EXTRA: Shares of BHP and Anglo American chart different courses

BHP Group Ltd and Anglo American PLC on Tuesday encountered mixed fortunes following their operational updates.

Shares in BHP closed down 2.3% to 3,050.00 pence in London on Tuesday and were down 0.4% to ZAR673.05 in Johannesburg after posting disappointing copper production in the first quarter, but kept its annual copper guidance for the 2027 financial year unchanged. In Sydney, shares closed down 1.6% to AUD 59.50 on Thursday.

But Anglo American shares finished up 1.7% to 3,949.57p in London, reflecting its reaffirmation of annual guidance and progress on the conclusion of the proposed merger with Teck Resources Ltd. In Johannesburg, they rose 1.6% to ZAR861.45.

In its latest operational review, BHP reported on Tuesday that total copper production declined 19% to 400,700 tonnes in the three months that ended September 30 from 493,600 tonnes in the same quarter a year earlier, falling short of expectations.

The Melbourne, Australia-based diversified miner blamed planned grade declines and scheduled maintenance, alongside temporary disruptions from severe weather in Chile and stops for safety and the conveyor failure at Carrapateena mines in south Australia for lower copper output.

BHP this month averted a strike that would have disrupted production at the world's largest copper mine, Escondida mine, in northern Chile. It confirmed on Tuesday that it had signed a new collective agreement with mine supervisors, with the wage deal coming into effect on Wednesday last week. The miner expects production from Escondida to range between 1.0 million tonnes and 1.1 million for financial, compared to 1.26 million tonnes a year before.

Panmure Liberum analyst Duncan Hay said BHP misses copper estimates by 6% compared to consensus forecast. The investment bank kept its rating for BHP at a 'hold', with the share price target unchanged at 2,970p.

Total iron ore production increased 3.7% to 66.5 million tonnes from 64.1 million tonnes over the same period, BHP said.

On a 100% basis, iron ore production at Western Australia Iron Ore, or WAIO, in Australia rose 2% in the first quarter to 71.9 million tonnes. WAIO iron ore production was just short of consensus of 72.9 million tonnes, Hay said. BHP holds an 85% interest in WAIO.

Jefferies said BHP reported a weaker quarter operationally. It has a 'hold' recommendation on BHP, with a share price target of 3,350p.

Anglo American also cited severe weather and maintenance for lower copper production.

For the nine months that ended September 30, the London-based diversified miner said on Tuesday copper production fell 1.3% to 519,000 tonnes from 526,000 tonnes a year earlier. Copper output for the third quarter declined 4.9% to 175,000 tonnes from 184,000 tonnes.

Anglo American said record snowfall and related unplanned maintenance later in the third quarter hurt copper production in Chile, while strong by-product credits and cost performance saw Copper Peru unit cost guidance improve to 50 cents per pound, from 65 cents previously.

For nine months, premium iron ore production was 44.4 million tonnes, down 2.8% from 45.7 million. Premium iron ore output for the third quarter dropped 3.5% to 13.8 million tonnes from 14.3 million.

Earlier in the session on Tuesday, Anglo American topped the FTSE 100 as the company confirmed its merger with Teck is moving closer to fruition as it stuck with 2026 production guidance, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said.

BHP and Anglo American stuck to their respective annual guidance.

Anglo American's annual copper production guidance is between 700,000 tonnes and 760,000 tonnes in 2026, from 695,000 tonnes in 2025. Premium iron ore guidance also remains unchanged at between 55 million tonnes and 59 million tonnes in 2026, from 60.8 million tonnes in 2025.

Investors cheered after Anglo American said its proposed merger with Teck continues to progress and integration planning is now at an advanced stage. Anglo has said it expects the deal, first announced in September last year, to be concluded between September this year to March next year.

"We continue to engage constructively with China's anti-trust regulator, with this being the final outstanding regulatory milestone required for completion," Wanblad said, noting that the deal completion timing by March 2027 remains unchanged.

Anglo American is in the process of selling its steelmaking coal, nickel and diamond businesses as part of its simplification strategy aimed at concentrating on copper, iron ore and manganese.

BHP expects full-year copper production for financial 2027 between 1.7 million tonnes and 1.8 million tonnes, from 1.95 million tonnes a prior year, and iron ore is targeted between 260 million tonnes to 272 million tonnes, from 264.7 million.

On Tuesday, BHP Chief Executive Officer Brandon Craig cautioned that global markets remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, and elevated energy and freight costs continuing to create headwinds across the mining industry.

At the same time, demand for commodities remains "resilient", supported by continued industrialisation and urbanisation in China and India, alongside unprecedented investment in data centres and enabling infrastructure globally, which is reinforcing the long-term outlook for copper, Craig said.

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