Russ Mould is AJ Bell's Investment Director. He has a Master's degree in Modern History from the University of Oxford and more than 30 years' experience of the capital markets.
He started out at Scottish Equitable in 1991 as a fund manager, where he had responsibility for the Nordic and Swiss equity markets. In 1993, Russ joined SG Warburg, now part of UBS investment bank, and worked there as an equity analyst covering the technology sectors for 12 years. He has also worked on IPOs and M&A deals. Russ was voted best analyst in the semiconductor sector in 2001 by Institutional Investor and reached the level of Managing Director in 2003 when he became head of UBS' global semiconductor research effort.
A member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (MSCI), Russ is responsible for providing written and video content for customers and clients. He also helps to build the company’s profile in print and broadcast media as part of AJ Bell's wider PR and brand team, working alongside the Investment Committee.
Russ joined Shares Magazine as technology correspondent in 2005 and took on the post of Editor in 2008. He was appointed as AJ Bell's Investment Director in 2013 following the company's acquisition of Shares' parent company, MSM Media. Russ regularly creates content across the AJ Bell website, including the Daily Market Update and Chart of the Week, and he hosts his own 'Breaking the Mould' weekly video series.
Outside of work, Russ is a qualified cricket coach, Italian speaker and avid fan of Doctor Who and NFL.
1 August 2024
HSBC’s bumper cash returns mean FTSE 100 buyback boom continues“The debate over the rights and wrongs of the bumper profits made by banking giant HSBC will run and run but from the narrow perspective of investment its announcement of a new, $3 billion share buyback scheme means that the FTSE 100 cash return bonanza continues,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“Dividends, takeovers and buybacks...
30 July 2024
FTSE hit by Diageo share slump as drinks giant sees problems grow and Greggs bucks negative retail trend with solid growth“A catastrophic session from Diageo served to drag down the FTSE 100 index, which was also hit by Glencore’s weak production update,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“ BP’s strategy of pre-releasing bad news seems to have worked as that lowered expectations in the run-up to its results. The shares bounced back after second quarter...
16 July 2024
Are UK equities ready for a return to favour?From the point of view of those investors with exposure to the UK equity market, the bad news is that aggregate consensus forecasts for the members of the FTSE 100 index fell by 4% in the first six months of this year, to £247 billion from £258 billion.
The good news is that £247 billion figure is still a record high, and it therefore helps to...
8 July 2024
US equities look to second-quarter earnings for next leg up“The second-quarter results season is upon us and investors will be looking for upbeat commentary, positive earnings surprises and optimistic outlooks for the second half of the year to help the headline American stock market indices set new all-time highs,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“Such good news may be needed, however...
5 July 2024
What will markets expect from the new UK government?Markets were already braced for a Labour win, hence why the pound and gilt yields barely moved on the election result.
Financial markets usually give their quickest and most visceral judgements on a country’s economic and political stability (or otherwise) via its currency and the rate of interest at which they charge it to borrow through the bond...
3 July 2024
Takeovers and buybacks supplement flatlining dividend forecastsAfter flirting with a new all-time high in May, the FTSE 100 is now paddling sideways, as it awaits both the result of July’s general election and, perhaps more importantly, the Bank of England’s first interest rate cut. Surprise cuts from Sweden and Switzerland, and an early move from the European Central Bank, are helping to set the tone but...
26 June 2024
AO World sets about delivering the goods (more profitably)With its leading market share in major domestic appliances, AO World’s problem has never been delivering the goods, but doing so in a profitable way, and as a result the latest set of full-year results represents a major step forward.
The shares are still miles below 2014’s flotation price of 285p, let alone 2021’s pandemic peak north of 400p but...
28 May 2024
How UK equities have responded to past general electionsGiven the rate at which prime ministers (and chancellors) seem to come and go, investors may be rightly inclined to avoid second-guessing the result of the next general election, which is now set for Thursday 4 July.
The lack of available cash in the government’s kitty, the Conservatives’ occasionally frayed relationship with ‘business’ and the...
9 May 2024
Key reasons why the FTSE 100 is back in favour with investorsThe FTSE 100 may feel friendless, given the ongoing concerns about firms delisting from the UK to join other exchanges, the lack of new flotations and cries for fresh initiatives to boost interest. But the UK equity market’s premier index is setting new all-time highs all the same, perhaps to adage that, ‘you can have good news and cheap stocks...
29 April 2024
Dividend forecasts for 2024 flounder even as FTSE 100 offers enticing cash yieldHaving hit new record highs in 2024, the FTSE 100 might have wider appeal to investors, including accumulators of income, given a prospective dividend yield of 3.8% for 2024 (and 4.1% for 2025), especially as those figures exceed the prevailing rate of inflation.
Some investors may feel those dividend yields stack up relatively well compared to the...
30 January 2024
Analysts more bullish than ever on UK stocks in 2024As we enter 2024, 59% of all analysts’ recommendations are buys and just 8% are sells for constituents of the FTSE 100, the highest and lowest scores over the past ten years, respectively. For the FTSE 350 index 62% of all recommendations are positive ratings and just 7% negative ones, again the highest and lowest percentages since 2015.
Momentum...
11 January 2024
Dividend forecasts sag alongside profit estimates for 2023 and 2024The FTSE 100 continues to paddle sideways. The UK’s leading index is no higher than twelve months ago or indeed six years ago, a picture that pales next to the growth and momentum driven US indices, such as the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. Yet the FTSE 100 could still appeal to patient accumulators of income, given a forecast dividend yield of 3.9% for...
10 January 2024
What could the next general election mean for UK equities?Given the rate at which prime ministers (and chancellors) seem to come and go, investors may be rightly inclined to avoid second-guessing the result of the next general election, which could be set for this autumn judging by recent comments from the country’s current leader, Rishi Sunak.
The lack of available cash in the government’s kitty, the...
4 January 2024
FTSE 100 boardrooms show more stability than football club dressing rooms in 2023FTSE 100 chief executives and football club managers are both in the results business, one group in terms of profits and share prices and the other in terms of points and league positions, but in 2023 it looks like shareholders and boardrooms showed more patience than football club executives and supporters, even if headline stock market indices...
17 November 2023
Price increases offset falling volumes as Imperial Brands delivers dividend growthThe shares may not be doing much in response to Imperial Brands’ full-year results, but the figures contain a lot that is good news if you are an income investor (less so if you are an ethical investor). Higher prices are offsetting the relentless decline in cigarette volumes, cash flow is strong and the dividend is up.
The fat dividend yield and...
9 November 2023
Do markets need to care about who the next US President could be?It is a year to the sixtieth US Presidential Election, on 5 November 2024, and although financial markets are more concerned right now about US Federal Reserve policy, inflation and events in the Middle East, they will soon start to take a keener interest in the race to the White House.
A repeat of 2020’s Biden-Trump contest is on the cards...
3 November 2023
Big banks remain unloved after third-quarter reporting seasonAlthough HSBC is ending the FTSE 100 megabanks’ third-quarter results season with a flourish in the form of its third share buyback of the year, lukewarm figures or cautious outlooks on lending margins (or both) from Standard Chartered, NatWest, Barclays and Lloyds mean the big lenders remain unloved,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
...
13 October 2023
Why markets will be hoping the latest Middle Eastern conflict is not a replay of the 1970sThere are so many more important things to consider than financial markets when a war breaks out, but central bankers, economists and investors could be forgiven for keeping an eye on the oil price in particular, while they hope for a speedy and peaceful resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
There have been...
6 October 2023
Dividend growth still expected but forecasts for 2023 and 2024 slip lowerAt the time of writing, markets expect the Bank of England base rate to peak at 5.50%, with the first cut expected in the second half of 2024, although the two-year gilt yield of 4.87% suggests the bond market is far from sure that the Monetary Policy Committee has the courage of its convictions.
Nevertheless, investors look to cash or sovereign...
6 October 2023
FTSE 100 readies for its fortieth birthday with twenty-six founder members still in the indexThe FTSE 100 launched on 3 January 1984, to replace the FT-30, and the stock market benchmark’s make up has changed a lot since then. With one more quarterly reshuffle to come before its fortieth birthday, just fourteen founder members are still in the index and still using the very same name, while twelve more are still part of UK plc’s corporate...
27 September 2023
AG Barr gets a boost from new and old brands alikeScotland’s AG Barr may be best known for its iconic Irn-Bru drink, but the FTSE 250 firm continues to develop its product range and its first-half results show the benefits, as sales of mixers, juices, energy drinks and oat milk are all contributing to higher sales and profits.
Management is sanctioning a hike in the dividend, too, as AG Barr took...
7 September 2023
Is it worth paying an arm and a leg for ARM?The price range set by Softbank and its army of bankers and advisers for ARM of $47 to $51 a share implies a total market capitalisation for the business of $47 billion to $51 billion (since it has a billion shares in issue) with its $2 billion net cash pile on top. That gives an enterprise value (EV), or total value for the business of $49 billion...
10 August 2023
Bellway shares refuse to crumble despite weak outlookReservation rates are down sharply, the order book is also down sharply, prices are no longer going up and completions are expected to go down in the coming year, but shares in Bellway are holding firm despite the gloomy outlook statement that accompanies the housebuilder’s latest trading update.
Analysts are cutting their profit forecasts for the...
13 July 2023
Dividend growth still expected in 2023 despite stalling profit forecastsAfter the index’s brief flirtation with the 8,000 mark, the FTSE 100 is trading no higher than it did in summer 2017. A forecast yield of 4.1% for 2023 (and 4.4% for 2024) offers some compensation, although these figures are no longer as eye-catching as they once were, when inflation was low and interest rates anchored at all-time lows of 0.1% for...
22 June 2023
Associated British Foods third-quarter trading updateAfter a 55% surge from their autumn lows, shares in Associated British Foods, the owner of Primark, British Sugar, Twinings and Ovaltine, are up by a sixth over the last year.
The shares rally has been fuelled by a rally in the pound, a drop in oil and gas prices (to the potential benefit of consumer spending) and a marked fall in sea freight costs...
16 June 2023
Why the US deficit is a taxing issue for the Federal ReserveThe Federal Open Markets Committee continues to argue that it is ‘data dependent’ when it comes to setting monetary policy. The latest round of inflation figures is therefore likely to be very influential but two equally important numbers that get less attention than they should are US tax receipts and the Federal deficit – not least because the...
9 June 2023
Central bank policy decisions in the USA, EU and JapanIt is one of those weeks when central banks take centre stage, because the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are all scheduled to make their latest policy decisions. The BoJ may be pleased to see inflation, after flirting with deflation for most of the last three decades, and seems in little rush to curb an...
2 June 2023
Prudential announces FTSE 100’s 26th CFO change in 2023Whatever lay behind the sudden dismissal of Prudential’s chief financial officer James Turner, a breach of conduct rules is an unusual reason for someone to leave such a position, even in a year when no fewer than 26 changes in CFO have already been announced by FTSE 100 firms.
Shareholder pressure on the board after poor operational or share...
23 May 2023
Have global stock markets reached peak USA?Softbank’s decision to list ARM on the New York Stock Exchange, rather than its London equivalent, and a seemingly growing queue of FTSE 100 firms that desire to switch their listing Stateside, is causing much angst and prompting the London Stock Exchange to ease its rules for new market entrants.
This raises two issues. The first is investor...
11 May 2023
Is the NASDAQ in a new bull market or stuck in the old bear one?It was the worst-performing major equity index in 2022 and, so far, it has been the best in 2023, so investors may well be tempted to think that the NASDAQ, and technology stocks more generally, are back in business, especially after the meaty rally in stocks such as Meta Platforms and Microsoft following their first-quarter results.
In addition...
27 April 2023
Why big tech needs to deliver if US indices are to maintain their momentumAmerica’s S&P 500 has added $2.4 trillion in market capitalisation so far in 2023 and just six stocks – Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google’s parent Alphabet and Microsoft has provided $1.6 trillion of that gain between them, or two-thirds of the total.
After a lukewarm set of figures from Netflix last week, and a sharp year-on-year...
27 April 2023
FTSE 100 dividend forecasts slide amid uncertain climateAfter the index’s spring stumble, the FTSE 100 is now expected to yield 4.2% in 2022, with the index’s total dividend pay-out expected to come in at £76.4 billion, before going on to reach £84.8 billion in 2023, excluding special dividends.
Estimates seeped lower from the summer and the first round of full-year results (for those firms with a...
20 April 2023
Hunting shares move higher as US orders flood inStrong order intake, notably in the USA, higher-than-expected first quarter profits and the prospect of improved cash generation later in the year are all helping to boost shares in energy services and equipment expert Hunting. Oil and gas prices may be some way below the highs of 2022, but a renewed focus on supply and security is still leading to...
23 February 2023
Dull production outlook takes some of the shine off copper producer AntofagastaUsually, a firm copper price would be a good sign for both the global economy and the share price of FTSE 100 member Antofagasta, but the Chilean producer’s shares are looking a little dull after its full-year results for 2022.
This may be down to ongoing fears that a recession is coming, although Antofagasta has its own specific issues with which...
16 February 2023
The Super Bowl Rule: Will Chiefs’ win mean US stocks turn choppy?Gamblers who sided with the two-point favourite Philadelphia will have lost their money as the Eagles lost the fifty-seventh Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs and their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is now a two-time winner and Most Valuable Player in the NFL’s biggest game. But it’s not just punters who may be a little disappointed, at least if...
10 February 2023
BP increases spending on oil and gas and renewablesWhile the profits, dividend, buybacks and debt reductions will grab a lot of the headlines, perhaps the most interesting number in BP’s full-year results statement is capital expenditure, because the firm is nudging up its spending plans on both renewables and oil and gas.
The increase in drilling and exploration work may be an acknowledgement...
26 January 2023
EasyJet heads back toward cruising altitudeA lower loss than a year ago, increased passenger numbers and revenues per customer and guidance for higher-than-expected profits for the full year all suggest that easyJet is finally emerging from three, storm-filled years.
If chief executive Johan Lundgren’s profit forecast proves accurate, easyJet will be in the black on an annual basis for the...
20 January 2023
Ocado Retail faces yet another year in loss as lockdown boom fades“Another year, another loss and another trading deficit is on the cards for 2023 from Ocado Retail food delivery joint-venture between Ocado and Marks & Spencer, even if the business’ new boss, Hannah Gibson, continues to put a positive spin on it by targeting positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA, or...
12 January 2023
FTSE 100 dividends forecast to hit new record in 2023 but slowing profit growth and recession pose a threatAfter the index’s autumn rally and cuts to analysts’ dividend forecasts, the FTSE 100 is now expected to yield 3.8% in 2022. The index’s total dividend pay-out is expected to reach £79.1 billion in 2022, compared to £78.5 billion in 2021, excluding special dividends.
Total payments peaked at £85.2 billion in 2018 and 2022 is struggling to reach...
5 January 2023
Apple loses a trillion dollars of market cap in a yearSuper-spy Austin Power’s nemesis, Dr. Evil, used to get his millions, billions and trillions mixed up when he tried to hold the world to ransom, much to the confusion of his partners in crime, but shareholders in Apple may not be laughing after seeing the stock shed $1 trillion in market cap, or one-third of its value, over the past twelve months.
...
20 December 2022
Five key themes that shaped portfolios’ investment returns in 2022Portfolio builders – not to mention our economies, central bankers and politicians – have become accustomed to an era of cheap energy, food, goods and labour, but that cosy environment came under duress in 2022 and as a result volatility picked up and the going got a lot tougher for investors, especially if they followed a classic 60% equity, 40%...
16 December 2022
Micron first-quarter resultsSilicon chips are a good guide to global economic health owing to their ubiquity – they are everywhere, from smart phones to laptops, car to industrial robots and servers to smart meters and global sales are expected to top $600 billion in 2023, to set a second consecutive all-time high.
However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, formed...
9 December 2022
UK unemployment, wage growth and inflation figuresThe search for the peak in inflation goes on, while workers continue to hope (and strike) for pay increases which protect the purchasing power of their cash. Central bankers will also be on the alert, as they clearly fear a 1970s-style wage spiral but will also be wary of any turn in the jobs market. Job vacancies are starting to shrink (on both...
23 November 2022
Telecom Plus sends out all the right signals with first-half resultsThe failure of energy suppliers such as bulb, ampower, igloo, Hub Energy and many, many more has caused great distress to many householders, but a lot of them have been able to get help from Utility Warehouse, whose parent is Telecom Plus, says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
As a result, the FTSE 250 firm is adding customers at a record...
16 November 2022
How to measure the success (or otherwise) of the Autumn StatementChancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt could be forgiven for viewing the ultimate success or failure of the fiscal policies outlined in the Autumn Statement in terms of votes, as his political career rests upon the ballot box, but financial markets will look toward gilt yields and sterling and consumers and voters will look toward inflation and...
3 November 2022
BP unveils fourth share buyback of 2022 as tax debate rages onThe debate over the rights and wrongs of BP’s bumper profits will run and run, but from the narrow perspective of investment the oil major’s announcement of its fourth share buyback scheme in 2022 means the FTSE 100’s members are on track to return record amounts of cash to their shareholders this year.
After Shell’s $4 billion announcement last...
13 October 2022
FTSE 100 set for record cash returns to investors but dividend forecasts stallThe FTSE 100 is now expected to yield 4.1% in 2022, as both the headline index and analysts’ dividend forecasts struggle to make any notable progress. The index’s total dividend pay-out is expected to reach £81.5 billion in 2022, compared to £78.5 billion in 2021, excluding special dividends.
Total payments peaked at £85.2 billion in 2018 and 2022...
13 October 2022
Drop in reservations rocks Barratt’s share price alongside grim economic backdropIf government ministers needed any evidence of how policy missteps can affect not just the financial markets but the real economy, then Barratt Developments’ first quarter results statement provided it in spades.
The average weekly rate of private reservations for new houses at its active sales outlets has fallen to 0.55 in the first three months...
29 September 2022
Another boo-boo from Boohoo as retailer warns on profits againIncreased costs, higher product returns and ongoing investment in warehousing and distribution meant that Boohoo issued profit warnings in December and May and lower-than-expected sales have now added to the tale of woe and forced the online retailer to issue another trading alert, this time alongside its first-half results.
Analysts had already...
16 September 2022
'Soggy' chip demand weighs on Renishaw despite profit and dividend boostIts wide spread of business, in terms of its customer industries and geographic markets, mean that precision instrument maker Renishaw is a pretty fair proxy for the global economy. Economists and stock market investors alike may therefore be concerned to hear the Gloucestershire firm flag how its new financial year is seeing weakness in orders in...
