19 May 2022
US margin debt falls again as investors’ appetite for risk recedesAccording to the latest set of data from American market regulator FINRA, margin debt – the amount of money borrowed by either professional or private investors in the US – has just fallen for the seventh time in ten months. Even the pandemic could not force such a retrenchment, so perhaps this is a sign that the mood music is changing.
Meme...
19 May 2022
KKR fires up a bid for power plant play ContourGlobalPower utility ContourGlobal has hardly blown out the lights since its listing on the London Stock Exchange in November 2017 but a bid from private equity for the power utility offers a reminder of valuable lessons for investors.
First, cash flow is king. Second, investing for yield and income can bring its long-term reward to patient portfolio...
19 May 2022
Target triggers retail rout and sends stocks tumbling, National Grid posts £4 billion profit, EasyJet aiming for pre-pandemic passenger numbers and Royal Mail at a crossroads“After the Walmart wobble on Tuesday, Target struck terror into the hearts of the US retail sector and was a big contributing factor behind the worst day for US markets since 2020 on Wednesday,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The extent of the impact of inflation on these giants of American retailing has woken investors up, once...
18 May 2022
UK stocks shrug off inflation figures, slimmed-down Aviva shines, Premier Foods to lift prices, and Burberry and Watches of Switzerland show the rich are still spending“Investing is an expectations game so it’s not really a surprise that the market has shrugged off the highest levels of inflation in the UK in 40 years given the number was actually slightly behind forecasts,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“People will already be starting to work out when inflation prices might peak and attempting...
17 May 2022
FTSE higher, Imperial Brands impresses and Land Securities reports record leasing in central London offices“This is not the message you want to hear from the Bank of England Governor. Andrew Bailey as a latter-day King Canute has told everyone he and the Bank are helpless in the face of runaway inflation,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“But despite this, and employment data showing a record jump in pay to underline his point, the FTSE...
16 May 2022
Vodafone brings more excitement to telecoms sector, Greggs warns of cost pressures and Made.com hit by cost-of-living crisis Vodafone“Four years ago, the telecoms sector was deemed as dull as dishwater, with no sign of any excitement. Since then, we’ve had Vodafone spin off part of its assets as Vantage Towers, Euskaltel bought by Masmovil, BT form a joint venture for its sports arm and attract a strategic investor at the group level, and private equity firm KKR try to...
13 May 2022
FTSE recovers after recession rout, bitcoin bounces back and Sage impresses“After the recession rout there was a calmer feel to market proceedings on Friday,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“A late recovery on Wall Street on Thursday may have helped investors’ mood but the up and down nature of trading is a reminder of just how febrile things are right now.
“It feels financial assets are starting to reflect...
12 May 2022
UK wage growth and inflation figures: 17 and 18 MayThe Bank of England has pushed through its fourth interest rate increase in sixth months after its warning that inflation could reach 10% towards the end of 2022. The central bank has also warned of possible recession in 2023 to show what a difficult balancing act it has, between taming inflation on the one hand but not jacking up interest rates so...
12 May 2022
FTSE slumps, JD Sports holds firm, Rolls-Royce’s good news ignored, and BT agrees sport venture“The FTSE 100 tumbled after weak UK GDP numbers and higher than expected US inflation figures stoked fears about a global economic slowdown. Investors were quick to dump commodity producers on the grounds that demand could fall in the coming months,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“Tech-heavy Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust...
11 May 2022
BP’s plans mean FTSE 100 share buybacks are on track to set new-all time high in 2022The debate over BP’s bumper profits and the rights and wrongs of a windfall tax looks set to continue but the facts of the matter are that the oil major’s latest plans to return cash to its investors mean the FTSE 100’s members are poised to set a new all-time record for share buybacks in 2022.
BP’s plan to buy back $2.5 billion of stock in the...
11 May 2022
Gas prices surge in Europe, TUI reports strong recovery and Compass lifts revenue guidance“Another day, another reminder of the energy crisis facing Europe as Ukraine stems the flow of Russian gas,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Prices surged on this latest threat to supply which will concentrate European minds on the need to find alternative energy sources. In the meantime it only adds to the inflationary concerns...
10 May 2022
Dividend stocks to the rescue as European stocks avoid US slump“After yet another miserable session in the US yesterday, Europe and pockets of Asia managed to avoid the rout and push ahead on Tuesday. This is unexpected given market sentiment is weak and the VIX ‘fear’ index yesterday jumped to its second highest closing price in the past 12 months,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“Stocks in...
9 May 2022
FTSE 100 weighed down by US, Chinese and Russian risks, Rightmove boss steps down, and Shaftesbury and Capital & Counties in merger talks“The optimism that followed the US Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday feels a long way off on Monday morning as the FTSE 100 dropped to its lowest levels since mid-March,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The continuing impact of Beijing’s zero-Covid policy in China and concerns about the Fed’s next moves are helping to pile the...
6 May 2022
Why Wednesday’s post-Fed rally may have been a bear trapWhen Jack Nicholson was playing The Joker in Tim Burton’s first Batman film in 1989, he was so well paid that he reportedly told a fellow cast member after just a week’s shooting, ‘Ah well, that’s another Matisse.’ Financial markets are starting to rack up some big numbers, too, but in this case the money is flowing out, not in.
After Thursday’s...
6 May 2022
What higher interest rates have meant for US stocks“The US Federal Reserve’s determination to continue tightening monetary policy, via both higher interest rates and sterilisation of Quantitative Easing, is likely to make life more difficult for investors, if history is any guide,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Given that benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields are still running well...
6 May 2022
Market mood changes amid heavily selling in US, while IAG and IHG still face a fragile comeback“The market mood seems to have turned on a sixpence,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Investors had initially taken Fed chair Jay Powell’s guidance that a 0.75 percentage point increase in rates was unlikely as a reason to be positive.
“However, Wall Street seemed to change its mind overnight having had time to chew it over, and...
5 May 2022
Tough times ahead for Next and Shell profit beats expectations amid windfall tax talk“Markets have been fearing interest rate hikes for some time, so it is understandable to question why equities soared after rates went up. It’s also more confusing when you consider the Federal Reserve pushed through twice the level of rate hikes you would normally expect from a central bank meeting,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell...
4 May 2022
FTSE lower ahead of crunch Fed meeting, Joules and Aston Martin change CEOs, everything’s going wrong for Boohoo, and Wetherspoons faces costs pressures“The FTSE 100 was lower on Wednesday as investors anticipated the latest decision on interest rates from the US Federal Reserve – where a half percentage point rise is widely expected,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Given the quantum of the raise is almost an open secret at this stage, all the attention will focus on any guidance...
3 May 2022
BP’s numbers to boost windfall tax talk, FTSE dips after bank holiday break BP“ BP’s first quarter results will do nothing to quell talk of a windfall tax on oil and gas companies,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The oil giant might have hoped attention would focus on an apparent $20.4 billion loss – created by impairments linked to its exit of interests in Russia – but the strongest underlying profit in a...
29 April 2022
Amazon and Apple disappoint the market, NatWest’s gloomy outlook, AstraZeneca sees waning vaccine sales, AO World delays results and Reckitt posts sales growth Amazon / Apple“The latest updates from tech giants Amazon and Apple contained enough negative material to spook investors, with shares in both stocks down in after-hours trading,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“They round off what’s been a testing week for investors in US stocks or global funds, given they are popular investments...
28 April 2022
Meta gives markets a lift, Unilever’s weak pricing power, Argos becomes a thorn in Sainsbury’s side and Barclays’ beat overshadowed by structured products hit“If you were looking for candidate to come to the tech sector’s rescue it might not have been Meta Platforms given its reputation has taken a real battering of late,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Apparently though, expectations for the company behind Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp were pitched at such a level that merely doing...
28 April 2022
Five questions that Amazon must answer in its first-quarter resultsAmazon’s fourth-quarter results for 2021 were weak, guidance for the first-quarter of 2022 was poor and the gambit of a stock split coupled with a $10 billion share buyback has subsequently failed to support the shares.
They are down by more than a fifth from their all-time high of last July, to technically leave them in a bear market, and in...
27 April 2022
Lloyds focuses on vulnerable customers, tech stocks slump and energy prices jump again Lloyds“ Lloyds’ first quarter update reveals a lot about the state of the UK economy. The country has been getting back on its feet, which is reflected by an increase in lending and savings deposits for Lloyds. However, the outlook is less than rosy,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“It’s serious when a bank talks about...
27 April 2022
What could happen to markets if Apple posts a rotten quarter?“Name changes mean that the sextet of Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Netflix and Microsoft are no longer the FAANGM stocks but MAAANM and it’s not just the acronyms that are starting to jar. They have lost $2.1 trillion in combined market value between them since December, a drop sharp enough to leave five of the six in ‘bear market’ territory...
26 April 2022
Twitter takeover still not a done deal, HSBC falls as inflation bites, Taylor Wimpey sees strong demand, ABF to take Primark margin hit“The fact Twitter’s share price is trading below Elon Musk’s offer price shows that parts of the market remain skeptical over whether this deal will complete,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“The social media platform is currently trading at $51.92 despite the board agreeing to sell the company for $54.20 per share. This...
25 April 2022
FTSE 100 slumps amid Beijing lockdown talks, Anglo American takes a hit in Chile and activist investor attacks Just Eat management“The markets have fallen out of bed in a big way on Monday after a big sell-off in Asia amid fears of a Covid lockdown in Beijing,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The prospect of further restrictions in China could lead to a poisonous mix of further inflationary pressure, as supply chains in the so-called ‘factory of the world’ get...
22 April 2022
Barclays first-quarter results: 28 April"The big US banks have, to some degree at least, set the tone for the Big Five FTSE 100 firms, with a return to taking loan loss provisions (rather than writing back 2020’s provisions in 2021), increased investment in digital services and lower levels of income from investment banking operations weighing on earnings, but with higher interest rates...
21 April 2022
Tesla outpaces quarterly expectations, miners drag on FTSE and THG becomes a bid target Tesla“While all the focus may be on its founder’s attempt to takeover Twitter, Tesla shares unsurprisingly charged up after market hours in the US yesterday as it comfortably outpaced quarterly expectations,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“The electric vehicle manufacturer saw a seriously impressive gear change in sales and...
20 April 2022
Netflix sees radical changes to business model, markets dip and Just Eat mulls Grubhub sale Netflix“Signs of trouble have been growing stronger in recent months for Netflix and now we’ve had the full warning that growth is below expectations,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
“Its reaction? We’ve got the full kitchen sink. Likely pricing changes, the prospect of advertisements when you use its platform and a new strategy...
19 April 2022
Stocks muted in London while across the pond Netflix prepares to release quarterly results“There was a muted return to trading after the Easter break in London with little to excite investors and plenty of nagging worries bubbling away in the background,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“Energy levels may pick up through the course of the week as the quarterly results season in the US gets into full swing.
“All eyes will...
14 April 2022
FTSE 100 grounded despite strong US cues, Dunelm impresses against a tough backdrop“Despite the tailwind of a US market which flew higher amid strong numbers for Delta Airlines, the FTSE 100 was firmly grounded ahead of the Easter break, trading modestly lower on Thursday morning,” says Danni Hewson, Financial Analyst at AJ Bell.
“The top riser was British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines which took heart from...
13 April 2022
How to navigate the ESG mazeThe performance tide has turned against ESG funds of late, as growth stocks have floundered, and oil and gas companies have profited from rising energy prices. That won’t stop money flowing into responsible investments though. There is genuine consumer demand for these products, and the investment industry has sunk a lot of marketing dollars into...
13 April 2022
Inflation news boosts miners and weighs on retailers, while Tesco’s results are overshadowed by earnings warning“The latest UK inflation figure makes for ugly reading, but it shouldn’t really be a shock to the markets. If anything, inflation could get even worse from here,” says Danni Hewson, Financial Analyst at AJ Bell.
“When investors see high inflation figures, they typically look to put money into companies that thrive in an inflationary environment...
12 April 2022
FTSE slips again, European banking names slump and ASOS is in the doldrums“Another day, another decline for key equity indices. European stocks were in the doldrums as investors fretted about inflation, politics, consumer spending and more,” says Danni Hewson, Financial Analyst at AJ Bell.
“Corporate news flow is picking up which is giving investors a reason to want to trade the markets, but mixed messages from these...
11 April 2022
Markets jump around amid election and interest rate jitters, Ascential eyes potential break-up“It’s a difficult time to be an investor given how markets stubbornly refuse to break out into a decent rally. So far this year we’ve had enough ups and downs to make anyone owning shares and bonds travel sick,” says Danni Hewson, Financial Analyst at AJ Bell.
“The new trading week got off to another mixed start, with markets initially down across...
8 April 2022
FTSE 100 forecast to deliver a 5.4% total cash return in 2022The FTSE 100’s total dividend pay-out is expected to reach £81.2 billion in 2022, compared to £78.5 billion in 2021, equating to a yield of 3.9%. Total payments peaked at £85.2 billion in 2018 and 2022 is expected to get closer to that mark.
Ninety-seven FTSE 100 firms are expected to pay a dividend in 2022, against 91 in 2021 and 85 in 2020, as...
8 April 2022
Banks and commodities stocks put FTSE 100 on course for a strong end to the week as wages soar“The FTSE 100 looked set for a positive end to the week, taking its cue from a strong finish to a turbulent trading session on Wall Street overnight,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
“Commodities firms and financial stocks, the latter boosted by expectations of faster rate hikes, helped lead the charge higher.
“Investors continue to...
7 April 2022
Gooch stumped by covid even as orders recover“It may be headquartered in Ilminster, Somerset, but Gooch & Housego has a worldwide reach and normally a profit alert from the electrical and electronic components expert would raise concerns about global growth,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“On this occasion, orders are still coming in and the problem seems to be that the AIM...
7 April 2022
Sober start for stocks as the Fed looks to get tough, and Entain's online dip won't diminish its takeover appeal“European markets started in fairly sober mood – with UK stocks no exception – unsurprising perhaps given some tough rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve on interest rates and the latest round of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia yesterday,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Both the cure, higher interest rates, and the disease...
6 April 2022
Worries over Fed action trouble markets, and more housebuilders sign up to fire safety pledge“6 April marks the start of the new tax year and in theory eager UK investors flush with cash will be rushing to deploy their new £20,000 ISA allowance. However, early trading on Wednesday didn’t suggest a flood of money going into the markets, with the FTSE 100 flat at 7,613 and markets generally weak in Europe and Asia,” says Russ Mould...
5 April 2022
FTSE flat, Homeserve and Moonpig in the spotlight, and the market tries to guess who might buy Channel 4“After another decent showing on Wall Street, Asia tried its best to sustain the positive momentum including a 2.1% rally in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and a 0.9% rise in China’s SSE index,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“Europe was mixed, including a 0.3% rise in Germany’s Dax and a flat performance from France’s Cac 40 index.
“Oil...
4 April 2022
Aviation sector in a mess as staff issues derail recovery, and FTSE 100 higher despite grim news from Ukraine“The airline industry has continued its run of bad luck, though some of its pain is self-inflicted,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Hot on the heels of long delays at Heathrow and Manchester airports is news that EasyJet has cancelled 100 flights and British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines also unable to operate...
1 April 2022
Chill in the air for markets ahead of important US jobs figures“With the weather having turned from blue skies to snow showers in the matter of a week, there is also a chill in the air for the markets,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“European markets have frozen still amid concerns about financial pressures on consumers and businesses, and growing concern about a slowdown in global economic...
31 March 2022
S&U posts another dividend increase as profits rebound“A huge drop in loan impairments, sensible lending policies and strong collections all mean that specialist finance provider S&U is making the most of an upturn in demand for both cars and property refurbishments in the UK,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“A £33 million drop in charges for bad loans underpinned a £29 million jump in...
31 March 2022
FTSE up, oil prices lower on reports Biden wants to flood the market, and Trainline shares soar on commission rate relief“It has felt a bit like the FTSE 100 was singlehandedly being kept afloat by the big oil stocks, BP and Shell, in recent weeks but Thursday’s modest move higher for the index shows it is more than a one-trick pony with both these heavyweights lower in early trading,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“BP and Shell fell thanks to a slump...
30 March 2022
Bond markets signal recession warning, contrasting fortunes for miners Polymetal and Petropavlovsk, and Team17 quantifies hit from Russia/Ukraine war“Recession is the word of the day after an important warning sign was triggered on the markets,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“Last night the yield on two-year US government bonds rose above that of the 10-year note, causing an inverted yield curve – something that has historically preceded a recession.
“Traditionally...
29 March 2022
FTSE 100 up on hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks, AG Barr now ahead of pre-Covid earnings and Bellway lifts house price guidance“Having tripped over on Monday afternoon amid concern about China lockdowns and the conflict in Ukraine the FTSE 100 sprang back to its feet on Tuesday on hopes the latest round of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv might yield tangible progress,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“Suggestions the Russian side are softening some of...
28 March 2022
FTSE up on Ukraine-Russia peace talks as Shanghai locks down, and Ted Baker fights off takeover interest“It almost feels like we’ve stepped back in time two years as lockdowns in China once again rock the markets,” says AJ Bell Investment Director Russ Mould.
“The two-day restrictions imposed in Shanghai are evidence that the pandemic is not yet over and inevitably, given the implications for global growth, have put oil prices under pressure.
“It...
25 March 2022
Big tech in spotlight as EU clamps down on anti-competitive actions, and Petropavlovsk could be facing a cash flow crisis“It’s going to be an interesting day on the markets when the US wakes up, given how the European Union has firmed up plans to get heavy on anti-competitive practices among giant tech firms,” says Russ Mould, Investment Director at AJ Bell.
“So far pre-market indicative prices show minimal change in the prices of Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta...
24 March 2022
What does US bond market blitz mean for stock markets (and the economy)?It was former US President Bill Clinton’s economic adviser James Carville who said that if he were reincarnated, he would like to come back as the bond market because then ‘you can intimidate everybody.’ Now that US bond yields are surging and prices are falling, stock market investors need to seriously think about whether it is time to be...
