Micron hits $1 trillion on AI wave ahead of crunch quarterly earnings
The share price of memory chip play Micron Technology has enjoyed an astonishing run heading into its upcoming quarterly results on 24 June helping it to a $1 trillion market valuation for the first time.
The most recent catalyst was research published by investment bank UBS which raised the price target on the stock from $535 to $1,625.
AI-related demand for its DRAM (working memory) and NAND (long-term flash storage) chips has surged, driving sales and profits to fresh highs. The company has refined its focus on this market – exiting consumer electronics to focus on serving customers in the data centre space and the AI infrastructure hyperscalers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon.
DRAM has long been known as a deeply cyclical market, something Micron’s own track record illustrates well. Profits surged in 2000, 2005-06, 2010, 2013-15 and 2017-19, but the company also slipped into losses in 2001-03, 2007-08, 2012 and 2016, while Covid-19 disrupted both operations and financial performance in 2020.
The case now being made is that this boom-and-bust era may finally be fading, helped by the proliferation of AI, the long lead times required to build new multi-billion-dollar fabrication plants, and the reality that Moore’s law is no longer delivering the same gains, if any. That means chipmakers can no longer lift capacity simply by producing more chips per silicon wafer at existing sites.
Industry consolidation has also left just three major DRAM producers in the market today: Micron, South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Micron’s HBM3E product has given it an advantage versus its Korean rivals because it consumes less power which is an important advantage for energy-constrained data centres.
Investors will be monitoring the third-quarter numbers closely to see if the company can achieve its ambitious guidance to hit gross margins above 80%. Given the supply constraints in this market there will be a lot of focus on the multi-year agreements the company has running into 2027 and 2028.
The company also continues to expand its US footprint with expansions in New York and Virginia, and investors may be looking for an update on this rollout. Management may also address increasing clamour for a stock split as the share price ticks towards four figures.
