Daily market update: Trainline, Berkeley

The stakes have been ratcheted up ahead of US inflation data later after a renewed surge in oil prices and government bond yields.

Signs that crude prices and bond yields have at least stabilised for the time being allowed for a calmer start to proceedings on Friday after the fear factor ramped up on Thursday. The FTSE 100 was just about in positive territory and the DAX and CAC 40 solidly higher.

It’s been a tricky few days for global equities. Up until now fixed income had largely borne the brunt of the growing concern about the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets.

Supported by solid earnings, stocks had largely been resilient despite the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. However, that resilience is being eroded thanks to a growing perception that diplomatic progress between the Tehran and Washington is a no-go in the short term.

The European Central Bank accompanying a widely expected increase in interest rates with a warning that the current war-related energy shock will fuel sustained inflation put markets on alert for future hikes.

In London there were some cautious gains for some of the names caught up in the recent volatility as travel and tourism and aviation-linked names nudged higher. Banks were also in demand as rates look set to stay higher for longer.

Data and software groups were under some pressure as the AI disruption fears which have blighted this sector for large parts of 2026 returned to the fore.

Trainline

Having been derailed last month by news of a probe by the competition authorities, Trainline shares got back on track following its latest trading update.

Today’s statement confirmed the company is engaging with the regulator and also confirmed full-year guidance. The unveiling of a new share buyback is a display of confidence in its prospects and may reassure some investors that the worst-case scenario from this regulatory intervention won’t come to pass.

The main negative was that ticket sales stalled in August which Trainline blamed on heat waves, TfL strikes and the government freeze on fares. The company is at a fork in the tracks as CEO Jody Ford prepares to step down at the end of this month to be replaced by Ian Brown.

Trainline is under scrutiny for ‘drip pricing’ where a lower headline price is advertised but mandatory fees are dripped like water from a leaky tap into the price you pay at checkout. Specifically, Trainline’s practice of not showing its booking fees up top has created concern.

There are twin-track risks around the issue – one is that Trainline might be forced to pay compensation or a punishing fine and two that if it’s forced to display these fees at the outset it might hit transaction values.

Berkeley

Housebuilder Berkeley has a strong reputation, largely earned under its late boss Tony Pidgley, for being very savvy in its calling of the ups and downs of the property market, so the company’s continuing caution feels instructive.

Berkeley already announced plans to pare back production by 25% earlier this year and it still sees the market as quiet thanks to domestic uncertainty in the run-up to next month’s Budget and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

One thing Berkeley can be relied on to deliver is clear guidance and the company is sticking with its long-term profit target and shareholder returns policy. A healthy cash pile provides a buffer to ride out the current difficult market conditions.

Some would argue the housebuilding sector hasn’t exactly been short of government support in recent times but that doesn’t stop Berkeley from pushing for changes to stamp duty in order to unlock demand.