this, in the form of emerging market equities, which are showing signs of life after three poor years.
...
14 March 2016
Central banks take centre stage once more
The European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday 10 March to unveil a new four-pronged stimulus package begins a key week for policy decisions from the world’s leading monetary authorities. After President Mario Draghi’s latest moves to:
Cut the headline interest rate to zero from 0.05% Cut the deposit rate to -0.4% from -0.3%, increasing the...
7 March 2016
FTSE 100 reaches critical stage in its battle to beat the bearAfter a brief flirtation with bear market territory and a 20% peak-to-trough decline, the FTSE 100 is now rallying, leaving investors to decide whether the worst is behind us or not.
All sorts of behavioural traps and biases lie in wait here, not least as we are all aware that markets have over time tended to go up and that the bear case often...
26 February 2016
What a Brexit vote could mean for British stocks, bonds and the pound It is interesting to see Prime Minister David Cameron equate voting to leave the EU on 23 June with “a step in the dark”, as he gives the UK electorate the ultimate say on 43 years of membership of the economic bloc.That phrase is very close to the “leap in the dark” used by the now-defunct Punch magazine with regard to the 1867 (Second) Reform...
17 February 2016
How to prepare for financial market volatilityBy 12 February, the FTSE 100 had risen or fallen by more than 1% from open to close on 19 trading days out of 30. That was the most in any year going back to at least 1995 and the only years which come close to this year’s figure are 2000 and 2008.They saw 16 and 14 such movements respectively by 12 February and unfortunately neither of those years...
15 February 2016
How crude calculations continue to influence marketsStock markets remain rocky and very few asset classes are providing any shelter from the storm – Government bond yields are compressing as prices rise, the yen is trying to go higher and gold has rallied strongly after five years in the doldrums as some investors start to follow the yellow brick road, as it were.
Yet the only commodity really...
4 February 2016
How to look for a port in a monetary stormAnd so the good ship Central Bank sails deeper into uncharted waters. A mere one week after denying such measures would be required, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda late last month oversaw a cut in Japanese interest rates from 0.1% to minus 0.1%.
This leaves Japan in the same company as Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland, all of whom already...
2 February 2016
What next for Lloyds after Osborne delays share saleChancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has surprised the markets by postponing the proposed sale of the Government’s final 9% stake in Lloyds, which had been slated for the spring.
The Chancellor cited market volatility, which has left Lloyds’ share price around the 65p mark at the time of writing, well below the Government’s average purchase...
1 February 2016
How to prepare for a bear market (just in case)At the time of writing, the FTSE All-Share index stands as 3,235, down 16% from its April 2015 high of 3,834, right on the brink of “bear market” territory, which is defined as a fall of 20% from the top.
While this may not sound like fun, it could be worse. China, Germany, Italy, Russia, Brazil, Hong Kong and America’s leading small-cap index, the...
21 January 2016
A five-point checklist to see when markets may hit the bottomGlobal stock and commodity markets have had a torrid start to the year, while currency markets remain volatile and only Government bonds, the yen and gold have offered any comfort at all.
The task facing every investor now is to step back from the day-to-day noise and work out whether stocks have further to fall or whether this is a chance to buy...
14 January 2016
Five themes that could set the tone in 2016After last week’s attempts to learn key lessons from 2015, this column will now turn its attention to the year ahead. In the (unfortunate) absence of a crystal ball, no promises or guarantees can be offered, but below are five themes which investors need to think about when it comes to portfolio strategy in 2016 and beyond.
They are
Oil will...
7 January 2016
Five key themes from 2015 that could influence 2016There can be no denying 2015 was an eventful year, even if it left investors in mainstream stocks or bonds, or mainstream stock and bond funds, little better off at the end than they were at the start.
It began with the Swiss National Bank’s decision to break the Swiss franc’s peg to the euro (which prompted the Swiss counter to soar, cleaning out...
22 December 2015
How to be a successful income investor in 2016The US Federal Reserve’s decision to move headline American interest rates higher for the first time in nearly 10 years begs three important questions:
First, what will the degree and pace of any further increments be? Second, will the Bank of England start to follow suit and increase returns on cash here? Third, what are the implications for...
17 December 2015
How to get the lowdown on diggers and drillers for 2016As we approach the end of 2015, the FTSE 100 is down by 8% to 10%, weighed down by two sectors in particular – oil and mining.
Fellow heavyweights pharmaceuticals and banks have hardly covered themselves in glory either, with declines of 6% and 19% this year but those efforts look good compared to the diggers and drillers.
As 15 December, the FTSE...
11 December 2015
Any fudge from the Fed will only create further indigestionFollowing two strong non-farm payrolls reports, investors seem convinced that a US rate rise is almost a certainty when the US Federal Reserve meets on 15-16 December.
For the moment, US markets seem equally content to believe America’s economy is strong enough to withstand a rate rise.
If this proves to be the case, US stocks may still do well...
12 November 2015
Low rates emphasise the virtues of long-term assetsThis column does not stray Down Under too often, barring an occasional foray into the world of mining, but the A$6.3 billion (£3 billion) bid for Asciano from a consortium trying to head off a rival Canadian approach catches the eye. The potential target is an Australian rail and port operator and in an era of low growth and record-low interest...
12 November 2015
Transport stocks flag risk of a global slow punctureFans and detractors of this column both point out its trainspotter-ish tendencies, something that will be taken as a compliment whether it is meant as one or not. And regular readers will be very familiar with our regular looks at transportation stocks in search for signals that cut through the market noise.
Freight, shipping, truck, train and...
4 November 2015
Bond funds continue to play the duration gameHere we go again. No sooner does market action start to take a distinctly deflationary bias than a major central bank pipes up with some fresh monetary stimulus, or at least starts to drop some awfully heavy hints in that direction. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi appears to be considering an increase to the Eurozone’s €1.2 trillion...
29 October 2015
Small caps look to build on solid yearAIM’s 1,063 members have a total market cap of around £73 billion compared to the 982 firms which make up the £2.1 trillion Main Market. That’s a 3.3% weighting toward AIM, a figure which can act as a benchmark for assessing whether a multi-cap fund is suitable for an investor’s risk appetite or not. Anything above that, the investor will need a...
19 October 2015
Why Lloyds and the banks are so important to the UK market for 2016The Government’s plans to sell its remaining stake in Lloyds and place a £2 billion block of stock with retail investors next spring means the bank is going to have a very high profile – and with good reason because it is one of the most important stocks in what looks to be the single most important sector in the UK market.
Chancellor of the...
8 October 2015
Why oil is important when it comes to picking an income fundWhen Goldman Sachs speaks, markets listen. So when the giant US investment bank last month suggested a worst-case scenario could see oil hit $20 a barrel in 2016, the result was quite a flap, even if this was not Goldman’s base case. Bears got excited as they warned of economic weakness and the risk of a new deflationary downturn. Bulls shrugged...
2 October 2015
Emerging markets look for light at the end of the tunnelThe old market saying that you can have cheap assets and low valuations, just not both at the same time, applies to continental and national equity indices as well as it does to individual stocks or bonds. Perhaps one approach to sniffing out where the value may lie is to look at what is doing badly, why and whether a case can then be made for it...
25 September 2015
How the need for income could underpin UK stocksLast week this column touched on the issue of the vexed issue of the valuation of the UK stock market, using market capitalisation to GDP as the key metric. The results provided a bit of a question mark over the long-term direction of stocks, given that on this metric the UK looks expensive relative to its own history, unless corporate...
16 September 2015
Why lofty corporate profits question current market valuationsValuation is the ultimate arbiter of the return on investment from any portfolio pick. No matter how strong the narrative, paying too much can lead to losses, while paying a lowly valuation can provide downside protection and the basis for positive long-term returns, once an asset’s true charms come to be better appreciated.
The tricky bit is...
10 September 2015
How to judge the market mood“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
This is just one of the many widely-quoted aphorisms from master investor Warren Buffett, whose long-term...
28 August 2015
Why indices matter when it comes to portfolio performanceWhile looking into the exact composition of a financial market index may seem no more relevant to some investors than a debate over how many angels you can fit on the head of a pin, the make-up of key benchmarks can be a vital contributor to portfolio returns. This issue is only likely to become more acute at a time when more and more of us are...
21 August 2015
What China’s currency move could mean for your portfolioChina’s move to let its currency, the yuan, slide by some 3% to 4% against the US dollar has potentially huge ramifications for investors’ portfolios, even if the move itself can hardly be described as huge. The yuan has gently appreciated for more than a decade although that process may now have come to a halt.
Chinese’s currency fall against the...
12 August 2015
How to spot a blowing bubbleIt is very rare for this column to be lost for words but it does sometimes happen. A recent presentation at a school in Brighton, given to classes of 14-15 year olds on the subject of “how the stock market works”, came to a crashing halt when confronted by the question: “Since it’s so easy to spot a bubble after the fact, why can’t people do so...
12 August 2015
Why the slump in commodity prices mattersMarkets continue to focus on when the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise interest rates, by how much and for how long. Yet last month’s Federal Open Markets Committee passed by with chair Janet Yellen offering no more clarity than before, as the carefully constructed minutes left all options open to America’s monetary policy...
31 July 2015
Why clients may yearn for Japan despite the yenThe scrapping of a proposed $2 billion design for the 2020 Olympic Stadium in Tokyo and a corporate accounting scandal at the giant Toshiba conglomerate put Japan firmly back in the headlines. Even if this is not the sort of news that Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would rather not be making, his “Three Arrows” reform package continues to chime with...
22 July 2015
What a US rate rise could mean for marketsAccording to Benjamin Franklin “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” but it is another American who currently dominates markets’ attentions, at least when it comes to rates of return. All eyes are on the chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen as the central bank’s policy makers prepare themselves for meetings on 28-29 July and...
22 July 2015
What we can all learn from China’s stock market slideYou may well be aware of the extraordinary movement seen over the past month – indeed the past year - in the Chinese equity market. Whether you have any holdings or not, via funds, exchange-traded funds or London-listed Chinese stocks, there are clear lessons which we can all draw from the stunning rise and sudden collapse in the Shanghai and...
10 July 2015
How the Greek crisis could affect portfoliosWhile the result of the Greek referendum (5 July) looks dramatic, particularly given the huge margin of victory recorded by those who campaigned against acceptance of the latest European Union bail-out and reforms proposal, in reality it changes little.
For his part, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is arguing this strengthens his hand when it...
9 July 2015
What the Summer Budget means for your savings and investmentsChancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s Summer Budget is a boon for political commentators, economists and historians alike, as all will have plenty to debate, given his emphasis on hard work, low tax, the Northern Powerhouse and One Nation Toryism. But more practically, there is a lot for savers and investors to digest too after the release...
6 July 2015
Greece is the wordGreece's failure to repay €1.5 billion owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 30 June may have only a limited economic impact on the Eurozone (unless you are Greek) but its wider effect on financial markets and investors' portfolios remains harder to judge.
The uncertainty may help to explain why the FTSE All-Share has just had its...
3 July 2015
Macro and multi-asset funds look to make the headlinesIn a year when we have already seen the Swiss franc rocket, crude oil prices bounce and sovereign bond prices gyrate horribly investors could be forgiven for feeling exhausted as we approach the summer holiday season. Yet the ongoing Greek drama, an abrupt correction in Chinese stocks and debate over the timing and speed of interest rate rises in...
24 June 2015
Asia look rattled by the greenback’s riseWhether the reason is concerns over the timing of US interest rate rises, fatigue with the ongoing Greek debt drama or a simply the traditional summer lull, equities are giving up some of the ground earned during the earlier part of the year. Moreover, Emerging and Frontier markets have ceded nearly all of their gains for 2015 and Developed arenas...
19 June 2015
Markets look for a better deal from raw materialsInvestors know all too well that following the crowd – the consensus – is usually a quick way to the poor house. Meanwhile, going against the herd can often bring the best long-term results, even if the wait for market opinion to turn and go your way can often be longer than expected and therefore uncomfortable.
At the moment the one asset class...
12 June 2015
Looking for liquid alternativesIt was privilege to attend the sixth annual ETF.com Inside ETFs conference in Amsterdam earlier this month (8-10 June), even if the inside of two taxis, the venue and Schiphol airport were all I saw of the beautiful Dutch city. The event covered a huge range of topics related to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and it was a particular pleasure to...
8 June 2015
Markets steam higher even as Transport index hits the buffersEquity indices as diverse as America's Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ Composite, the UK's FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, Germany's DAX, Israel's TA-25 and Sweden's OMX-30 have reached new peaks in 2015, while Japan's Nikkei 225 stands at an 18-year high and China's Shanghai Composite at levels last seen some five years ago.
As such, the bulls seem to be...
1 June 2015
Waiting for Uncle Sam to turn the cornerOne of the most interesting developments of 2015 is how the market's enthusiasm for US equities appears to be cooling. Even the dollar's strength relative to sterling offers only a minor amount of comfort to UK-based clients who will, ultimately, be banking their returns in pounds and pence rather than nickels and dimes.
US is lagging the pack in...
27 May 2015
The lessons to draw from the bond market blitzMany investors will use bonds as ballast for their portfolio. During their lifetime, these tradable debt securities will provide regular income in the form of coupons, paid in a set amount at a pre-determined time – that Is why bonds are known as “fixed income,” after all. Unless the issuer of the debt gets into financial trouble the original...
18 May 2015
Election result offers fresh questions as well as answersAccording to T.S. Eliot’s multi-layered poem The Waste Land April is the cruellest month, but if you are Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage then May is already proving to be no fun at all. Rough winds have given all three a vigorous shaking and potentially left their careers with all too short a date, from their perspective at least, if not...
15 May 2015
Activist funds are still seeking tempting targetsThe one hundred and forty first running of the Kentucky Derby, may have gone to form when punters' favourite American Pharoah romped home (2 May) but the corporate sponsor of America's greatest horse-race may not have enjoyed themselves quite as much as normal. Yum! Brands is the the operator of licensed brands such as KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut...
5 May 2015
Consider the passive optionFor this week’s edition this column is indebted to the London Stock Exchange for pointing out that the UK’s first Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has just celebrated its fifteenth anniversary. iShares FTSE 100, which comes with the ticker ISF, began trading in London in late April 2000. The instrument now has £3.8 billion of assets under management and...
29 April 2015
Election 2015: how the ballot could bother the marketsEquity, bond and currency markets remain in thrall to the General Election as the leading parties' campaigns grind remorselessly toward the actual ballot on 7 May. Who will be the nation's Prime Minister after the poll is still open to doubt and the consensus view appears to be a coalition is inevitable, even if no-one knows which parties may be...
24 April 2015
Dollar continues to call the shots worldwideSaint Augustine of Hippo is well-known for works such as Confessions and The City of God but the fourth century AD Christian theologian may be most famous for his prayer “Grant me chastity and continence but not yet.” Uttered as he looked to embrace Christianity and the priesthood – and thus celibacy – these few words highlighted Augustine's choice...
20 April 2015
Little fish can be sweetSmall cap stocks tend to outperform while the good times roll, bulls are in charge and risk appetite is elevated. The chart below shows how the FTSE Small Cap index has left the FTSE 100 for dead during the course of the bull market which began in March 2009 and even the AIM All-Share has (just) managed to outpace the UK's megacap benchmark.
Mid -...
10 April 2015
Markets continue to follow the moneyThis month (4 April) marks the second anniversary of Japan launching its own version of Quantitative Easing (QE). When the scheme was first announced by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the idea was to let QE run for two years and then stop. That deadline now looks to have been quietly dropped, especially as Kuroda actually sanctioned an...
