7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter two: USAIt is hard to believe but President Donald J. Trump will be almost half way through his first term in office by November 2018, when he will face a test that may give a clue as to whether this will be his only four-year stint in the White House.
Americans in 36 states and three territories will be voting for their State Governors. More pertinently...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter three: JapanWith the Nikkei 225 and Topix stock benchmarks touching twenty-year peaks, the yen rising against the dollar and the economy putting together its best streak of quarterly GDP increases for a decade investors could be forgiven that everything in the Japanese garden is rosy.
The Nikkei 225 ended 2017 with a powerful run, aided and abetted by Prime...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter four: AsiaIt is hard to believe that the 19th Communist Party Congress in China, the fall and arrest of a President in Seoul and a hung Parliament in New Zealand could be so comprehensively overshadowed, but North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests managed precisely that in 2017.
The foreign policy of Kim Jong-un will remain front of mind for anyone with...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter five: Western EuropeWhile by no means conclusive in laying to rest the threat posed by anti-EU parties, the Dutch, French and German elections of 2017 are encouraging leaders in Paris, Brussels and Berlin to press ahead with greater political and economic integration, rather than loosen existing ties. Even as the Brexit negotiations grind slowly on, the next big test...
7 December 2017
World Investment Outlook - Chapter six: Emerging MarketsElections in Mexico and Brazil will help to set the tone in Latin America in 2018, especially if those countries follow Argentina’s political drift to the right and its embrace of the market-friendly policies of President Mauricio Macri.
Politics also remains centre-stage in Eastern Europe, even if the result of March’s Presidential Election in...
7 December 2017
Ladbrokes Coral/GVC, DS Smith and Legal & General“Blue-chips edged higher as confusion over the future direction of Brexit negotiations continues to weigh on sentiment,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Investors welcomed a possible takeover of Ladbrokes Coral by GVC. The two firms have held talks before but the latest move has been given added impetus by the Government review on...
6 December 2017
Shaftesbury and Hammerson swoops show faith in British commercial property sector“ Shaftesbury’s fund raising so it can acquire one building in Soho and finance the long-term leasehold of another, coupled with Hammerson’s all-share offer for shopping centre-owner Intu, shows that the real estate companies themselves believe there is value to be had in British commercial property, even if investors do not,” says Russ Mould, AJ...
6 December 2017
Saga, Johnston Press and Stagecoach“The FTSE100 opened in negative territory as the turmoil surrounding ongoing Brexit negotiations showed little sign of abating. Overseas markets were also weaker overnight as geopolitical and economic growth concerns continued to unsettle investors,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Saga’s shares plunged after it issued a profits...
5 December 2017
Character, IG Group and Victrex“The FTSE100 confounded forecasts and opened on the front foot after UK Prime Minister Theresa May returned from Brussels without clinching a deal with the European Union, as Irish border issues prevented a breakthrough towards trade talks. The failure prompted a fall in sterling but boosted blue-chip stocks as a drop in the currency increases the...
4 December 2017
National Express, Circassia and Galileo Resources“Blue-chips opened in positive territory ahead of UK Prime Minister Theresa May power lunch with European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, as Britain sets out its latest deal to enable trade talks to commence,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ National Express was an early riser after it completed two small acquisitions in...
1 December 2017
Beowulf Mining, Indivior and RM2 International“Blue-chips confounded forecasts and edged into positive territory at the start of December following on from a positive overnight session on Wall Street,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Beowulf Mining’s shares plummeted after an administrative board in Sweden decided that it would not recommend the award of an exploitation...
30 November 2017
Three quick tests to make sure the US stock market isn’t a turkeyA relentless series of new all-time highs in benchmark stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite mean that America’s financial markets continue to write nearly as many headlines as its President.
Buoyed by hopes for growth-stimulating tax reform and ongoing faith in the US Federal Reserve’s ability to provide...
30 November 2017
BAE Systems, Marston's and Aviva“The FTSE 100 extended yesterday's losses in early trading after the rally in global equities cooled somewhat following mixed performances on markets in the US and Asia overnight,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ BAE Systems topped the blue-chip board in early trading after it reached agreement deficit recovery plans with the...
29 November 2017
No-one wins as both CEO and chairman elect to leave the London Stock Exchange Group“Whether Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s comments on Tuesday about the London Stock Exchange Group’s (LSEG) succession plans had any impact or not, this messy situation has been resolved in one way by the decision of chief executive Xavier Rolet to step down immediately and chairman Donald Brydon’s choice not to seek re-election in 2019,”...
29 November 2017
Findel, Britvic and Imperial Brands“Blue-chips surrendered some of yesterday's gains as traders mulled news that an agreement may have been reached over the Brexit divorce bill, potentially leading the way to future trade talks with the EU,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Home shopping group Findel’s shares jumped following an increase in interim revenues and a good...
28 November 2017
Ocado, Cranswick and BCA Marketplace“Blue-chips opened on the front foot despite weakness in overseas markets and ahead of the latest house price data from Nationwide,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Online grocery group Ocado’s shares surged after it agreed to partner with Groupe Casino in France. The transaction is expected to be earnings neutral in 2018 with the...
27 November 2017
Patisserie, Trakm8 and Cerillion“The FTSE100 opened the week in negative territory, taking its cue from markets in Asia while ongoing concerns over UK productivity, economic growth and Brexit continued to weigh on sentiment,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Handmade cake group Patisserie was one of the top risers on AIM after strong full year results. The group...
24 November 2017
James Fisher, IndigoVision and Fuller's“The FTSE100 slipped into negative territory on Black Friday after a positive start for markets in Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Marine services group James Fisher and Sons was the FTSE250’s biggest faller in early trading. The group has maintained its full year outlook and revenues for the first 10 months are 7% up on a...
23 November 2017
Centrica joins the FTSE 100’s “Down More Than 10% In A Day club” – which is rapidly becoming less exclusive“A profit warning amid falling customer numbers and price pressure means that shares in Centrica are showing a double-digit fall in early trade, amid worries over the long-term sustainability of the dividend.
“If the shares stay down at those levels the owner of British Gas will become the ninth current FTSE 100 member firm to have suffered a drop...
23 November 2017
Centrica, Mitchells & Butlers and Majestic Wine“The FTSE100 opened in negative territory weighed down by a cut in UK growth forecasts, volatile oil prices and weaker overnight trading on Wall Street and in Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“British Gas parent Centrica’s shares tumbled as it warned that adjusted earnings per share would be lower than market forecasts. The...
22 November 2017
Market movers post Budget – stocks, bonds & currencies Stocks“When Mr Hammond stood up the FTSE 100 was trading at 7,448. An hour later, when he had finished, it was almost exactly unchanged,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The only real movers look to have been the housebuilders – Barratt, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley sank to the bottom of the FTSE 100, with drops of between 1...
22 November 2017
Hammond’s hamstrung budget“The lack of any blockbuster Budget announcements for UK savers shows that Chancellor Hammond is hamstrung by a crippling combination of worsening growth forecasts, a weak Government and stalling Brexit negotiations," says Tom Selby, senior analyst at AJ Bell.
“There is a nod to younger voters with a new railcard to help 26 to 30 year olds with the...
22 November 2017
SSP provides investors with the full picnic“Better-than-expected full-year profits, a 50% increase in its dividend to 8.1p and a £100 million special dividend (worth around another 21p per share) mean that Upper Crust-owner SSP is providing investors with a feast of good news today and the shares are up strongly to a new all-time high as a result,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ...
22 November 2017
How to assess whether infrastructure funds can be a useful portfolio assetThe concrete word “infrastructure” is regularly bandied about in conversations that cover the more nebulous term “productivity,” as economists and analysts alike try to fathom why certain economies and workforces seem to be more efficient than others.
But building new facilities or upgrading old ones can be expensive and time-consuming, so from...
22 November 2017
Thomas Cook, Countryside and Finsbury Food“Blue-chips opened higher ahead of Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Budget as the global rally continues,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Thomas Cook’s shares tumbled despite an increase in first half revenues and profits following an increased demand for holidays. Cut-throat competition, especially for Spanish holidays, has depressed...
21 November 2017
easyJet, HomeServe and Kingfisher“Blue-chips edged lower despite an upbeat start on markets in Asia this morning, as traders maintained a cautious approach ahead of this week's Budget announcement,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Low-cost airline easyJet topped the FTSE100 board in early trading despite a 17.3% fall in headline pre-tax profits. easyJet delivered a...
20 November 2017
Diploma, William Hill and Bonmarche“The FTSE 100 opened on the back foot as a combination of mixed signals from overseas markets, political issues along with Brexit concerns hampered any major directional change,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Specialised technical products and services group Diploma was one of the biggest FTSE250 risers following strong full year...
17 November 2017
Carillion, Kier and Record“The FTSE100 surrendered yesterday's gains as Brexit negotiations and next week's Budget continued to weigh on sentiment,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Beleaguered contractor Carillion’s shares plummeted after another profit warning and it said it needed to defer the testing of its financial covenants or be in breach of them at the...
16 November 2017
How to ensure rotation can keep portfolios fertile rather than fallowHe may have been in charge of foreign policy under George I, but eighteenth-century politician Charles Townshend is best known as ‘Turnip’ Townshend for his work in the field of agriculture. He introduced the four-crop field rotation system, as wheat, barley, clover and turnips were grown annually in order in enclosure. The system helped keep the...
16 November 2017
British Land, Dart and Royal Mail“The FTSE100 edged higher in early trading following a positive showing from equity markets in Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Property developer British Land was an early blue-chip riser following a strong first half performance. The group’s strategic focus on creating outstanding environments is driving demand for space in...
15 November 2017
TalkTalk, Crest Nicholson and Card Factory“The FTSE100 opened lower as ongoing political issues and Brexit concerns continued to weigh on sentiment in London, while commodities prices were weaker overnight as were markets in the US and Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ TalkTalk shares tumbled after it posted a first half loss. TalkTalk continues to see strong demand...
14 November 2017
Will interest rates rise faster than we think?The weak pound and price of oil could force Mark Carney’s hand
“Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee will not welcome this week’s latest bout of weakness in sterling or renewed strength in the oil price, as both are complicating factors when it comes to inflation, which at 3% is still running...
14 November 2017
Vodafone, Bovis and FirstGroup“The FTSE100 confounded forecasts and opened in positive territory ahead of key inflation data and despite ongoing Brexit concerns, following the performances on markets in the US and Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Vodafone led the blue-chip board in early trading after it upgraded its earnings guidance following a strong...
13 November 2017
Fishing Republic, Taylor Wimpey and Ladbrokes Coral“Blue-chips made a positive start to the week despite ongoing political issues in the UK and mixed trading on markets in Asia this morning,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Fishing Republic’s shares plummeted after it warned it faced a full-year loss. The group has seen a dramatic change in its fortunes in the past few months as...
10 November 2017
Galliford Try, Vedanta and Gulfsands Petroleum“The FTSE100 opened in negative territory following falls in US markets overnight as concerns over the level of global economic growth and ongoing political issues closer to home continued to weigh on sentiment,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Construction and housebuilding group Galliford Try was one of the biggest FTSE250 risers...
9 November 2017
Why investors need to keep an eye on this most taxing of issuesThe kerfuffle caused by the Paradise Papers is unlikely to die down for some time as it shines a light on corporate behaviour that is not entirely flattering.
This column will not go into the ins and outs of the individual cases mentioned for fear of both entering a legal minefield and becoming embroiled in a debate which can be as much about...
9 November 2017
Sainsbury’s, Lookers and AstraZeneca“The FTSE100 edged down in early trading as Brexit talks between the UK and the European Union resume. Wall Street was held back by concerns President Trump's tax reforms could be delayed,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Supermarket giant Sainsbury’s was one of the biggest blue-chip fallers in early trading after wage inflation hit...
8 November 2017
Five things that M&S needs to do better (even if Steve Rowe is starting to get it right)“Stock markets can be terribly impatient things and the indifferent response given to Marks & Spencer’s interim results is a good example of this. The shares are down even though there are signs of improving momentum in the Clothing & Home operation and the plans outlined by Steve Rowe as part of the ‘next phase’ of his turnaround plan make sense –...
8 November 2017
Marks & Spencer, JD Wetherspoon and esure“Blue-chips opened in negative territory after US and Asian markets offered limited positive support overnight,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ Marks & Spencer’s shares slipped back in early trading after a 5.3% fall in pre-tax profits. M&S is making progress on its turnaround plan with encouraging results from its clothing & home...
7 November 2017
Imperial Brands, Associated British Foods and DCC“Blue-chips opened on the front foot following advances in the US and Asia,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Tobacco giant Imperial Brands topped the FTSE100 board after strong full-year results. The group has made gains in most of its priority markets and is stepping up its drive into next generation products, with new e-vapour...
6 November 2017
BTG, easyJet and AFH“Blue-chips made a downbeat start to the week following a mixed performance on markets in Asia this morning and with ongoing geopolitical and Brexit concerns continuing to weigh on sentiment,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Healthcare group BTG was the FTSE250’s biggest faller in early trading after a US court ruled that it breached...
3 November 2017
IAG, H&T and Smith & Nephew“The FTSE100 opened on the front foot and continued yesterday's rally, despite political turmoil in the UK and Europe, Brexit uncertainty and a mixed performance in the US overnight,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group was one of the biggest blue-chip risers in early...
3 November 2017
What does the first interest rate rise since 2007 mean for your finances?While a hike in interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% might not seem like a momentous event, it is the first increase by the Bank of England in over a decade and for many investors it will be the only rise they have ever experienced.
Although this is unlikely to signal a rapid increase in interest rates in the near future, investors attempting to...
2 November 2017
RSA Insurance, Howdens and BT“London's FTSE 100 index was virtually flat in early trading ahead of today's interest rate decision from the Bank of England and following mixed messages out of US and Asian markets overnight,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ RSA Insurance was one of the biggest blue-chip fallers in early trading after third quarter growth was...
1 November 2017
Lack of festive cheer disappoints shareholders in Next“A downbeat outlook for Christmas trading is weighing on Next today as the High Street bellwether’s shares slump to the bottom of the FTSE 100,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The reaction looks a bit harsh to me. After all, the company is keeping the mid-point of its profit forecasts unchanged, is ticking to its plan to pay a fourth...
31 October 2017
BP offers welcome dividend reassurance as cash flow starts to gush again“ BP’s best operating profit since early 2014 and the resulting huge improvement in cash flow are both helping to drive the oil major’s shares towards a five-year high as investors welcome the support the third-quarter earnings figures show for the company’s tempting dividend yield,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Based on consensus’...
31 October 2017
BP, Croda and Just Eat“Blue-chips opened in positive territory but ongoing issues in Catalonia and the Bank of England’s warning over City job losses in the event of ‘no deal’ Brexit stifled any significant upward move,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“ BP’s shares were up after underlying replacement cost profits for the first nine months of the year...
30 October 2017
easyJet, Lok'n Store and Millennium & Copthorne Hotels“The FTSE100 opened lower and ahead of this week's interest rate decision from the Bank of England,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Budget airline easyJet was an early riser after it confirmed it had agreed to buy part of failed airline Air Berlin’s operations for €40m. easyJet will lease up to 25 A320s and has started a recruitment...
27 October 2017
IAG, RBS and ATTRAQT“The FTSE100 started the final session of the trading week on the front foot following solid gains on Asia's main markets,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group was the biggest blue-chip faller despite record third quarter results. All the group’s companies, which also...
26 October 2017
How to make sure portfolios do not get entangled in a web of technology stocksA couple of weeks ago this column mentioned a throwaway comment provided by a shrewd fund manager that: “There is no value in momentum [stocks] and no momentum in value [stocks].”
This issue has reared its head again, as this column has attended events hosted by
Schroders, Fidelity and M&G which have covered a range of topics from emerging...
