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Towards the end of 2024, Trainline was chugging along quite nicely. Finally trading solidly above the 350p at which its 2019 IPO was priced after years of ups and downs. The company having been heavily disrupted by the pandemic and facing undulating concern over competitive threats.
Then, on 4 December 2024, news of the Labour Government’s Great British Railways proposals to renationalise the rail network emerged to derail the shares. The plans encompass the launch of a unified ticketing portal which could be disruptive for Trainline.
Today, the shares are 41% below the level at which they were listed and 64% below the all-time high of 562.5p they hit in the early weeks of 2020 before Covid intervened. In this article we look at how justified the concerns about Trainline are and what could determine the direction of travel for the stock in the future.
How Trainline and investment analysts see the threat from GBR
As discussed, Great British Railways, or GBR for short, will have its own ticketing platform, but the suggestion is the Government still wants to see a competitive market in this area. A further risk for Trainline is a simplification of ticket pricing would reduce the need for travellers to use its platform to help secure a good deal.
In a conversation with Deutsche Numis in January 2026 Pete Wood, Trainline’s chief financial officer, acknowledged the concern but said his company could even offer its white label or booking technology services to the nationalised service: “Of course we have a white label business, and we’ll look at interest if a procurement process [for GBR] comes our way. But to park that and talk about the business model, we will continue to innovate, and we’re confident with how we will show up against GBR.”
He added that there was a variety of work to be done before the GBR plans were brought to fruition, and that in the meantime Trainline would continue to invest and innovate and work to widen the gap.
Wood also acknowledged that it was unlikely that GBR will charge booking fees. “I don’t know that for sure,” he said. “But that’s our working assumption. Of course, that is true of all the train operating sites today. None of them have booking fees; they’re actually not allowed to charge them.”
Wood observed that Uber had entered the market around four years earlier without charging booking fees and had even offered credits for each train ride. He noted that although Uber gained a little share, it soon levelled off, which he viewed as evidence of the strength and trust in Trainline’s model.
Outside of the company, Berenberg analyst Alex Short says: ‘We continue to believe the perceived risks relating to the UK government’s plan to renationalise the train operating companies and simplify the fare structure are overdone, and we think the installed base of 18 million users in the UK and Trainline’s outstanding user experience will drive strong user retention and act as a competitive moat.’
Panmure Liberum analyst Sean Kealy does see conflicts of interest within the GBR set-up which could hurt Trainline but does note mitigations in the consultation bill published in November 2025. He says: “Our view is that these mitigations are supportive for Trainline, but not perfect. A more supportive outcome would have been for industry management functions to be rolled into the Office of Rail and Road (not GBR), or for the retail arm of GBR to be setup as an independent entity.
“Equally, a less supportive outcome would have included no structural mitigations to any conflicts of interest.”
How does Trainline make money?
Many of you may be familiar with and potentially even be users of Trainline’s services. It operates the leading digital rail ticketing platform in the UK, with a market share of around 60%. It also operates overseas in countries including France, Italy, Spain and Germany as well as other parts of Europe.
The company derives revenue from commissions on ticket sales from train operating companies and booking fees. In the UK these come in at 4.5% for every ticket sold and between 50p and a few pounds respectively.
It also has a Trainline Solutions arm which provides booking technology to businesses, travel firms and even rail operators themselves and sells ancillary products like travel insurance, hotel bookings and advertising on its platform.
The strategy has been one of reinforcing its dominant position in the UK and thereby positioning itself to benefit as an increasing proportion of tickets are sold online. Around half of UK rail tickets are still sold offline – which implies scope for future growth. The company has also been driving European expansion, though here the company has been somewhat stymied by state-owned operators resisting the liberation of these markets.
How is Trainline performing and what is its valuation?
The company reported strong first-half results in November. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) for the six-month period to 31 August 2025 was up 14% to £93 million with net ticket sales up 8% and adjusted free cash flow nudging 2% higher to £79 million. The company also lifted its guidance for full-year results. With EBITDA expected to increase by 10% to 13% up from the previous range of between 6% and 9%.
Trainline’s main lookalike and rival, Berlin-based Omio, is not listed on the stock market although is reportedly valued at around $1 billion despite apparently having lower ticket sales and EBITDA than Trainline.
Trainline has a market value in sterling of £818.1 million, a little more than $1.1 billion at current exchange rates, and trades on 8.9 times 12-month forecast earnings. This compares with an average price to earnings ratio of 17.7 times over the last two years. The company does not currently pay a dividend but is engaged in a £150 million share buyback programme.
What about the threat from AI?
Another competitive threat facing the business is AI agents which are already being used by people to book items like concert tickets. However, whether the providers would build their own underlying infrastructure to sell rail tickets is debatable and the company is developing its own capabilities in this area while also talking to AI platform operators about how its tech might be integrated with chatbots.
Tom Sieber: Content Editor
Tom Sieber is AJ Bell's Content Editor. He was previously the Editor of Shares Magazine. He has been with the business since 2012.
Tom is a regular contributor to the AJ Bell Money & Markets...
