IG Group shares slide as cuts revenue outlook after weak third quarter

IG Group Holdings PLC lowered full-year revenue guidance after a tough third quarter, reflecting lower over-the-counter business.

In response, shares in the London-based online trading platform plummeted 25% to 953.00 pence each in London on Friday morning.

In a trading statement, IG said it now expects total revenue growth to be in a mid-single-digit per cent range year-on-year in 2026.

According to company compiled consensus, analysts forecast revenue of £1.26 billion in 2026 which would have been up 12% from 2025's £ £1.12 billion.

In July, IG said it expects to report at least 10% organic total revenue compound annual revenue growth over the medium term.

Chief Executive Breon Corcoran said: "Lower Q3 revenue reflected reduced OTC revenue retention in less supportive market conditions, and I remain confident in meeting our medium-term guidance."

The FTSE 100 listing said third quarter revenue is expected to be £240 million, down 14% year-on-year, reflecting lower over-the-counter revenue retention. Net trading revenue is forecast of £210 million, down 16% from £249.5 million.

The firm reported total revenue for the first six months of 2026 of £642.8 million up 18% from £545.2 million the year prior.

IG's OTC business includes areas such as contracts for difference, spread betting, options and derivatives.

Within OTC derivatives, revenue retention in the quarter was around 70%, below the around 80% averaged since the introduction of market-making optimisation measures in the second half of 2025 to the end of the third quarter 2026.

IG said it remains confident that these measures will structurally increase OTC revenue retention over the medium to long term, albeit with greater expected short-term variability.

IG said the underlying business remains strong.

While third quarter OTC net trading revenue of £155 million was around 18% lower year-on-year, OTC customer income increased by around 8%.

Underdog traded strongly, IG said, with third quarter net revenue doubling year-on-year to USD105 million, ahead of the seasonally important fourth quarter, which accounted for more than a third of Underdog's revenue in 2025.

The USD1.3 billion acquisition of US-based daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator Underdog was announced in July.

In 2026, IG expects non-recurring costs relating to the redomicile to Jersey and the restructuring announced in July to be £30 million, of which £16.4 million was reported in the first half.

Excluding these and expenses related to the acquisition of Underdog, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin for 2026 is expected to be in the low-40s per cent range compared to 47.3% in 2025.

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