Daily market update: Trump, oil, Persimmon, Domino’s, Edinburgh Worldwide

The market is in highly speculative mode thanks to the absence of any certainty about what the next few days, let alone weeks will look like.

In these circumstances, Donald Trump’s comments about the Iran war ending soon have been seized upon like water offered to someone who’s just consumed a full bag of salty crisps.

The levels of volatility in energy markets have been extreme even by their own turbulent standards. In the space of 24 hours the Brent crude benchmark traded as high as $117 per barrel and as low as $88 and has settled around the $90 mark.

This downward swing in oil helped US stocks stage an impressive comeback on Monday to trade in positive territory – a trend which continued in Asia and is now being repeated in Europe.

Plenty of names on the FTSE 100 were bouncing back, including banks, housebuilders and stocks with links to the travel sector. The exception to the sea of green were BP and Shell and defence firm BAE Systems. 

This is unlikely to be the last word in the current crisis and investors will be watching closely to see if the recovery can be sustained, something which is likely dependent on a de-escalation in the Middle East. All eyes are likely to be on the G7 and whether it will release emergency stockpiles of oil to help calm the markets further.

Persimmon

Chiming with an improved market mood, Persimmon’s full-year results have given shareholders reasons to celebrate.

A double-digit increase in profit is a solid outcome given the backdrop and investors will be encouraged to see average selling prices, completions and margins all tick higher.

This is a better outcome than several of Persimmon’s peer group, and the start to 2026 has been encouraging with sales rates accelerating strongly since the beginning of the year.

A slight pall is cast over the numbers and outlook by events in the Middle East. At this point it is hard to quantify what the impact might be, but one thing is certain, it won’t be a positive one.

Build costs are likely to go up, even if only temporarily, and wider inflationary pressures have likely pushed the interest rate cuts craved by housebuilders off the agenda for now.

Persimmon makes much of the self-help measures which laid the foundations for last year’s robust performance. With little aid coming from outside, it will need plenty of the same to help sustain the business in the months ahead.

Domino’s Pizza

Domino’s Pizza has served up a half-baked set of results, with profits in reverse and barely any like-for-like sales growth. It’s no wonder the group is pivoting to chicken as a potential second business line, as the core operations aren’t hitting the spot.

These results signal a business in a state of flux. Consumer tastes are changing, both in terms of what they eat and portion size. A greasy slice of pizza no longer cuts the mustard for health-conscious individuals, so Domino’s is having to adapt to survive.

On the face of it, Domino’s should be doing incredibly well. It has millions of customers who order more than four times a year on average. The brand is well known, it has an efficient delivery service, and the business makes decent money. What’s troubling is the loss of momentum in recent years. It is running hard just to stand still.

Management strikes an optimistic tone, but a 35% decline in the share price over the past 12 months shows that investors aren’t happy. The stock saw a small jump on the latest numbers as there were nuggets of good news, but overall Domino’s still isn’t at the point where the market is fully convinced it has a much brighter future.

Edinburgh Worldwide / Saba

Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell, comments:

Edinburgh Worldwide is royally fed up with meddling from activist investor Saba and has now gone for the nuclear option – offering a deal for all shareholders to cash out at close to fair value. If all investors take up the offer, the investment trust would sell its holdings, return the money and potentially call it a day.

A lesson from the past few years is that nothing is straightforward when it comes to activists and investment trusts. This is Edinburgh’s third attempt at fighting off Saba, and there is no guarantee it will go smoothly.

For one, Edinburgh already trades above the value of its assets so shareholders might be less willing to tender their shares for ‘close to NAV’ and in a two-pronged manner.

Fifteen percent of the cash payout will be deferred until Edinburgh has sold its stake in SpaceX. The investment trust looks to be banking on Elon Musk’s rockets-to-satellite business floating on the stock market in the next 12 months and enjoying a big valuation uplift.

It’s sensible for the trust to wait to see if this happens than sell the stake now privately, but it means the tender offer could be a prolonged process.

Certain shareholders might want to stay invested in the vehicle, seeing it as a good method of accessing a range of interesting small and mid-cap companies. They might be happy to sell for a decent premium if one was offered, such as the level you might expect from a takeover situation, but many shareholders might be reluctant to give up potential future returns without a better incentive.

It’s impossible to predict what Saba will do, but it has form in being difficult and it seems unlikely it will accept the offer and walk away.