20 December 2018
Kier“Rather than the traditional Santa rally, equities are enduring a Santa rout. A rate hike was widely expected when the US Federal Reserve met last night but the extremely negative market reaction reflects what was said alongside the decision by Fed chief Jerome Powell. Powell delivered a bit of a double whammy, flagging lots of worrying risks to...
19 December 2018
FTSE 100 earnings momentum falters as 2018 draws to a close“Positive earnings momentum helped to carry the FTSE 100 through the first half of the year, as analysts upgraded their profit forecasts and the index peaked on a closing basis at 7,877 in May, but the rate of increases slowed in the third quarter and came to a grinding halt in the fourth,” says Russ Mould, AJ Bell Investment Director.
“In the...
19 December 2018
GlaxoSmithKline“Investors are eagerly awaiting the FOMC meeting in the US later today to find out if there is going to be another interest rate hike. It increasingly looks like previous forecasts for one more hike this year and three in 2019 will have to be revised downwards. While we may get a hike today, concerns about global markets and tepid inflation in the...
18 December 2018
National Grid / Ofgem and Royal Dutch Shell“Further weakness in oil prices has served to weigh on shares in the oil sector and by default pull down the FTSE 100. Any movement in Royal Dutch Shell and BP have a direct influence on the direction of the blue chip index because they are among its largest constituents. “The FTSE 100 dropped 0.7% to 6,727 in early trading, also dragged down by...
17 December 2018
ASOS and SSE“A massive sell-off in retail stocks weighs on the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices with investors worried about disappointing Christmas trading. Mining stocks bucked the trend with a small advance. This included BHP which confirmed details of a $1.02 per share special dividend linked to the sale of its onshore US assets. Markets were also weak in...
14 December 2018
Balfour Beatty“There have been some troublesome figures coming out of China in 2018 and another batch has now served to drag down markets in Asia and Europe. They suggest that China is finding it hard to sustain high levels of economic growth. “China’s industrial production in November grew by 5.4%, below expectations of 5.9%, and retail sales grew at 8.1% which...
14 December 2018
Market falls leave FTSE 100 yielding almost 5% in 2019“The autumn stock market sell-off has boosted the forecast dividend yield for the FTSE 100 to 4.9% for 2019. Dividends paid out by the UK’s blue chip index are forecast to hit a new all-time high of £93.7 billion next year and as share prices have fallen this has pushed up the forecast dividend yield, providing a source of support for UK stocks...
13 December 2018
TUI“Theresa May’s victory at last night’s MP vote has given another lift to sterling, now trading at $1.267 as the market seems happier there will be consistency in the person leading the Brexit negotiations. “While there are still many unknowns regarding Brexit, not having to contend with a new Conservative leader and how they may pick up Brexit...
12 December 2018
Sainsbury’s and Superdry“News that Conservative MPs will vote later today on whether or not Theresa May should remain as their leader failed to knock markets off course. The pound nudged slightly higher to $1.2544 after May came out with fighting talk. “The UK-focused FTSE 250 index moved 0.1% higher to 17,677 and the more international-focused FTSE 100 index advanced 0.4...
11 December 2018
One year after the peak, what lessons can investors draw from Bitcoin’s collapse?“It is almost a year to the day (18 Dec’ 17) since Bitcoin peaked at $18,941, for a market value of $328 billion but the euphoria of 12 months ago has long since faded. After another failed rally, Bitcoin has almost halved again since the start of September to leave the cryptocurrency at $3,493, just above where it was in August 2017, before the...
11 December 2018
Ashtead and WPP“UK markets have started to bounce back after yesterday’s Brexit calamity. The FTSE 250, which is considered the benchmark index for UK-focused companies, has nudged up 0.2% to 17,526 although that still leaves it trading well below the 21,324 year-to-date high. “The FTSE 100 achieved a stronger lift, advancing 0.7% to 6,766 off the back of gains...
10 December 2018
Interserve and Hollywood Bowl“Monday looks like the calm before the storm for the UK stock market. A flat FTSE 100 and a small dip in the FTSE 250 suggest investors are sitting on their hands until Tuesday’s big Brexit showdown in parliament. “Among FTSE 100 stocks, gold miner Randgold Resources was the biggest riser, followed by drug maker AstraZeneca. “The biggest fallers...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook - Chapter one: UKThe FTSE All-Share trades within barely 10% of an all-time high that it set in Spring 2018 but investors might not guess as much, given the prevailing confusion over the Brexit talks, a fragile Government and dire warnings over the economy from the Bank of England and its Governor Mark Carney.
Sterling has acted as the main Brexit shock absorber...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook - Chapter two: USALike him or loathe him, markets are having to listen to President Trump and keep an eye on his Twitter account for good measure (even if his heavy use of the service has done precious little to help that particular company’s wobbly profit and loss account or share price).
It is hard to believe that the mid-term elections are already behind us and...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook – Chapter three: JapanThe dream lives on, at least for Prime Minister (PM) Shinzō Abe. The 2019 Rugby World Cup will be but a taster for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President, fresh from his victory in September’s party leadership contest. He has his eyes on the real political prize, which is Japan’s status as host of the 2020 Olympic Games.
If Abe can stay in...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook – Chapter four: AsiaIt could be argued that the Asian baby was rather thrown out with the Turkish bathwater in 2018, as a stronger dollar, weaker commodity prices and Istanbul’s foreign borrowing woes all served to weigh on emerging markets overall.
Those investors with substantial asset allocations to the Asian region will be content to ride out the storm, arguing...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook – Chapter five: Western EuropeSince 2012, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has done “whatever it takes” to keep the euro and the Eurozone’s economy on the road – but 2019 will usher in the next chapter in the story. The ECB stops adding to its QE scheme in December, and Draghi steps down next October.
Meanwhile, the impact of Brexit will (presumably) be felt...
6 December 2018
World Investment Outlook – Chapter six: Emerging MarketsThe themes which dominated in 2018 – key elections, the direction of the dollar, commodity prices and trade talks with America – are all likely to be just as influential in 2019 as Emerging Markets try to recover from a testing year.
Dollar strength, America’s hard-line stance on Iran and oil’s late-year retreat all hurt the Africa/Middle East...
6 December 2018
Defensives, DS Smith and Ted Baker“Investors are back in risk-off mode with markets falling in the UK, mainland Europe and across Asia. Markets are worried by numerous things: global economic growth, rising interest rates and the US/China trade war.
“The latter is certainly centre stage in today’s sell-off after Canadian authorities arrested the finance chief of Chinese tech firm...
5 December 2018
Stagecoach and Shire“So much for the Santa rally – the market has taken a tumble after US President Donald Trump assumed the alter ego of Tariff Man and poured cold water over hopes of a US/China trade war truce. Brexit concerns have also been thrown into the mix with ongoing doubts that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will get her Brexit deal approved in parliament...
4 December 2018
Ferguson and Travis Perkins“Markets in Europe took a step back on Tuesday following a strong start to the week. The FTSE 250 index of mid-cap companies slipped 0.2% while Germany’s Dax index dropped 0.5%. The exception was the FTSE 100 which stayed flat as gains in consumer goods stocks were offset by weakness in miners,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
Ferg...3 December 2018
McColl’s Retail and Stobart“The FTSE 100 had one of its best starts to a new trading week in a long time thanks to the new found peace between the US and China. The index was up 2.1% to 7,129 in early trading on Monday. “Mining stocks surged ahead, including Antofagasta, Evraz and Anglo American all achieving share price gains of between 6% and 7%, on hopes that there will...
30 November 2018
Miners hit by Chinese manufacturing setback / all eyes on G20“Mining stocks have taken a step back following disappointing manufacturing figures from China as the trade war with the US starts to bite,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director, AJ Bell.
“The official purchasing managers’ index for China’s manufacturing sector stalled at 50 in November, down from 50.2 in October, according to data from the...
29 November 2018
Unilever, Intu Properties and Banks“The FTSE 100 followed the direction of US markets last night by pushing ahead in early trading on Thursday. A 0.5% rise to 7,041 was also driven a mixture of banking shares rising off the back of the Bank of England’s stress tests and strength in miners and tobacco stocks. “Cautious remarks by the US Federal Reserve triggered a rally in US stocks...
28 November 2018
Brexit divides the UK stock market“The UK continues to be the most disliked region by fund managers, as shown in the most recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager survey, with professional investors underweight the region. This view is echoed by retail investors, who have been consistently selling UK funds since the EU referendum – with £10.5bn withdrawn from the funds...
28 November 2018
On The Beach and Experian“Every major market across Europe and Asia was flashing green on Wednesday, meaning that stocks were moving up. Utilities, telecoms, banks and miners helped to drive up the FTSE 100 by 0.4% to 7.042. “In the UK, all eyes will be on the Bank of England’s annual stress tests of lenders’ balance sheets with the results published at 4.30pm. On a global...
27 November 2018
Thomas Cook and Greggs“Markets were in limbo on Tuesday with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices experiencing minor declines with strength in utility stocks being offset by weakness in banks and oil producers. “Interestingly investors didn’t seem troubled by a new warning from US President Donald Trump who said he is likely to go ahead with a hike on tariffs on Chinese...
26 November 2018
Cake Box“Shares in London-listed companies which generate the majority of their earnings from the UK have been given a small lift on the latest Brexit news. However, the 0.6% rise in the FTSE 250 index is by no means large enough to suggest that investors are hungry for UK equities once more after a long downbeat period. “The fact that EU leaders have...
23 November 2018
Ibstock“Market have paused for breath in parts of the world after an adventurous few weeks. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 barely moved on Friday morning, mirroring a similarly static performance across mainland Europe. “It was a different story in Asia where China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 2.5% as investors sounded caution ahead of next week’s G20...
22 November 2018
Why the US housing market represents a real test of Federal Reserve policy“It may – or it may not – be a coincidence that global stock markets are wobbling just as the US Federal Reserve consistently increases interest rates and withdraws Quantitative Easing. Even if there is some cause and effect here, the central bank professes not to care, given chair Jay Powell’s public assertions that it is not his job to stop...
22 November 2018
Centrica and Mothercare“Hopes have been dashed that yesterday’s rally would be the start of a new recovery. The FTSE 100 was down 0.6% to 7,010 on Thursday morning amid notable weakness in utilities, telecoms and bank stocks. It is a similar story across Europe with Germany’s DAX index down 0.4%, France’s Cac 40 index down 0.5% and Spain’s IBEX 35 index falling 0.7%....
21 November 2018
SSP, Babcock and Kingfisher“Markets across Europe pushed ahead despite carnage on Wall Street last night. Leading the charge on the FTSE 100 were the banks and mining stocks. The FTSE 100 was 0.7% ahead in early trading and was doing its best to break back through the 7,000 mark,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
SSP“The signalled departure next year of...
20 November 2018
Entertainment One and easyJet“Markets are flashing red once more, following yesterday’s disastrous day on the US markets where tech stocks were hard hit. The FTSE 100 was down 0.4% in early trading on Tuesday, dragged down by weakness in banks and miners. It now trades below 7,000 and is down 9.4% year-to-date. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 2%,” says Russ Mould...
19 November 2018
Diploma“Investors appear to be regaining confidence after a volatile period last week with markets marching forward across the UK, mainland Europe and Asia on Monday morning. The FTSE 100 climbed 0.4% to 7,042 while the FTSE 250 advanced 0.3% to 18,647. “Oil prices continued to recover from recent weakness, putting a shine on natural resources stocks. UK...
16 November 2018
AstraZeneca, Hutchinson China MediTech and Kier“Brexit-induced panic seems to have faded with the markets in more upbeat mood on Friday. While both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 move up, investors will be watching like a hawk for any new indicators of whether parliament is likely to approve or reject Theresa May’s Brexit plan. “Among the large cap movers on the London market, miners and tobacco...
15 November 2018
Aston Martin Lagonda, Royal Mail and Card Factory“Dominic Raab’s resignation as Brexit Secretary didn’t go down well with currency markets, sending the pound down more than 1% against the euro and the US dollar. In contrast, the FTSE 100 was given a lift by global firms including miners which benefited from renewed strength in copper, aluminium and other metal prices. “Notable gains on the blue...
14 November 2018
British Land follows Land Securities in emphasising residential potential of its property assets“Whether it is down to hopes for a Brexit deal, a further decline in net debt or the increased dividend, shares in British Land are confounding bears of commercial real estate (and the UK economy more generally) by holding firm in early trading,” says Russ Mould, AJ Bell Investment Director.
“Value-seekers, who believe the shares are oversold on a...
13 November 2018
Vodafone and Taylor Wimpey“The FTSE 100 enjoyed a 0.5% rise to 7.086 in early trading on Tuesday, helped by gains in Vodafone and the banking sector,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
Vodafone“A large number of investors own Vodafone for one reason: the dividend. While it has been seen for years as an attractive income stock, it has actually been an abysmal...
12 November 2018
Babcock and Restaurant Group“The FTSE 100 was the best performing major stock market index across Europe and Asia on Monday, rising 0.4% to 7,135. Commodity producers and banks were the key drivers for the blue-chip index, helped by a rising oil price and chatter about HSBC accelerating its growth plans with a new push in Brazil,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ...
9 November 2018
AO World and Informa“The FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% in early trading on Friday to 7,096, rounding off a frustrating week for investors.
“Just as it looked like the US midterm election results would give a boost to markets around the world, momentum has been quickly lost.
“A falling oil price has troubled investors and shifted their focus back to concerns about a slowdown...
8 November 2018
Sainsbury's and Auto Trader“A wealth of corporate news has stirred new life into the market with the FTSE 100 rising 0.4% to 7,145. Pharma, banking and miners help to lead the blue-chip index higher,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
Sainsbury’s“Half year like-for-like sales growth of 0.6% for Sainsbury’s may show an acceleration from the 0.2% growth...
7 November 2018
Marks and Spencer, Persimmon and Redrow“A decline in the dollar following the US midterm elections has given a welcome boost to the mining sector as it will be cheaper for many foreign companies to buy dollar-denominated commodities. Interestingly there is also an unusual movement of both cyclical and defensive stocks rising in harmony.
“On the London market, stocks like United...
6 November 2018
Greene King, William Hill and Morrisons“European markets were looking a bit wobbly on Tuesday with the FTSE 100 and Germany’s Dax indices both down 0.1%. On the London market, strength among miners and financials was more than offset by weakness among construction firms and telecoms,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
Greene King“One of the London market’s longest...
5 November 2018
ITV and HiscoxA 0.2% decline in the FTSE 100 on Monday morning was driven by weakness in insurers and banks. The negative trend was also seen across Asia including a pullback in Hong Kong following last week’s rally. Markets are likely to remain choppy ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
ITV“Broadcaste...
2 November 2018
Barclays and Paddy Power“A 0.6% rise in the FTSE 100 on Friday to 7,158 puts the index at its highest level since early October. However, investors are unlikely to be celebrating too hard given the index still remains 6.9% down year-to-date.
“The FTSE 100’s star performers at the end of the week included construction rental group Ashtead, banking firm Standard Chartered...
1 November 2018
BT, Just Eat and Royal Dutch Shell“This week’s recovery rally has taken a small step back with the FTSE 100 dipping 0.2% on Thursday. In comparison, markets in mainland Europe continued to enjoy steady gains as did parts of Asia such as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index which jumped 1.75%.
“Oil stocks were out of favour, which has a negative impact on the FTSE 100 as its biggest...
31 October 2018
Next and William Hill“The markets are racing ahead following a very good session last night in the US where the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all posted gains in excess of 1.5%.
“It’s now the turn of European and Asian stocks to join the rally with the FTSE 100 shooting up 1.5% in early trading on Wednesday and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumping 2.2%.
“The latest rally means...
30 October 2018
Cash flow supports BP dividend and share price as oil major looks to start growing its output once more“For the second straight quarter in a row, BP has paid a quarterly dividend of 10.25 cents, up from 10 cents a year ago. That year-on-year increase, coupled with autumn’s slide in the share price, means the shares are offering a dividend yield of almost 6% for 2018 and 2019,” says Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director.
“The company still has to...
30 October 2018
Post-budget stock market reaction and Restaurant Group Post-budget stock market reaction“There are numerous potential winners and losers on the stock market from yesterday’s Budget and the market is now getting its first proper chance to price in this news.
“Some of the announcements would have been made while the market was still open yesterday, although many investors won’t have had time to digest...
29 October 2018
Budget 2018: our first thoughtsThe Budget failed to make a significant impact on the London stock market with the UK-focused FTSE 250 index moving up slightly during the start of Chancellor Philip Hammond’s speech, before giving up all of these gains and more.
While the index closed the day 1.17% higher at 18,566, all of the gains were ultimately attributable to this morning’s...
